Rapid Artillery Assistance
The Czech initiative to supply artillery shells to Ukraine is actually the result of three active factors. Firstly, Europe is compelled to start paying for its security in the face of the prospect of Russian invasion. Secondly, Washington managed to persuade European allies to make more significant contributions to their own security. Thirdly, even relatively small European countries, which are new EU members, demonstrate leadership and capability in caring for pan-European security.
The foresight of Czech President Petr Pavel, a former high level military officer and former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee (2015-2018), who proposed the Czech artillery initiative for Ukraine, is easily explained by his military background. He had a highly successful military career in the Czechoslovak People's Army while the country was in the Soviet Warsaw Pact military bloc. But once the Velvet Revolution occurred in the country, he, like most Czech officers, pledged allegiance to the Czech people.
Photo: During his time within NATO from 2015 to 2018, Czech President Petr Pavel observed the consequences of the Russian annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014 and the Kremlin's hybrid intervention in eastern Ukraine. Source: Petr Pavel
During his time within NATO from 2015 to 2018, he observed the consequences of the Russian annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014 and the Kremlin's hybrid intervention in eastern Ukraine. He also had within his purview monitoring and countering the rise of Chinese influence. So with the potential risks and threats arising from Russian actions, Petr Pavel was more than familiar.
A Pause that Kills
Nearly six months saw a difficult course of disputes in Washington over aid to Ukraine. Finally, in April 2024, a package of almost $61 billion in aid was approved by both houses of the US Congress and signed by President Joe Biden. Internal political disputes, increased threats in the Middle East and the Pacific region distracted Washington from the rapid growth of the threat to its European partners from Russia, which recovered from the blows of the Ukrainian army in 2023.
Since autumn 2023, when actual assistance to Ukraine from foreign partners dwindled, Russian forces have been using up to 10,000 shells per day. In 2024, Russia could receive nearly three million shells from its factories and from North Korea.
Photo: North Korea is providing shells to Russia, which are then used in Ukraine. Source: Telegraf UA
The pause in receiving arms has been costly for the Ukrainian military. Since October 2023, Ukraine has lost 583 square kilometres (225 square miles) of territory in the east of the country, primarily due to a lack of artillery. This included the loss of a vital defensive hub in the east of the country in the city of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast (population around 32,000 before hostilities).
The most significant factors on the front line hindering Ukrainian forces are the overwhelming advantage of Russian forces in the number of shells they can use and the continued dominance in the air.
To overcome Russian air dominance, numerous air defence assets and modern modifications of the F-16 are needed, which are about to arrive in Ukraine along with Ukrainian pilots completing their training. Long-range missiles are also needed, allowing Ukrainian forces to strike at near-front Russian airfields and military logistics bases. And all of this requires a lot of "homework" - from training in the use of complex weapons to advancing political decisions on supplies themselves.
Petr Pavel has highlighted that the Russian artillery advantage could be quickly neutralised if Ukraine manages to overcome its current shortage of shells. Pavel, who is well-acquainted with the proficiency of Ukrainian artillerymen, knows that their skill in hitting targets with limited ammunition, supplemented by their own developments and Western artillery reconnaissance systems, surpasses that of their Russian counterparts. However, the deficiency in shell quantity still leaves Ukrainian forces behind.
Was this shortage of shells unexpected to Ukraine's European allies? Not at all, as they had previously announced the supply of a million shells by March 2024. Unfortunately, by this spring, it was finally acknowledged that this initiative had not come to fruition.
So, the Czech Republic began pushing a new initiative in the autumn of 2023 to purchase shells for Ukraine, including from outside the European Union. The initiative aims to acquire approximately one million shells, including NATO calibres (155 mm, 105 mm, etc.) as well as former Soviet calibres (152 mm, 122 mm), which still form a part of Ukraine’s artillery arsenal.
The first batches of these shells reportedly reached Ukraine in April, in addition to the munitions received from a $300 million aid package from the USA in March. These supplies have started to tip the balance on the front lines in favour of the Ukrainians, although not radically so yet.
Photo: The USA and EU support Ukraine powerfully, yet not consistently. Source: The Gaze, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Doubling This Initiative
With summer fast approaching, along with the heightened risk of Russian offensives, the Ukrainian military’s demand for shells is increasing as they prepare to counter Russian attacks.
In April, it was announced that the Czech-led initiative to supply munitions to Ukraine aims to provide a total of 1.5 million artillery shells over the year, potentially helping Kyiv address its deficit in firepower. This was confirmed by Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala during his visit to the USA on April 15-16. President Joe Biden highly commended the Czech initiative. Both leaders agreed to continue supporting Ukraine, which has been resisting Russian aggression for over two years.
"President Biden greatly appreciated the Czech initiative on ammunition, and we also discussed the situation in the Middle East and related issues," stated Prime Minister Petr Fiala.
According to a speech by Fiala published on the Czech government website on April 16, the plan, which positions the Czech Republic as a mediator in purchasing shells outside the European Union, has already secured the delivery of 500,000 shells. Approximately twenty countries have joined the initiative, including Germany, the Netherlands, Canada, and Poland.
For instance, two days after the visit of the Czech Prime Minister to the USA, the Netherlands officially pledged to support the Czech Republic's plan to purchase ammunition for Ukraine from outside the EU. The defence ministers of the Netherlands and the Czech Republic signed an agreement on this on 18 April. The Netherlands will finance this initiative with €250 million.
Prime Minister Petr Fiala confirmed in Brussels that, thanks to the Czech initiative, half a million artillery rounds have already been acquired. He also announced contracts for nearly 200,000 more rounds and shared prospects for purchasing an additional 300,000 units. In total, this could reach one million rounds, but this is likely just the beginning.
Photo: Prime Minister Petr Fiala confirmed in Brussels that, thanks to the Czech initiative, half a million artillery rounds have already been acquired. Source: Petr Fiala
Importantly, the Czech initiative is not isolated. In addition to the USA's efforts to supply arms and ammunition to Ukraine, the UK's initiative also deserves mention. During a visit to Poland last week, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed that the UK would provide an additional £500 million on top of the £2.5 billion in military aid already promised to Ukraine in 2024. This will fund additional missiles, ammunition, armoured vehicles, and all-terrain vehicles. He made this announcement during meetings with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Ultimately, this increases Western Europe's chances of eliminating the Russian threat, and offers Ukraine a chance to restore its territorial integrity. However, the next challenge is the restoration of Europe's defence industry, as the global situation heats up.