The Great Undersea Cable War
Two incidents involving submarine communication cables in the Baltic Sea have caused significant concern not only among major telecom providers but also within governments. On 29 November, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the UN agency for digital technology, and the International Cable Protection Committee (ICPC), a leading industry organisation supporting submarine cable protection, established the International Advisory Board on Submarine Cable Resilience. This occurred on the same day the restoration of damaged submarine cables was announced. Why such activity, considering cable damage is relatively common—up to 200 incidents occur annually worldwide? The answer likely lies in Russia’s suspected targeting of EU and NATO undersea infrastructure, with the two recent incidents in the Baltic Sea strongly resembling acts of sabotage.
The events of 18 November in the Baltic Sea were suspicious enough to dismiss accidental causes for the submarine cable damage. Resilience experts typically identify three common causes of such incidents:
- Negligence by fishing vessels.
- Improper anchoring.
- Natural factors, including ageing equipment and natural disasters.
However, the cases involving cables connecting Germany with Finland and Lithuania with Sweden were far more intriguing. As of writing, the Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3, suspected of causing the damage, remains anchored in the Kattegat Strait under surveillance by Swedish and Danish naval ships. According to monitoring data, the ship had travelled from Russia’s Ust-Luga port, reportedly heading towards Egypt’s Port Said, although its ultimate destination could be different.
Suspicious Circumstances
The Yi Peng 3 is a bulk carrier, measuring 225 metres long with a carrying capacity of approximately 40,000 tonnes. If the vessel’s anchor was mishandled, it managed to damage two critical submarine cables simultaneously—a highly unlikely feat.
The Swedish government has issued inquiries to China and is pressing for the vessel to dock at a local port to facilitate investigations. So far, Beijing has not responded to the incident. Interestingly, similar incidents occurred in autumn 2023 and 2022.
On 8 October 2023, submarine cables connecting Estonia to Finland and Sweden were damaged. There were substantiated suspicions that this was not an accident but deliberate interference, coinciding with the presence of only Chinese and Russian ships in the area.
On 21 October 2022, cables in the strait between Scotland and the Shetland Islands were damaged. The suspected saboteur was Russia’s so-called research vessel Akademik Boris Petrov. Initially, the ship’s declared route was from the Baltic Sea through the English Channel to the Atlantic Ocean, en route to South America. However, it deviated significantly, taking a more northern route past British naval bases. A Dutch naval vessel, HNLMS Tromp, intercepted and escorted the Russian vessel out of British waters.
These incidents tend to occur in late autumn, around Western Europe. This timing coincides with the onset of harsh weather, complicating repair efforts, providing a logical explanation for the seasonal pattern.
Defending Communication Infrastructure
Submarine cable networks are the backbone of global telecommunications. According to the ITU, approximately 99% of global data traffic relies on these channels. "More than 99% of international data exchange occurs via submarine cables, making their resilience a global imperative," said ITU Secretary-General Doreen Bogdan-Martin. "The Advisory Board will mobilise global experts to ensure the resilience of this vital digital infrastructure against disasters, accidents, and other risks", explained Bogdan-Martin.
The restoration of two Baltic Sea cables required ten days of intensive work and specialised equipment unavailable to the affected countries. This situation suggests hostile actors may be testing NATO’s ability to repair and protect cables through monitoring and patrolling. These challenges were a focal point of the “Cold Winds-24” military exercises in the Baltic Sea in late November, involving NATO 30 naval vessels.
The creation of the International Advisory Board on Submarine Cable Resilience is expected to draw greater attention to the issue. While Doreen Bogdan-Martin mentioned "other causes" of cable damage in her remarks, the ITU has not yet explicitly named the perpetrators. Perhaps this will change as national governments conduct more thorough investigations.