The Fog of War Surrounds Kursk

Ukrainian forces, in an unspecified number, have advanced into Russian territory, moving an indeterminate distance towards Moscow, which lies just over 500 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. The Ukrainian command is maintaining strict silence on the scale and pace of the offensive, while Russian officials and military personnel appear disoriented. However, it is already clear that Ukrainian forces have taken control of the town of Sudzha, a key gas hub for pipeline supplies to Western Europe. The EU and the United States regard the Ukrainian attack across the border as a legitimate means of defence against Russia’s invasion, which has been ongoing for two and a half years.

For three consecutive days, Ukrainian forces have been advancing deeper into Russian territory from the section of the border where Ukraine’s Sumy region meets Russia’s Kursk region. This section of the border was until recently considered relatively quiet. The word "relatively" means that Russian forces regularly shelled Ukrainian border settlements with whatever weapons they chose, from light firearms to glide bombs and even ballistic missiles. The Russians also actively used various types of unmanned aerial vehicles for shelling.

Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups regularly attempted to infiltrate Ukrainian territory across the border. One such group, composed of commandos from Russian special forces, was eliminated by Ukrainian forces in the second half of July, precisely on the territory of the Sumy region.

In March of this year, fighters from anti-Putin armed opposition units—the "Freedom of Russia" Legion, the "Russian Volunteer Corps," and the "Siberian Battalion"—conducted raids into Russian territory, even temporarily taking control of the village of Tyotkino. However, regular Ukrainian forces did not enter Russian territory, and there were no major battles here last year, unlike in the Kharkiv region (Ukraine), which borders Sumy region to the east. In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces attempted to launch a large-scale invasion in May 2024, but Ukrainian forces stopped the Russian advance and even pushed them back to the border in some areas.

Overall, the most intense fighting on the Ukrainian front in recent months has taken place in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces are attempting to push Ukrainian forces back to at least the administrative borders of the region.

But suddenly, on 6 August, the landscape of the war in Ukraine changed. Judging by the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin had to comment on the situation on 7 August, significant changes are occurring. Kyiv remains demonstratively silent about events in the Kursk region, while Moscow has announced that its forces are engaged in intense battles against Ukrainian troops.

Photo: During Their Advance on Russian Territory in the Kursk Region, Ukrainian Soldiers Captured Several Hundred Russian Military Prisoners Source: Screenshot from a combat drone video by the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Silent or Deceptive

The acting governor of Kursk region, Alexey Smirnov, announced the imposition of a state of emergency in the border region. Moscow remains silent about its military losses, while the Russian National Guard has reportedly strengthened security around the Kursk nuclear power plant, which houses four 1 GW reactors.

It is not exactly known how far Ukrainian forces have advanced, but it is confirmed that they have taken control of the town of Sudzha, with a population of about 5,000, located 12 km from the border, 105 km from the city of Kursk, and 530 km from Moscow.

During a briefing, the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, stated that the Ukrainian offensive involved up to 1,000 troops, although initial reports shortly after the incursion mentioned a figure of around 300. On 7 August, Gerasimov claimed that Ukrainian forces had been pushed back to the border. However, on 8 August, Russian military personnel and bloggers were already complaining on their Telegram accounts that the Ukrainians were advancing with the use of a large number of drones, electronic warfare systems, and well-trained assault groups.

Photo: During shelling of settlements in the Sumy region, Russian forces use cluster munitions. Source: State Emergency Service of Sumy Region

Kyiv remains silent on events in the Kursk region. There is no information about the pace of the advance, the composition of the forces, or the use of heavy equipment. Only social media videos suggest that Ukrainian forces have captured hundreds of Russian soldiers and are continuing their advance.

As of the morning of 9 August, the situation appeared to be that Ukrainian forces had taken control of the gas transportation station in Sudzha, from which transit pipelines branch out to supply gas from Russia to Western Europe, particularly Slovakia and Hungary. In 2023, these pipelines exported approximately 14 billion cubic metres of gas, about half of Russia’s gas exports to Western Europe. As of 8 August, the Ukrainian company Ukrtransgaz had not reported any suspension of Russian gas transit to Europe.

There were also unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian advances towards the town of Lgov, near which the Kursk nuclear power plant is located.

Ukraine No Longer Hindered in Its Defence

The fog surrounding the advance of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region will eventually clear, but for now, the reactions of Ukraine's partners to these events are particularly noteworthy.

In Washington, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated on 7 August that the United States is seeking to understand Ukraine's objectives regarding the incursion and had no prior knowledge of the operation.

"...defending itself against Russian aggression"

Karine Jean-Pierre, White House Press Secretary:

"We are going to reach out to the Ukrainian military to learn more about their objectives. But we have supported Ukraine as it defends itself against Russia's aggression. We believe it is obviously important to do so, as we are talking about democracy and freedom. And so we will continue to do that. As for this specific operation, we are going to connect with them to understand their goal. We are going to remain focused on ensuring they have everything they need to defend against Russia's aggression. We must remember that there are Russian troops in that region. They are in Russia's region, and from there, they attack Ukraine. And we cannot forget that. But our policy has not changed. Certainly, we will continue to support Ukraine as it continues to defend itself."

Transcript from the 7 August briefing

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated a day after the events in the Kursk region began that the US policy regarding Ukraine’s use of American weapons on Russian territory remains unchanged, and Ukraine's current actions do not violate this policy. "All of these decisions remain with Ukraine," he explained. He also added that while the State Department is in communication with the Ukrainians regarding this specific operation, it is appropriate for the Ukrainian side to speak publicly about these events, not the Americans.

A similar stance is taken by the European Commission’s foreign policy arm, as indicated by a statement from the spokesperson for the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Peter Stano. During a briefing on 8 August, he declared: "We believe that Ukraine is conducting a legitimate defensive war against unlawful aggression, and within this legitimate right to defend itself, Ukraine has the right to strike the enemy wherever it deems necessary, whether on its own territory or on enemy territory."

Thus, Ukraine’s key partners consider its actions in Russia's Kursk region to be entirely legal and permissible. This opens up considerable possibilities for Kyiv regarding asymmetric responses.