West is Already at War: Hybrid Attacks are Intensifying amid Trump's Flirtation with Putin
The West is already in a state of hybrid war with Russia, although many continue to perceive it as a potential threat rather than a reality. How much time is left before a direct clash? Sabotage of critical infrastructure, recruitment through social media, manipulation of migration flows, and political destabilization are all part of the Kremlin's strategy.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, who has returned to the White House, is already taking steps that could significantly weaken the Western front against Russia. The weak position of the United States not only opens the door for Moscow to intensify its attacks, but may also send a signal to other authoritarian regimes.
An Invisible War that is Already Underway
The West is not facing a choice of whether to go to war with Russia. However, many factors suggest, it is already in it.
The Kremlin has already been waging a multilevel hybrid campaign against Europe and the United States, using sabotage, disinformation, cyberattacks, political manipulation, and economic pressure.
Evidence suggests that Russia has stepped up sabotage attacks on Europe's critical infrastructure. In the Czech Republic, Russian agents attempted to disable the railway signaling systems, which could have affected the transportation of military aid to Ukraine.
In September 2024, Polish security services neutralized a sabotage group with ties to Russia and Belarus that planned to destabilize Poland. The group infiltrated government agencies and companies involved in military contracts to collect information and conduct cyberattacks.
In December 2024, a British court heard a case against a Russian spy group that planned to monitor Ukrainian soldiers at a US military base in Germany. The group intended to use devices to intercept mobile signals to track the movements of the Ukrainian military.
In February 2025, Spain arrested five people in Barcelona and Valencia on suspicion of illegally supplying Russia with chemicals that could be used to make weapons and explosives. This operation points to possible attempts by Russia to obtain materials for sabotage.
In 2024, French intelligence agencies investigated several incidents involving attempted arson attacks on energy facilities that could have been part of a Russian sabotage campaign. Sweden is investigating a series of railroad accidents that intelligence agencies are considering sabotage that could be linked to Russian agents.
One of the most high-profile cases was an attempted assassination on the director of the German defense concern Rheinmetall, a key supplier of military equipment to Ukraine. In January 2025, NATO confirmed that Russia had planned to assassinate the CEO of the German defense concern Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger. This attempt was part of a broader sabotage campaign to undermine Europe's defense capabilities.
In recent months, several incidents involving damage to submarine cables have been reported in the Baltic Sea, raising concerns about possible sabotage and threats to critical infrastructure. In particular, in November 2024, two submarine cables were damaged: one between Finland and Germany and the other between Sweden and Lithuania. These incidents have raised suspicions of possible sabotage, especially in the context of Russia's hybrid warfare.
In December 2024, Finnish commandos intercepted a Russian tanker suspected of damaging an undersea electric cable between Finland and Estonia. This incident highlighted the possibility of targeted actions by Russia against underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.
In January 2025, NATO launched Operation Baltic Sentry to enhance the protection of underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. This was a response to the increasing number of cases of damage to communication cables, pipelines and other facilities, which were allegedly carried out as part of Russia's hybrid operations.
It is worth noting that although some investigations have not found direct evidence of Russian sabotage, many experts and officials continue to express concern about possible sabotage efforts aimed at undermining critical infrastructure in the region. This underscores the need for enhanced security measures and international cooperation to protect undersea communications lines.
Recruitment through social media has become another powerful tool of the Kremlin. Russia is actively using Telegram and other platforms to attract radical groups and mercenaries who could carry out attacks in the EU. In addition, Russian intelligence services have begun to recruit migrants more actively to carry out terrorist attacks and other destructive actions.
The FSB and GRU are using the difficult economic situation of migrants, as well as propaganda, to force them to act in Moscow's favor. In Germany and France, there have already been cases of migrants associated with pro-Russian structures trying to organize riots.
Kremlin's Political Calculation
Moscow is not going to stop hybrid attacks, even after Donald Trump's election victory. The new US president has already made it clear that he wants to cut aid to Ukraine, which the Kremlin perceives as a signal for even greater escalation. Russia's strategy is to weaken NATO, undermine EU unity, and influence elections in democratic countries. The Kremlin hopes that chaos in Western democracies will allow it to gain strategic advantages without direct military confrontation.
Russian intelligence services are already taking advantage of the political situation in Europe. Pro-Russian parties in France, Germany, and Italy are receiving funding and support to undermine European governments. The Kremlin's information campaigns are aimed at discrediting support for Ukraine and at stimulating protest movements. In recent months, EU intelligence services have reported attempts by Russian agents to establish ties with far-right and far-left movements opposed to military assistance to Ukraine.
In addition, Russia continues to exert economic pressure, using energy resources as a weapon. Despite the sanctions, Moscow is looking for workarounds to export its energy by cooperating with third countries. This allows the Kremlin to finance sabotage operations and support proxy groups in Europe.
One of the most striking examples of information influence was Elon Musk's recent interference in German political processes. His X platform (formerly Twitter) was used to reinforce the narratives of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has close contacts with Russian propaganda resources. Musk openly disseminated messages discrediting the German government and supported content aimed at mobilizing AfD voters. This further increased internal political tensions in the country.
The recent elections in Romania also tested the West's response. The Kremlin, through its networks, tried to strengthen political forces that advocate weakening support for Ukraine and focusing on “traditional values.” However, instead of supporting Europe in the fight against Russian disinformation, the Trump administration criticized European governments for restricting freedom of speech. This was another signal of a change in the US policy of interfering in Europe's internal affairs. This position of Washington only contributes to the further spread of Russian propaganda in the region.
Trump's Role in Expanding the Threat
The Trump administration's actions could significantly weaken Western opposition to Russia.Already, his supporters are calling for cuts in funding for cybersecurity and disinformation programs. If the United States stops helping Ukraine and weakens NATO, it could provoke a new wave of attacks from the Kremlin.
Another danger is that Russia's actions could send a signal to other authoritarian regimes. China, Iran, and North Korea are watching closely to see if Russia can successfully undermine the West without serious consequences. If the West shows weakness, it will set a precedent for new aggressive actions in different parts of the world. The loss of confidence in the United States as a security guarantor could provoke an expansion of Russian operations in Africa and Latin America, where Moscow is already active through, for example, the Wagner PMC and other proxy forces.
5 Indicators why the War is Closer than it Seems
Escalation of sabotage on European infrastructure - increasing arson attacks, explosions at ammunition depots, attempts to blow up railroads, and attacks on energy networks - indicatessystematic preparations for a larger conflict.
Increased activity of Russian intelligence networks – the exposure of new spy cells in Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic and other countries – indicates a large-scale intelligence and sabotage campaign.
Intensified recruitment of migrants – Russian intelligence services are actively working to recruit illegal migrants to carry out terrorist attacks, sabotage and mass unrest in the EU.
Political shifts in the West – the rise to power of politicians willing to compromise with the Kremlin opens up opportunities for Russia to become more aggressive, especially if the West reduces its support for Ukraine.
Testing NATO's response – The Kremlin is testing the limits of the Alliance's patience through provocations, cyberattacks, and information operations, assessing how ready the West is for a serious escalation.
What Should the West Do?
The West must realize that the hybrid war is already underway, and ignoring it only makes the situation worse. Europe should:
strengthen coordination between the EU, NATO and national intelligence services. Working together to identify Russian agents and saboteurs should be a priority.
expand cybersecurity and countering disinformation. The Kremlin's information attacks should be adequately countered, including by exposing pro-Russian narratives on social media;
introduce tough countermeasures against Russian special services. Expulsion of agents, sanctions against those involved in hybrid aggression, and appropriate steps against Russian energy flows;
control migration flows. Identifying recruitment networks and preventing the use of migrants in subversive operations should be part of the EU's security strategy.
The West cannot afford illusions about Russia. The Kremlin is not negotiating in good faith and is not going to stop its attacks. Trump is already demonstrating a desire for a soft policy toward Moscow, which only encourages the Kremlin to continue its hybrid operations. Concessions to the Kremlin are not peace, but an invitation to new attacks.
Ihor Petrenko, Expert at Kyiv-based United Ukraine Think Tank