Trump Takes the White House: What to Expect

The primary takeaways from the 2024 U.S. presidential race highlight the resurgence and consolidation of the Republican Party. Until late October, expectations were uncertain; however, Trump’s notably vigorous and high-profile campaign reignited his lead at the last moment. Washington’s policies will undoubtedly become more transparent in their execution, though they may remain unpredictable for external observers and participants. Nevertheless, certain foundational principles are now apparent, ensuring some level of stability. These likely include a more assertive trade policy, a reduction in tax burdens, dialogues with European allies over greater contributions to global security, and efforts to challenge autocratic regimes worldwide. Such an approach is inherently unyielding. In general, it appears that we are witnessing a shift towards a “democratic nations also fight” stance. The leftist sentiments in major political figures are waning, and it seems we will not be left bored, that’s for sure.

Former President Donald Trump is much closer to victory than Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the results as of noon on 6 November (Eastern European time). Trump has managed to secure a lead in North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania—the largest swing states—effectively gaining his ticket to the White House. As analysts and leading experts predicted, swing states were pivotal, with their ever-changing political leanings. These seven states, totalling 93 electoral votes, include Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6). As we can see, the three largest have backed Trump.

Another major development is that along with the White House, Donald Trump gains significantly more influence over Capitol Hill than his predecessor. The Republican majority in both houses of Congress provides a powerful lever for advancing his vision in both foreign and domestic policy. Will Harris contest the election results? It is possible, though given the Republicans’ strong victory in both houses, this is unlikely to be effective or on a large scale.

Reports of Russian intelligence attempts to interfere in the election and influence democratic processes have already emerged. However, judging by the content of these reports, their goal was not achieved. So, the American people have made their choice, and now American politicians must live up to that trust.

Congress Crystallisation

The U.S. Congress consists of two chambers—the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Senate comprises 100 senators, two from each state, with the Vice President casting a tie-breaking vote if votes on a given issue are split 50-50. The House of Representatives has 435 members, elected proportionally by state population, with each state having at least one representative. A bill requires approval from both chambers to pass into law. Some responsibilities are divided, for example, the Senate ratifies treaties. In impeachment proceedings, although the House initiates, the Senate requires a two-thirds majority to convict.

Every two years, a third of the Senate (on six-year terms) and the entire House of Representatives (on two-year terms) face re-election. This year, 34 senators are up for re-election. After the 2022 election, Democrats held the Senate majority (51 seats) while Republicans held 49, creating a counterbalance to the Republican majority in the House. At that time, Republicans held 220 of the 435 House seats, while Democrats held 212, with three vacancies. This Congress will remain in place until 3 January 2025, after which the new, notably changed body—reflecting the 2024 election results—will take office. Early indications suggest Republicans will retain the House majority and secure the Senate majority.

Focus centred on Montana and Ohio, where Republicans made significant efforts to unseat incumbent Democratic senators. 

Republican Bernie Moreno has defeated Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Republican Tim Sheehy is on track to beat Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in Montana. Although results for seven Senate seats were still pending at the time of writing, the available figures indicate a Republican majority of at least 51 votes.

Though each senator or representative also represents their state’s interests, support for legislation often aligns with party positions in general. Over the past two years, the Senate’s Democratic majority sometimes clashed hard with the House’s Republican majority on specific legislation, such as the National Security Act last year. Republicans and Democrats negotiated the bill for several months before reaching a compromise that strengthened the U.S. southern border and providing aid to Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel.

Republican consolidation in Congress, coupled with Donald Trump’s growing influence over his party members, will undoubtedly shape the coming years. Trump’s internal opponents within the party will have to compromise with him or risk losing influence.

Photo: The world watched the U.S. election unfold with bated breath. Bangkok, Thailand, inside a restaurant with numerous television screens. Source: Getty Images

Increasing Influence

With a dual majority, Trump will be able to implement his policies far more swiftly and with fewer obstacles than Joe Biden. In just two months, Trump’s fellow Republicans will begin working with the new Congress, following the New Year’s and Christmas holidays, to advance his agenda.

He will likely adopt a robust approach to protecting U.S. economic interests, potentially imposing even stricter restrictions on Chinese imports and limiting China’s access to emerging technologies for two key purposes:

• The U.S. aims to regain its technological and scientific edge over its primary economic competitor, China.
• The U.S. seeks to restore its superiority over China in security and defence, not only due to tensions in the Taiwan Strait or the Korean Peninsula but also because of China’s role in bolstering authoritarian regimes worldwide. The time has come to address this.

A firm dialogue between Washington and Brussels on mutual trade may also resume. However, rather than drastic measures, this dialogue is likely to serve as leverage for agreements in related areas. For example, European countries may agree to buy more American defence products or collaborate on countering aggressive Chinese exports.

At present, the Trump stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine is uncertain in fact. And during the campaign, Republicans highlighted the failed Afghan withdrawal and the loss of control over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. We may soon see a robust plan addressing these challenges, as well as a tougher stance against Moscow’s ambitions in Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

The world and the global security system are under reconstruction—pardon the inconvenience, as the media might say over the next four years.

What about domestic issues: inflation, taxes, illegal immigration? Regarding this, priorities appear clear. Combating inflation and providing tax incentives to boost economic growth are top of the list, which bodes well for the global economy as well. The U.S. Democrats will likely support much of this agenda, as political life continues beyond any election, and a true democracy provides strong positions to the opposition, preparing them for future contests.