On the US Elections, Nothing is Decided Yet
Donald Trump has refused to engage in further debates with Kamala Harris. However, a debate between the vice-presidential candidates is scheduled for 1 October. Harris has outpaced Trump in fundraising by approximately one-third. Her lead in the polls, although relatively small, is gradually increasing. The intense battle continues between the presidential candidates and their running mates as they vie for the support of voters in swing states. While the media has quickly moved on from the second attempt on Trump’s life, they are actively investigating scandals surrounding his allies. Although polls suggest a slight advantage for Harris, this by no means excludes the possibility of a Trump victory, as the US president is elected through the Electoral College.
As the date of the final vote draws closer, both candidates’ campaign teams are increasingly issuing powerful statements about their inevitable victory, more scandals are emerging, and ever larger sums of money are being raised for election funds. Voters are also becoming more vocal, calling on the candidates to clarify their positions on sensitive issues.
Money Speaks Louder than Polls
Kamala Harris has definitively outpaced Donald Trump in fundraising. It seems unlikely that Trump will be able to close this gap in time. Immediately after Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, Trump’s campaign funds exceeded those of Vice President Kamala Harris by $25.1 million, with Trump holding $450.26 million compared to Harris’s $425.16 million (here and later according to figures from opensecrets.org).
When the National Democratic Committee officially nominated Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party candidate, the situation reversed. Harris had raised $497.52 million, while Trump had $472.77 million, giving her a $24.7 million advantage.
A week after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago (19-22 August), the gap widened significantly. Harris’s campaign fund had grown to $754.877 million, $180 million more than Trump’s $574.81 million at the end of August.
The fundraising continued to grow in September, albeit not as rapidly as in August. However, the gap between Harris and Trump’s funds kept expanding, reaching $772.459 million for Harris against $574.488 million for Trump—a difference of $197.971 million, or 34.5%, in favour of the Democratic candidate.
We understand that the amount of money in campaign funds does not guarantee full voter support, let alone victory in an Electoral College election. However, money does create opportunities—allowing campaigns to run more ads, order campaign materials, conduct personal outreach in states and districts, and hire top-tier speechwriters and lawyers, among other things. Imagine that Kamala Harris holds roughly a one-third advantage in this area.
Given that polls are also showing an increasing lead for Harris over Trump, the Republican candidate’s team certainly has work to do. According to data from the ABC project “538,” which aggregates the results of various polls, as of the penultimate weekend in September, Kamala Harris had 48.3% support compared to Donald Trump’s 45.6%.
Why is the Number 538 Important? This is the number of electors who choose the US president. The number of electors from each state is determined by the votes of the electorate. To win, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes.
The trend is quite remarkable. In late July, according to the same “538,” support for Trump and Harris was roughly equal—43.9% for Trump versus 44.2% for Harris. But after Harris was announced as the sole Democratic candidate at the beginning of August, these numbers started to diverge significantly. “538” recorded support for Trump at 43.4% versus Harris at 45.1%. By 29 August, Harris’s lead had widened further, with 47.7% support to Trump’s 44.3%. However, it was later that Trump and his team’s efforts to consolidate support—both from those who had already decided on their candidate and from undecided voters—began to show results.
The Battle for Swing States
The Electoral College, along with the relatively consistent party loyalties of most states, adds a unique element to the US presidential race. The fact is that some states are firmly "pro-Republican", while others are "pro-Democrat". However, there are seven states considered to be swing states. These are the so-called "battleground" states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It is their support that often tips the scales of the Electoral College. Collectively, these states hold 93 electoral votes.
Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, Georgia has 16, North Carolina 16, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10, and Nevada 6. The number of electors from each state depends on its population.
This configuration of state loyalties forms the basis of the campaign strategies implemented by the candidates and their teams. Indeed, they are actively engaging with states that have been painted in their party's colours for decades. It is crucial to get their supporters to the polls again. However, special efforts are being made to win over voters in the swing states, especially those with the largest number of electors' votes.
It is worth recalling that in the 2016 election, Trump was able to convince Pennsylvania (19 electors), Michigan (15), and Wisconsin (10) to choose him, despite these states previously being Democratic strongholds. In 2020, Joe Biden managed to shift the support of these states back to his party, which gave him 46 electors' votes from these three states. Additionally, Biden secured victories in Arizona for the first time since 1996 for a Democratic candidate and in Georgia for the first time since 1992. This allowed Biden to win the election with 302 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 236 in 2020.
As a result, candidates and their running mates are focusing on the swing states. For instance, Trump held meetings on 21 and 22 September in various cities in North Carolina. Vice-presidential candidates Tim Walz and J.D. Vance held rallies in Pennsylvania on 21 September, while Harris visited Atlanta and Wisconsin on 20 September.
Photo: US Vice President Kamala Harris in Madison, Wisconsin, on 20 September. In her speech, she referenced the death of a woman in the state of Georgia who lacked access to a legal abortion. Harris linked this incident to Donald Trump’s role in the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn abortion protections. Source: Getty Images.
Key Messages? Voters Demand Them
Illegal migration, rising prices, and the right to legal abortions are likely the key domestic issues for both candidates. Here, the battle has entered a more stationary phase. Trump accuses the Biden-Harris administration of causing high inflation in previous years, but Harris can point to achievements that look significantly better than what the polls suggest. Inflation has slowed, the trade deficit has reduced, the national debt growth has eased, wages and employment are rising, and oil and gas production is increasing. However, these improvements began relatively recently and have yet to be fully reflected in public opinion polls. This gives Trump a certain advantage, which Harris can only overcome through more active explanations. So far, the economic aspect of her campaign has lagged behind Trump’s in terms of public perception.
On foreign policy, topics on American voters' minds include the crisis in the Middle East and the full-scale war in Europe. Even tensions in the Taiwan Strait have somewhat faded due to the escalation in Lebanon and the brutal Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.
This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is on an official visit to the United States. It is known that he will meet with President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and members of the US Congress. Zelensky also mentioned plans to meet with Donald Trump. Zelensky has openly stated that he hopes to discuss Ukraine’s victory plan with all his interlocutors, including the possibility of obtaining permission to use long-range American weaponry, as well as European missiles containing American technology.
In Kyiv, such capabilities are reasonably considered key tools that could change the course of the war. On the eve of Zelensky visit to the US, the Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out three significant strikes on strategic arms depots—two north and west of Moscow, in the Tver region, and another in the Krasnodar Territory. The distance to these depots exceeds 450 km from the nearest possible launch points for the Ukrainian strike drones used in the attacks. Ukrainian forces also hit the Russian Shaikovka airfield in the Kaluga region, over 300 km away from their launch points. This airfield is home to Russian strategic Tu-22M bombers that are responsible for missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and power stations. There is no doubt that, in addition to military reasons, these strikes on remote Russian military targets were also intended to demonstrate the critical targets that the Ukrainian armed forces are capable of hitting.
The conflict in the Middle East is another sensitive topic for the candidates. On the one hand, the influential Jewish community of American voters has traditionally supported Democratic Party candidates to a slightly greater extent. On the other hand, Arab-American voters are also significant, particularly in swing states like Michigan. This is one of the states that could prove decisive in the election.