Ukraine's African Campaign

Ukraine is actively forming a vector of support from the countries of the Global South, in particular, by launching an active humanitarian policy in Africa and Asia. It was this active position of Ukraine that caused a nervous reaction in the Kremlin, which led to Russia's withdrawal from the so-called Istanbul Grain Agreement in the summer of 2023. In 2023, Ukraine demonstrated a good example of "polyphonic geopolitics" and informational work at multicultural levels. In terms of its foreign policy goals, Ukraine has yet to "win Africa."

This is extremely important, given the growing political influence of African countries. It is worth mentioning South Africa, which is a member of the BRICS group, or Nigeria, which the American intelligence community in its analytical report "Multiverses" refers to as the most dynamic countries of the future. In the voting structure of the UN General Assembly, Africa gives a significant number of votes. So far, these votes are sometimes neutral in relation to Ukraine, but the world needs these votes to be "in favor."

Ukraine's influence on African countries is currently being exercised through the Grain from Ukraine program, which has been joined by ambassadors who are experts on the African continent. In particular, the first Grain from Ukraine ambassador to the African continent was the former President of Malawi, Dr. Joyce Banda, who is currently active in a number of international organizations, including the UN Women Executive Committee.

The initiative was also joined by Dr. Christopher Fomunyo, Regional Program Director for Central and West Africa at the National Democratic Institute (USA), who has led international election observation missions and managed democracy support programs in many countries on the African continent.

The third ambassador of Grain from Ukraine is Dr. Obi Ezekwesili, former Minister of Education of Nigeria and former Vice President of the World Bank, who is currently a Senior Advisor at the Africa Economic Development Policy Initiative and Regional Director of the National Democratic Institute for Africa."

The Grain from Ukraine program was launched in November 2022. It is being implemented with the help of more than 30 donor countries that buy Ukrainian grain to transfer it to African countries suffering from food shortages. In particular, these are the EU countries, Qatar, Turkey, Japan, Norway, Korea, Canada, and the United States. The amount of funds has already reached USD 200 million. In total, the Grain from Ukraine program has provided grain to at least 5 million people. 

This is how a new Ukrainian proactive foreign policy is born out of a humanitarian mission. 

"Finding" Africa

Globally, 40-45% of Ukraine's agricultural exports go to Asia, 30-35% to the EU, up to 15% to Africa, and less than 10% to the CIS. Analyzing these figures, it is obvious that African countries are, with rare exceptions, terra incognita for Ukraine. 

The search for new markets for Ukrainian agricultural products, unlike more complex industrial goods, is governed by a simple principle: where there are many people, there are many people to eat, which means we go to them. Of course, with certain reservations: you don't go to China with your rice, and you don't go to Indonesia with your butter.

Let's leave the EU market out of the picture, as operations in this direction are formatted by the existing FTA agreement. Italy and Spain buy Ukrainian grain, while Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland buy sunflower oil. Meanwhile, processed products made from Ukrainian agricultural raw materials are sought after in Asia and Africa. 

The markets of North Africa are partially balanced for Ukraine: Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco. At the same time, the markets of Algeria and Libya are not sufficiently developed. The countries of the Arabian Peninsula can also be considered optimal: Saudi Arabia, the UAE.

And the real untapped export Klondike for Ukraine is African countries (south of Lake Chad, equatorial, South Africa). On the one hand, there is a significant population and demand for food there: Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, Angola, Congo, and others. 

On the other hand, there are meager volumes of agricultural products supplied by Ukraine, which can be explained by the specifics of the region. Entry into the domestic markets of these countries is possible only with political and financial support from the state, when cooperation in the agricultural sector is supported by other options (arms supplies, technology, cooperation in the extraction of natural resources, construction of industrial and infrastructure facilities). 

In other words, Ukraine needs a clear foreign policy doctrine on Africa with the country's inclusion in the continent's assistance programs. 

Private companies will not open this market, but if Ukraine manages to do so in the context of public-private partnerships, it will get a virtually unlimited and at the same time deeply diversified market both in terms of types of goods and consumers.

Thus, Ukraine's task for the near future is to "open up" Africa. The puzzle of its export diversification in the agricultural sector, in addition to the EU, should consist of 20 Asian and African countries with annual consumption of Ukrainian agricultural products of more than $1 billion each.

Take Examples from Successful Countries

The Netherlands sets a good example when it comes to developing agricultural potential. Cultivating 1.8 million hectares of land, which is comparable to one agricultural region of Ukraine, this country exports agricultural products worth 90 billion euros (including equipment, technology, innovation, service and machinery). 

The secret of the Netherlands' success lies in the creation of 10 megaclusters and the cross-sectoral development of the national economy and the use of hub advantages.

As for Ukraine, this means that the agricultural sector should be developed together with the chemical industry and machine building. Animal husbandry will be a source of organic fertilizers, among other things. Academic institutions can become centers of innovation, and educational institutions can train highly qualified specialists on a large scale. And at the core of the cluster is the state as a center for transferring investments, innovations, and funding.