US Intelligence Suggests Putin’s Ukraine War Goals Are Shifting Toward Short-Term Gains
New intelligence assessments from the United States and Western allies indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be recalibrating his strategy in Ukraine, prioritizing the consolidation of territories already under Russian control and reviving Russia’s economy.
The Gaze reports on this with reference to СNN.
This apparent shift marks a departure from earlier evaluations, which suggested that Putin believed he held the upper hand in the war and was preparing for a prolonged campaign with ambitions of taking full control of Ukraine.
The revised analysis comes as Donald Trump’s administration intensifies efforts to broker a peace agreement. Officials close to the negotiations believe Putin’s new approach could open the door to serious talks, though US intelligence remains cautious, suspecting the Kremlin may still be using negotiations as a stalling tactic.
“I think that he [Putin] may be thinking – I don’t want to say thinking smaller – but thinking about what a reasonable nearer-term objective is,” said a senior western intelligence official, suggesting that Russia’s economic struggles and pressure from Trump’s team threatening further sanctions while offering potential economic incentives may be influencing the Kremlin’s current posture.
“All of this really depends on what is the US willing to put on the table so that Putin could not just claim victory domestically,” the official continued, “but really feel that he has achieved something that is worth a significant pause and then maybe retake up the fight at some point later.”
Despite signs of potential compromise, skepticism remains high among US and European officials, who fear that any agreement could simply be a prelude to renewed aggression. “The long-term objective of absorbing parts of Ukraine that Putin views as historically Russian remains unchanged,” one senior European official warned.
While both sides inch toward potential agreement, major hurdles remain. Senior US officials remain doubtful of Russia’s sincerity, and ongoing Russian strikes in Ukraine suggest that Moscow may still be hedging its bets. “Putin is not looking to end the war overnight,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “There are numerous details and complexities to address before any resolution is reached.” So whether Putin’s current posture reflects a genuine pivot or a strategic pause remains to be seen.
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