Belgrade Seeks Balance

In Serbia, the largest country in the Western Balkans, early parliamentary elections and municipal elections are set to take place on December 17. The outcome will determine the situation in the entire region and influence the overall European political climate. The significance of this event becomes clear when examining the peculiar relationship between Belgrade and Moscow. When adding the Kosovo tension, it becomes entirely understandable why Brussels, Washington, and Moscow are all keenly focused on this date.

Formally triggered by two shootings in May 2023, claiming 17 lives in 48 hours, the announcement of early elections was a tragic pretext. A teenager in Belgrade with parental firearms and a young police officer in the province carried out mass shootings, triggering protests against the authorities.

The Serbian opposition adeptly utilized the tragedies for a political counteroffensive against President Aleksandar Vučić and the Progressive Party, which holds the parliamentary majority. The hot-blooded Balkan mentality transformed spilled blood into unpopular political decisions rather swiftly. To comprehend the speed of decision-making, it's worth recalling that Aleksandar Vučić and his supporters secured political dominance in Serbia in April 2022 with a victory in the first round of presidential elections and the formation of a parliamentary majority. However, later, the political landscape proved unfavorable to the winners.

What does this signal?

The scheduling of early elections in Serbia can be seen as a sign of the European political choice by the local establishment. It's a political response to the crisis. Meanwhile, by the standards of the "Russian world," a similar situation would follow an algorithm of disregard. What elections? We're sticking to our course!

Yet, Vučić continues to navigate between the Kremlin and its satellites on one side and the Western world on the other. He does not entirely close the door to dialogue with Russia but does not shy away from Euro-integration either. Attempting to navigate the crisis without leaning left or right is a typical manifestation of the turbulence in global politics. In Southern Europe, there are too many intersections of various influencing factors for Serbia to remain tranquil.

For instance, in April 2023, the President of Serbia hosted the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, and together, they examined the military capabilities of the Serbian forces. Later this year, Belgrade and Budapest reached an agreement to construct a new oil pipeline, presumably replacing the "Druzhba" pipeline that runs through Ukraine. Currently, Hungary receives gas from the "Turkish Stream" through Serbia, renouncing the transit of hydrocarbons through Ukrainian territory.

In August 2023, a practically sensational event occurred: Serbia participated in the summit of the "Crimean Platform," which is diametrically opposed to Moscow's positions. Simultaneously, Belgrade refused to support the declaration adopted during the summit. At that time, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dačić referred to unacceptable provisions in the final document.

In October of the same year, Vučić visited Moscow, emphasizing friendly relations with the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. As is well known, Serbia refuses to join the EU sanctions against Russia imposed after the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

However, just a few weeks ago, in November 2023, Vučić and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg met to discuss prospects for cooperation and resolving the crisis around Kosovo. Vučić did not rule out the resumption of regular exercises with NATO, although he emphasized Serbia's military-neutral status.

The Key to Calm or Unrest

The situation revolves around Serbia, often seen as a focal point for Russian influence in the Balkans and beyond. The Balkans, indeed, hold the key to the heart of Western Europe. As the largest fragment of the former Yugoslavia, Serbia has traditionally aligned itself with the Kremlin in its efforts to maintain control over the legacy of the erstwhile "Greater Yugoslavia." Thus, the Kremlin has focused on aiding politicians advancing a chauvinistic agenda. The theme of "Greater Serbia" unquestionably serves Moscow's interests, allowing it to keep Serbia's neighbours on edge.

However, Vučić himself is a far more flexible politician than many perceive. He does not forget the prospects of the country's Euro-integration. Sometimes, this seems like an element of sophisticated political bargaining in the style of classic realpolitik.

Vučić understands the need for balance and flexibility well. "We depend on the EU economy. We hope to increase consumption. And everything depends on the geopolitical situation, on things you cannot influence... We would grow faster if we didn't have external problems," he said on December 12 during the television show "Ćirilica," simultaneously complaining about external pressure without specifying its source.

Regardless, for Serbia to move towards Euro-integration, it must find common ground with Kosovo—not merely as a former autonomy but now, de facto, an independent state. Within its territory lies not only the famed site of Serbian glory, Kosovo Polje, but also several municipalities predominantly inhabited by ethnic Serbs. Serbian community representatives boycotted municipal elections in Kosovo in spring 2023. Municipal elections in Serbia in December 2023 may serve as a compensatory mechanism for those who lose in the parliamentary elections.

On Wednesday, December 13, the EU-Western Balkans Summit takes place, where participants were expected to issue final statements regarding the upcoming elections in Serbia. It seems that, more important than political outcomes, will be the integrity of the democratic process, as remnants of Serbian society remember the "bulldozer revolution" of 2000 and its consequences for Slobodan Milošević. Back then, due to distrust in the presidential elections, public unrest ensued, ultimately leading to the resignation of the country's president, Milošević, on October 6, 2000. The mention of the bulldozer is linked to one of the episodes of the unrest when protesters tried to storm the central television building using a bulldozer.

President Vučić remembers these consequences.