Ceasefire in Small Portions

Israel and Hamas reached a last-minute agreement on November 30 to extend the ceasefire for another day, until December 1. As of now, the majority of women and children who were abducted by Hamas terrorists on October 7 during a horrific terrorist attack have already been released. Israel released Palestinian militants held in its prisons to facilitate this. What's next? Yesterday's Hamas attack on civilians in Jerusalem is a likely response to this question. It seems Israel will continue hunting Hamas terrorists in the Gaza Strip and elsewhere. Meanwhile, Israel's strategic allies will attempt to steer it towards a softer stance. It's just unclear how to advance this softer position after more than a thousand Israelis were killed or tortured during the terror on October 7.

The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip was extended on Thursday, November 30, and immediately after, news came of the killing of at least three Israeli civilians in Jerusalem by Hamas terrorists. Several armed individuals opened fire on Israelis gathered at a bus stop where the highway from Tel Aviv enters Jerusalem. The number of casualties could have been much higher if not for the intervention of two military personnel and a civilian who were armed and fired at the terrorists. Two attackers were killed, interrupting the terrorist act. In the evening of the same day, one of the branches of Hamas claimed responsibility for this attack, but is still unclear, whether this action was somehow related to the extension of the ceasefire in Gaza.

Recall that a condition of the ceasefire, which started on November 22, was the release of approximately 240 Israeli hostages held by the terrorist organization Hamas, and accordingly, 210 Palestinian militants held in Israeli prisons were released. Overall, Israeli representatives say that about 20 women and more than 120 men, including several dozens soldiers, are still held in Gaza. Thus, approximately 140 Israelis remain in captivity. It is expected that women will be released in a few days if the exchange continues at the current pace. However, the ceasefire agreement is currently only in place for a day.

Step-by-Step Exchange

The ceasefire started on November 22 with the condition that it would be for four days and would continue each time for one day if another 10 Israelis held hostage by Hamas were released.

So far, the ceasefire has been extended twice. Now it's the third time. Israel is urged by all other sides to maintain the cessation of fire. In particular, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated during a meeting with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Tel Aviv on November 30 that the ceasefire is effective and should continue. "We have seen very positive developments over the past week, watched hostages returning home, reuniting with their families," Blinken said.

At the same time, Blinken again mentioned that the ceasefire helps increase humanitarian aid to civilians in the Gaza Strip. But today's shooting in Jerusalem rather supports Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stance, who, a day before the shooting, promised to resume operations against terrorist bases in the Gaza Strip after the ceasefire ends. "We will not stop in any way. This is my policy, the entire cabinet stands behind it, the entire government stands behind it, the soldiers stand behind it, the people stand behind it. This is exactly what we will do," Netanyahu said.

Against the backdrop of these challenging negotiations for the release of civilian hostages held by terrorists, the words of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres about the Gaza Strip being in the midst of an "epic humanitarian catastrophe" look rather strange. "Civilians, including UN personnel, must be protected. Civilian objects, including hospitals, must be protected. UN facilities must not be affected. International humanitarian law must always be respected," Guterres declared, but not a word in his tweets on night November 30 mentioned the more than a thousand victims on October 7.

The ratio is quite interesting: three tweets about suffering in the Gaza Strip, one tweet about the investigation of sexual crimes on October 7, and one tweet about the importance of releasing hostages held by Hamas. At the end, Guterres called for a "genuine humanitarian cessation of hostilities." A few hours after this call, terrorists in Jerusalem responded by killing at least three Israelis and injuring at least eight.

Photo: On the evening of November 30, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken(left) met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, the de facto capital of the Palestinian Authority, 10 km north of Jerusalem. Source: Antony Blinken's Twitter.

Next Steps

Negotiations between Israel and Hamas are ongoing, but their content is currently undisclosed by the Israeli side to avoid hindering the release of women held hostage. Their concerns are not unfounded, as Israeli forces have repeatedly found dead hostages in locations where Hamas held them. Unfortunately, releasing living hostages to the Israeli military has been only sporadic.

In the next stages, the negotiation process is likely to become more complicated as Israel insists on the release of all hostages, while Hamas does not yield on releasing Israeli military personnel captured on October 7. Hamas demands the release of Palestinian men or prominent prisoners held in Israeli prisons. Until now, the majority of released Palestinians have been teenagers detained for terrorist acts. Palestinian women who received court sentences for attacking Israelis have also been released.

These negotiations may hit a deadlock in the coming days once all Israeli women are freed. However, negotiations may turn towards an "all for all" format. This is partly because many in Israel are willing to pay this price for the release of all compatriots, even if it means freeing a significant number of active members of the terrorist movement.

After meeting with Israeli leaders, Antony Blinken met with Mahmoud Abbas on November 30. He tweeted: "I spoke with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah about the conflict in Gaza and measures to improve the safety and freedom of Palestinians on the West Bank. I confirmed the U.S. commitment to advance the creation of a Palestinian state." Israeli leaders may not have welcomed this statement in these terms. Important meetings are not only happening in Tel Aviv but also in Washington on Capitol Hill, where a crucial discussion about the scale of U.S. support for Israel in 2024 is underway. It seems that serious negotiations will take place over the weekend, but it is too early to expect real agreements.