Middle East Crisis Takes a Time-Out
In the night from November 21 to 22, precisely 47 days after the horrific tragedy on October 7, it became known that an agreement between the Israeli government and Hamas, mediated by the Qatari government, had been reached. This agreement involves the release of 50 Israeli citizens, mainly women and children, in groups of 12-13 individuals per day. In exchange, Israel, for the first time since the start of the conflict, agreed to a ceasefire for at least four days and the release of some detainees. The release of every additional 10 captives will result in an additional day of cessation of hostilities.
Signals from Washington and Brussels, Qatar's mediation – and thus, the outlines of a temporary, if not stable, ceasefire or at least a respite for several days, started to take shape. Initially, Hamas representative Izzat al-Rishk informed Al Jazeera on Monday, November 20, that the details of the ceasefire agreement with Israel would be announced in the coming hours. However, it took more than a day to formulate the terms of this temporary ceasefire and people exchange.
It's worth noting that Israel had already begun addressing humanitarian issues caused by the terrorists' attack on Israeli settlements. On November 20, over a day before the possible ceasefire conditions were announced, about 25,000 people left the northern part of Gaza through a "safe" corridor established by Israel. This information is based on the latest operational data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA).
And so, on the morning of November 22, the agreement was concluded.
PHOTO: Josep Borrell during a meeting in Brussels stated to 27 EU ministers the need to create a Palestinian state. Source: Josep Borrell's Twitter.
Starting Positions
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with the families of Israelis held captive in Gaza on Monday, November 20, as reported by the Times of Israel. Netanyahu stated that he discussed "diplomatic, intelligence, and operational efforts that we are conducting around the clock" with the families. It seems that some hints were dropped because approximately from this moment, information about the ceasefire format started coming from Israeli sources.
Also on November 20, the European Union's chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, during a meeting in Brussels with 27 EU ministers, stated that the creation of a Palestinian state is the "best guarantee for Israel's security." Borrell recently visited the Middle East, where he met with leaders of the Palestinian Authority, Israel, and Qatar, contributing to consultations between Israel, Gaza representatives, and Qatar as intermediary.
After that, late on November 20, Josep Borrell tweeted: "Consulted with EU Ministers on my high-level talks in Israel, Palestine, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan. Two main conclusions: 1) absolute urgency, especially due to the dramatic humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and the need to release hostages. 2) a common goal to work for lasting peace." However, he also announced, "We will continue the work in this direction as a priority. The next meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council in December will discuss the issues of stabilizing Gaza and activating the decision to create two states."
However, there's one caveat – the figures representing Gaza now. They are not welcomed at the negotiating table but are forced to communicate with them. During a visit to Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 20, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, at a press conference in response to journalists' questions about the situation around Gaza, expressed a clear stance: "…as we have repeatedly said, Hamas is not equivalent to the Palestinian people. Hamas is a terrorist organization, and the Palestinian people deserve better, much better. And again, I hope, ultimately, this will turn into something that provides proper governance for the people of Gaza and addresses the underlying causes of instability." At the same time, he expressed hope that the arms provided to Israel would be used properly, and the armed forces of this country would adhere to the norms of war regarding civilians.
Photo: The Israel Defense Forces released a photo of entrances to tunnels located under Shifa Hospital. According to the military, these tunnels were used by Hamas terrorists. Source: Israel Defense Forces' Twitter
Humanitarian Leverage
It seems that, under subtle yet powerful pressure from the EU, the Israeli government has finally taken some actions. At least, that's how it appears. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed his government on Tuesday, urging them to accept an agreement with the Palestinian militants Hamas for the release of some hostages in Gaza in exchange for a several-day ceasefire.
Before convening with his full government, Netanyahu met on Tuesday with his military cabinet and a broader national security cabinet regarding the deal. According to Israeli estimates, when Hamas militants infiltrated Israel on October 7, killing 1200 people, they took more than 200 hostages, including children.
Various reports on the agreement indicated that between 50 to 100 Israeli and foreign hostages would be released in exchange for a five-day break in fighting and the release of 150 to 300 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons. Last week, it was reported that Israel was demanding the immediate release of all children held in Gaza and their mothers.
A source in the Israeli government informed journalists on the evening of November 21 that the agreement involves the release of 50 living Israeli citizens, mostly women and children, in groups of 12-13 individuals per day. In return, Israel will release Palestinian women and minors from prison and return them to where they lived, mainly in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Israel will suspend hostilities for four days and allow more fuel into the Gaza Strip.
Does this imply that Israel will cease operations against terrorists in the Gaza Strip? Unlikely.
"This is a limited ceasefire for a few days, not a complete cessation of fire," acknowledged Hamas spokesperson Izzat Rishk in his comments to Al Jazeera. "Assistance will be provided to all areas of the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of kidnapped Israelis, women, and children, concurrently with the release of a limited number of Palestinian prisoners, women, and children, from Israeli prisons," outlined Rishk as a possible scenario for the agreement. It seems he understands what is truly at stake.
In the past two days, Israeli forces continued to pursue terrorists and seize weapons in the Gaza Strip, gradually advancing from the center of Gaza City to the south. They reported surrounding the city of Jabalia, located in the northern part of the Gaza Strip, and storming tunnels used by terrorists.
Israeli Prime Minister appeared resolute. "The retrieval of our kidnapped is a sacred and paramount task, and I am dedicated to it. We have not given up on the task of their return, and it is my responsibility and that of the military cabinet," Netanyahu wrote on Twitter. In conclusion, the Israeli Prime Minister noted, "We will not cease the fight until we bring our hostages home, destroy Hamas, and ensure that the threats from Gaza no longer exist." This doesn't seem like a long-lasting ceasefire; rather, it resembles a final warning that Hamas should exit the political stage.
In the end, the agreement was approved by a broad Israeli government committee of 38 individuals. Only three voted against it, members of the ultra-nationalist faction "Otzma Yehudit" of Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir. Representatives of the far-right party "Religious Zionism" supported the agreement, although initially, they stated they would vote against the deal with Hamas.
In summary, it is known that about 50 hostages will be released, although it was previously reported that around 240 individuals were kidnapped and taken to Gaza during the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7. For every additional 10 hostages released, Israel is willing to give an additional day of ceasefire. Hamas claimed to have 210 out of approximately 240 hostages, including about 40 children. During the negotiations for the agreement, Hamas stated that it refuses to release soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces.
According to Hamas, the agreement involves the release of approximately 150 Palestinian women and minors from prisons, allowing them to return to their homes, mainly in the West Bank of the Jordan River and East Jerusalem. Fuel and humanitarian shipments to Gaza will also be unblocked.
However, hostilities will soon continue. In particular, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced in a separate statement before the government committee meeting that Israel's ground offensive in Gaza is a key factor in "increasing pressure" on Hamas for negotiations, and after the ceasefire, Israel's operations in Gaza will resume "with full force."