Exit Polls in Poland Predict a Change of Power: Law and Justice Secures First Place but May Not Form a Coalition

In Poland, on Sunday, October 15th, the country held its parliamentary elections. Shortly after the polling stations closed at 9:00 PM local time, the results of exit polls were released. According to an exit poll conducted by Ipsos for the Polish national broadcaster TVP and major private channels, the ruling coalition "United Right," led by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), received the most votes, securing 36.8%. However, the democratic opposition has a chance to win 248 seats in the Sejm, allowing them to form a new government, as reported by TVN24.

According to Ipsos, the voter turnout in the elections was 72.9%. The exit poll results from this company are as follows:

• Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) - 36.8%
• Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) - 31.6%
• The Third Way (Trzecia Droga) - 13%
• Left (Lewica) - 8.6%
• Confederation (Konfederacja) - 6.2%
• Non-affiliated (Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy) - 2.4%
• Poland is One (Polska Jest Jedna) - 1.2%
• Other - 0.2%

The Ipsos pollster, conducting the exit poll, provided the following possible seat distribution in the Sejm:

• Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) - 200 seats
• Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) - 163 seats
• The Third Way (Trzecia Droga) - 55 seats
• Left (Lewica) - 30 seats
• Confederation (Konfederacja) - 12 seats

A simple majority in the Sejm requires 231 seats. Therefore, the ruling Law and Justice Party, even if it forms a coalition with the expected key partner, the Confederation, known for its anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, is unlikely to have enough votes to form a government.

Similar results were reported by the OGB company in its exit poll. According to Stargard.News, the Polish parliamentary elections produced the following results:

• Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) - 33.5%
• Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) - 31.4%
• The Third Way (Trzecia Droga) - 13.9%
• Left (Lewica) - 9.8%
• Confederation (Konfederacja) - 7.7%
• Non-affiliated (Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy) - 2.2%
• Poland is One (Polska Jest Jedna) - 1.3%
• Other - 0.2%

Meanwhile, Jarosław Kaczyński, who led the list of the ruling Law and Justice Party, stated at a press conference that his political force needs to be prepared to work in opposition. At the same time, Donald Tusk, the leader of the Civic Platform party, emphasized that Poland and democracy had won.

These elections were also marked by a high turnout, with over 500,000 Polish citizens expected to vote from abroad.