France Warns of Major War Threat with Russia in Heart of Europe
The French General Secretariat for Defence and National Security has published a new edition of the National Strategic Review. This document identifies Russia as the main threat to the security of France and the continent until 2030.
The Gaze reports on it, referring to Le Monde.
The previous version of the main doctrine of defence and diplomacy was published in 2022, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation.
"The Russian threat currently has no parallel for our interests and for the interests of our allies and partners. Since the beginning of its aggressive war in Ukraine, Russia has intensified its hostile actions: intimidation, cyberattacks, sabotage, espionage, and manipulation of information against France and its European partners," the document says. It identifies the possibility of a large-scale war on the continent as the main threat until 2030.
‘By 2030, the main threat to France and European countries is open war in the heart of Europe, which will involve the large-scale participation of our armed forces outside our national territory, along with a massive increase in hybrid attacks on our soil,’ it explains.
The document emphasises France's unique role as a nuclear power in the EU.
‘France, the only EU member state with nuclear weapons, must play a special role. It must be one of the key players in the implementation of the European defence pillar within NATO,’ it says.
France supports Ukraine's integration into the EU and directly links the country's security to support for Ukraine and the strengthening of Europe's eastern flank. The document calls for rearmament, strengthening the defence industry and ‘moral readiness’ for a possible war.
The document, which is about a hundred pages long, highlights problems with ‘transatlantic relations, i.e. relations with the United States, and the violation of “strategic stability”.’
In addition to ‘a less predictable foreign policy with potentially serious consequences for alliances (in particular NATO), the United States is announcing its differences in views and values with Europeans,’ analysts emphasise.
In this context, the National Review also pays special attention to Ukraine.
‘Relations with Ukraine must remain a central element of NATO's partnership strategy in fulfilling its mandate to defend the Euro-Atlantic area,’ the authors note, emphasising the importance of maintaining dialogue with Ukraine and ‘NATO's counteraction to the Russian threat.’ Thus, the strategy recalls the promises made to Ukraine by its allies regarding the ‘irreversibility of the path’ to future NATO membership.
In the event of large-scale NATO combat operations, the Atlantic Alliance's plans clearly state that France will become the main logistical rear base.
The strategy warns that France's overseas territories are also particularly vulnerable to modern crises. It also announces the start of legislative work to create ‘intermediate legal regimes between peacetime and wartime.’
In total, the document covers 11 strategic objectives for France. At the top of these objectives are nuclear deterrence, national resilience and the development of the military economy. The 2025 version adds an eleventh objective: ‘academic, scientific and technological excellence’.
In addition to a broad view of the risks, the document insists on the need to preserve the knowledge necessary for ‘French and European sovereignty,’ in particular the protection of fundamental technologies that contribute to nuclear safety, engines, materials, and related know-how.
It is also noted that, for the first time, the National Strategic Review should be subject to some form of implementation monitoring. Until now, its implementation has not been subject to any accountability.
As The Gaze reported earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged that French armed forces will be deployed to Poland in the event of a Russian attack.