General's Optimism Amidst Congressional Break
The U.S. Congress and Senate have headed for a Thanksgiving break after partially completing their homework by approving the Temporary Budget Resolution. Funding for crucial U.S. government expenditures is extended until mid-January at least, and for the most sensitive expenditure items, until the beginning of February. There seems to be sufficient time to work on the annual budget overall. However, it must include a security expenditure program for assisting Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, as well as funding for border control in the southern United States. This program requires bipartisan support, and discussions and compromises around it involve the most deficit commodity of our time: global security.
The visit of U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III to Kyiv on November 20 somewhat eased concerns about further U.S. assistance to Ukraine. The announcement of another tranche of arms aid, made on the morning of November 21 European time, confirmed Washington's intentions to support Kyiv in its resistance to Russian aggression. In the Ukrainian capital, Austin met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
As Lloyd Austin noted, they discussed Ukraine's counteroffensive operations and future needs of the Ukrainian forces. The tasks at hand are quite formidable, as indicated by Austin's words: "It's about the international order based on rules. It's about not living in a world where a dictator can wake up one day and decide to annex the property of his peaceful neighbor. This is not the world we want to live in." "So, it's more than just Ukraine; it's again about the international order based on rules," added Austin.
However, these words were spoken three days before Thanksgiving when the U.S. begins celebrating this important national day. Therefore, questions regarding direct financial assistance from the U.S. to Ukraine remain in a state of uncertainty, at least until Christmas. Similarly, questions about broader support for Israel and Taiwan, as well as funding for measures to stop illegal migration at the U.S.-Mexico border.
In total, the entire security program was estimated at $106 billion a month ago, only to support Ukraine and Israel. There are separate requests for funding measures to strengthen the border with Mexico, by the way, this issue was on the slogans of the Republicans' 2016 election campaign. There are also requests for assistance to Taiwan, although President Biden's recent conversation with President Xi in San Francisco last week seemed some hopeful. And there are separate requests for humanitarian projects in the Middle East. Because, although rocket workshops were hidden under many buildings in the Gaza Strip, the right to life under one's own roof for children and women from these buildings must be.
All this will be on the table starting Monday, November 27, and onwards for the next four weeks until Christmas and approximately two weeks after the New Year.
Strategic Visit
Certainly, money likes to be carefully counted. That's when there's more of it. Taxpayers want to understand how much the state is costing them. But even more, taxpayers seek security. The flare-up in the Middle East triggers flows of illegal migrants into the EU. Russia's invasion of Ukraine creates a real threat to NATO's eastern flank, especially for new members of the Alliance and the EU. The activity of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) around the shores of Taiwan poses not only a threat to democracy in East Asia but also to supply chains linked to automotive and other factories on both sides of the Atlantic.
Therefore, Defence Minister Lloyd J. Austin III visited Kyiv on November 20, and towards the end of his visit, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the provision of the 51st security assistance package to Ukraine from Pentagon stocks, amounting to $100 million.
Yes, this was already the 51st package of arms aid, counting from August 2021. This package was provided in accordance with the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) program. In particular, it includes anti-tank and anti-aircraft equipment, artillery shells of calibers 155 mm and 105 mm, ammunition for small arms, charges for demining and obstacle destruction, as well as auxiliary equipment and services.
"Security assistance to Ukraine is a smart investment in our national security. It helps prevent a larger conflict in the region and curb potential aggression elsewhere. It is extremely important for Congress to take steps to support Ukraine by approving the President's request for additional funding," the U.S. Department of Defense said in the announcement released on the morning of November 21 in Kyiv. Of course, in this case it was not about the budget for 2024.
It's not a big secret that using old Pentagon stocks opens the way to replacing outdated models with newer ones. And thanks to this, the Department of Defense was able to remind Republicans in Congress and the Senate of new jobs being created, as this happens "…strengthening our defense industrial base and creating highly skilled jobs for the American people in dozens of states across the country."
Austin's visit preceded the so-called "Ramstein," a meeting of partner countries coordinating further steps for military support to Ukraine. Another such meeting is planned for today, November 22. In other words, the U.S. Defense Secretary demonstratively visited Kyiv before the gathering, just like German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who arrived in Kyiv on November 21.
The Defense Ministers of the U.S. and Germany, along with Ukrainian participants, will be physically present in the discussion, while all others will join via video link. In this format, there's much symbolism and no less money, as Germany confidently moves into the group of leaders in supporting Ukraine both with arms and funds.
Photo: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center-right) meeting with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (center-left) during his visit to Kyiv. Zelensky thanked Germany for significant defense support for Ukraine and the decision to allocate another aid package of EUR1.3 billion. "Interlocutors discussed the urgent needs of Ukrainian defenders, including ensuring the protection of an alternative 'grain corridor' in the Black Sea," according to the meeting's summary. Source: president.gov.ua
And Yet, It's About Money
Almost until the last moment, before the budget races in Washington began, Ukraine was receiving financial assistance from the United States. In particular, on October 11, the Ukrainian government received a grant of $1.15 billion from the United States through the World Bank's Donor Trust Fund. For comparison, in the same month, Ukraine received a low-interest long-term loan of $1.59 million as part of macro-financial assistance from the EU. In essence, these two inflows constitute all direct external financing for Ukraine for the results of October.
So, it seems that the United States now perceives Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression as a component of maintaining global security. Defense Minister Lloyd J. Austin III spoke about this in Kyiv on the evening of November 20: "As before, I see bipartisan support in both houses of Congress. And I know there are some things we need to continue working on to get approval for additional requests. And we will continue to work with Congress on this. Our members of Congress have serious questions, and we will answer them. But I want to emphasize once again that Ukraine matters."
Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova, in her Facebook post, acknowledges that discussions in Congress about the budget for 2024 are extremely complicated, especially regarding assistance to Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression and for preserving global stability. At the same time, she notes that many in the U.S. are reminding lawmakers that "... 1) Ukraine's victory is a matter of not only Ukrainian but also American national security, 2) Ukraine urgently needs continued assistance, 3) assistance is needed both militarily and in direct budgetary, energy, humanitarian, etc."
So, nine days before Thanksgiving, the House of Representatives passed a new temporary budget resolution, avoiding a federal government shutdown. "For" voted 336 congressmen (127 Republicans and 209 Democrats), "against" - 95 congressmen (93 Republicans and 2 Democrats). To achieve this goal, according to the procedure, it was necessary to gather 289 votes from congressmen.
The approved temporary budget resolution envisages a two-step approach. Temporary funding based on last year's indicators for a range of federal agencies will end on January 19, 2024, and for others, including the State Department and the Pentagon, on February 2, 2024.
The adoption of this temporary resolution was successful because it did not include additional issues that are currently actively discussed in Congress. This includes international aid to Ukraine and Israel, as well as other security measures.
Next, on November 16, this resolution was approved by the Senate with 87 votes in favor and 11 against. After that, the document was sent to President Joe Biden for signing. The President signed the document in the evening of November 17. This happened literally two days before the deadline. That is, two days separated the situation from a shutdown – the cessation of the federal government's operations.
What's next?
Discussions in Congress are already complicated by taking place in an election year. Legislators have just one and half months to work on budget laws for 2024. January 19 is the next deadline for the Senate, where Democrats have the majority, and for the House of Representatives, controlled by Republicans. And this is a date that almost coincides with the start of the 2024 presidential campaign season.
However, the adoption of the temporary budget resolution demonstrated that Republicans and Democrats are working constructively even in the presence of disagreements. Although there are supporters of a tough line demanding hard cuts in state spending.
It is expected that after the Thanksgiving break, in two weeks, Congress will focus on the Biden administration's requests for funding for Ukraine and Israel. Republican senators would prefer Congress to pass immigration and border legislation along with additional aid to Ukraine. Still, a bipartisan Senate group working on a possible compromise has not yet found consensus. The key to the budgetary task seems to be only bipartisan support. And this is in an election year.