Georgia: On the Brink of Absorption by Russia
On 26 October, Georgia, a country of 3.7 million, held its parliamentary elections. Shortly afterward, a presidential election is scheduled, to be conducted by a newly formed electoral college composed of half of the freshly elected parliament members and half regional representatives. These Georgian elections are pivotal, both in terms of their format and potential implications. Located in the South Caucasus, just south of Russia, Georgia has suffered significant territorial losses due to Moscow's direct and indirect military interventions. In 2008, it faced open Russian aggression, halted only through diplomatic efforts by the United States and the European Union, though this did not prevent territorial losses for Georgia. Moscow’s successful campaign against Georgia in 2008 paved the way for its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its decision for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Currently, the situation following the elections appears highly precarious, as the opposition took to the streets on 28 October to demand the cancellation of election results they describe as “stolen.” Despite this, demonstrators dispersed peacefully. Opposition leaders have rejected any participation in a coalition government, which the pro-government “Georgian Dream” does not need, as it holds a strong majority of 89 seats out of 150, according to preliminary data from Georgia’s Central Election Commission.
As of 12:00 EET on 29 October, Georgia’s Central Election Commission reported preliminary data covering 99.968% of votes, showing the 150 parliamentary seats likely to be distributed as follows:
- Georgian Dream (pro-government) - 89 seats;
- Coalition for Change - 19 seats;
- Unity – National Movement - 16 seats;
- Strong Georgia - 14 seats;
- For Georgia - 12 seats.
These elections have strengthened the pro-Russian presence of Georgian Dream in parliament. If the current election results stand, the Georgian Dream party will be seen as dominating the country’s parliament, though such an impression might be misleading at present.
Photo: Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission: "The people of Georgia have been fighting for democracy." Source: X (formerly Twitter) Ursula von der Leyen
“…free and fair elections are at the core of European values”
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, on X (formerly Twitter)
The people of Georgia have been fighting for democracy. They have a right to know what happened this weekend, a right to see that irregularities are investigated swiftly, transparently, and independently, as free and fair elections are at the core of European values.
Path to an Autocratic Dream
In 2008, Georgian Dream did not yet exist, but five seats in the election were won by parties that would later join the coalition with it in 2012.
In April 2012, pro-Russian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili established Georgian Dream to capitalise on public discontent with Mikheil Saakashvili’s policies (United National Movement, or UNM) and the territorial losses following the 2008 war.
On 1 October 2012, Georgian Dream, as a six-party coalition, won 85 seats in parliament. The remaining 65 seats went to the UNM. President Saakashvili acknowledged defeat, facilitating Georgia’s first democratic transfer of power. This election marked the beginning of Georgia’s transition from a presidential to a parliamentary system. Georgian Dream initially presented itself as a relatively liberal, pragmatic, and ostensibly pro-European party, though Ivanishvili later shifted it towards a pro-Russian, Eurosceptic stance.
In the 2016 election, Georgian Dream enjoyed a “honeymoon” period, securing 107 seats in parliament and initiating a constitutional reform enacted in 2017, with successive stages planned for 2020 and 2024. In 2020, Georgian Dream secured 90 seats, but this was not a triumph. It was the last election using a mixed system, with 120 seats chosen through party lists and 30 through single-member constituencies. According to final data from the Central Election Commission, Georgian Dream received 48.24% of the vote, or 60 seats, from party lists, and won all single-member constituencies. In 13 constituencies, its candidates won in the first round, while in 17, they triumphed after a second round.
However, the 2020 election led to a significant political crisis. The opposition refused to recognise the election results, alleging fraud. Tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets, a substantial turnout for this relatively small country. Opposition parties declined to participate in parliament, though President Salome Zourabichvili, elected by direct vote in 2018 for a six-year term, continued to serve. This was the last direct presidential election, and Zourabichvili, representing the opposition, used her veto power to block pro-Russian and anti-democratic laws.
The 2024 election was fully based on proportional representation. With Georgian Dream securing nearly 60% of the vote, the ruling party has a firm grip on the situation. Another critical feature of the 26 October 2024 vote is that the president will now be chosen by an electoral college, marking Georgia's first indirect presidential election. The new president will serve a six-year term with even more limited powers. A 300-member electoral college, comprising 150 newly elected MPs and 150 regional representatives, will elect the president. Notably, in the 2021 local elections, Georgian Dream won most mayoral posts and seats in local councils. If Georgian Dream consolidates its parliamentary majority, the next president will be selected from the ruling party with even greater ease, preventing Salome Zourabichvili from serving a second term, although Georgian law allows for two presidential terms.
Photo: Bidzina Ivanishvili, the shadowy powerbroker of Georgian politics. Source: Getty Images
The Dark Figure Behind Georgian Politics
In the previous 2020 parliamentary election, the coalition “Strength in Unity,” led by Mikheil Saakashvili’s UNM, increased its representation by nine seats to 36. The remaining 24 seats went to smaller, independent parties, with the threshold at only 1%. Currently, most of these smaller parties have failed to pass the 5% threshold. Opposition forces now appear fragmented, with votes split among four parties, each holding between 12 and 19 seats, as per preliminary data from the Central Election Commission.
It seems that Bidzina Ivanishvili has hacked Georgia’s political system. Although he announced his departure from politics in January 2021, a response to the 2020–2021 political crisis, Ivanishvili continued to influence Georgian politics and officially returned in December 2023 as honorary head of Georgian Dream. Since then, he has been preparing his party for new elections, alarmed by the party’s declining popularity—down to 36.6% in late 2023 polls, compared to its 46.7% support in the 2021 local elections.
Those same 46.7% helped Georgian Dream survive the political crisis following the 2020 parliamentary election. A deal between the opposition and the ruling party stipulated that Georgian Dream would call snap parliamentary elections if it garnered less than 43% in the 2021 local elections. Georgian Dream surpassed this threshold, maintaining its single-party leadership. The shadow of Ivanishvili looms heavily over these political manoeuvres.
Ivanishvili’s influence and resources are apparent; he is a billionaire who amassed his wealth primarily in Russia. Although he initially championed pro-European views alongside populist promises, recent years have seen a starkly pro-Russian stance, especially after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ivanishvili owns Aqua-Space Ltd in Russia, and Transparency International Georgia reports that his relatives front for his businesses in Russia, including valuable properties in the Moscow region. His pro-Russian positions led the European Parliament, on 9 June 2022, to pass a resolution condemning him for his “personal and business ties with the Kremlin.” The EU recommended sanctions against Ivanishvili, citing his role in undermining Georgia’s political process and suppressing press freedom.
Transparency International has strongly criticised Ivanishvili’s influence on Georgian institutions, describing it as state capture, while Freedom House stated, “Oligarchic influence determines political decisions, the media environment, and the rule of law, undermined by politicisation.” Ivanishvili’s informal status as Georgia’s ruler is complicated by his significant business interests in Russia, which remains an adversarial state, occupying substantial Georgian territory. His activities threaten Georgia’s security and foreign policy independence, aiming for informal, and eventually formal, absorption of Georgia into Russia’s sphere—a Belarusian-style puppet regime installed in Tbilisi.
Photo: Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili has only a few weeks left to defend democracy. If the pro-government "Georgian Dream" pushes through election results, Ms. Zourabichvili may lose this opportunity. Source: X (formerly Twitter) Salome Zourabichvili
“The results they wrote will not stand…”
Salome Zourabichvili, current president of Georgia, on X (formerly Twitter)
A full picture must emerge of this planned theft, robbing us of votes, parliament, and the constitution! We are united—no one will accept these unjust results. Peacefully, we will defend your right to be heard. The voice of the people matters, and we will uphold it! This is no time for pessimism or surrender. We must stay calm and determined, defending every vote in Georgia’s elections. The results they wrote will not stand—we will achieve the truth together! Thank you all for what we’ve achieved so far.
Deep Concern Among European Politicians
European politicians are most concerned about the hybrid strategy used against Georgia, where the population is frightened by propaganda suggesting that a pro-European course will provoke Russian aggression—another, even stronger, invasion than in 2008.
Back in 2008, two factors helped Georgia retain its sovereignty: diplomatic steps from the United States and EU countries, along with weapons supplies, including air defence systems from Ukraine. But since 2022, Georgia has transformed into a hub circumventing sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, with dual-use goods and financial transactions among the many ways it aids Russia’s military machine, to the benefit of local businesses.
The Russian hybrid influence on Georgia's election process has, at the very least, involved two key components: propaganda and economic manipulation. This made it relatively straightforward for the "Georgian Dream" party to feign transparency in the elections. However, such tactics are now fooling fewer people.
While the joint observer mission led by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) described the elections as "well-organised and orderly," they were compelled to report widespread instances of voter intimidation, coercion, and vote-buying, all of which "compromised" the secrecy of the ballot.
In response, the European Union has called upon the Georgian authorities to investigate reports of election violations "promptly, transparently, and independently." A joint statement from the European Commission and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, underscored that “these violations need to be identified and addressed. This is a necessary step to restore confidence in the electoral process."
European Council President Charles Michel has also urged the Georgian government to take these violations "seriously," noting that EU leaders "will determine the next steps in our relationship with Georgia" when they convene in early November in Budapest.
However, this meeting of EU representatives will be hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a pro-Russian politician who has already congratulated "Georgian Dream" on its decisive victory. One can only imagine Kremlin officials applauding his words somewhere in Moscow.