How Are Ukraine’s Strikes on Russian Oil Logistics Undermining the Kremlin’s Sanction Evasion?
Ukraine’s ongoing campaign targeting Russian oil infrastructure is creating significant disruptions in the Kremlin’s ability to bypass international sanctions, with wide-ranging economic and strategic implications for the West.
In his article, Volodymyr Kuznetsov highlights how the destruction of key elements of Russia’s oil logistics — including refineries, pipelines, terminals, and the so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers — is breaking the chain that sustains Moscow’s energy exports. This not only increases logistics costs and causes fuel shortages within Russia but also exposes the limits of the Kremlin’s sanction evasion schemes, including fake flags and alternative export routes.
Kuznetsov notes that for the West, this represents a double advantage. By crippling Russia’s technical ability to reroute oil flows, Ukraine strengthens the effectiveness of existing sanctions while freeing up resources to monitor the rogue fleet and enforce international inspections.
Moreover, the strikes accelerate the replacement of Russian energy carriers in global markets. Reduced Russian refining capacity increases demand for alternative suppliers, benefiting the United States through higher LNG and petroleum exports and helping the EU diversify its energy sources.
“We are already seeing that imports of American LNG to Europe have surged, and the EU is accelerating plans to reduce Russian supplies to their complete cessation on the horizon of 2026–2028,” Kuznetsov wrote.
The author emphasizes that this shift not only strengthens transatlantic energy ties but also weakens Moscow’s political argument that Europe cannot survive without Russian energy.
“Continuing the strike campaign on refineries accelerates the process of market replacement and makes the EU’s energy transformation more realistic,” he added.
Read the full article on The Gaze: Why Ukraine Should be Allowed to Attack Russian Oil Refineries – Benefits for the US and EU