Indian Shuttle Diplomacy
India is striving for a new level of influence. Whether intentionally or not, the G7 countries are assisting New Delhi, which still maintains an image of a relatively neutral player on the global stage. Recent negotiations and visits by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are gradually increasing the country’s influence. However, the lack of expected outcomes hampers this progress. In Moscow, Modi's peacemaking efforts appear to be ignored, despite Russia's dependence on oil exports to India and the use of Indian channels for importing sensitive goods and technologies.
A phone call between US President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Modi took place on 26 August, and the following day, Modi spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This followed Modi’s visit to Poland and Ukraine on 22-23 August. If this isn’t shuttle diplomacy, then what is it?
The visit to Poland was rather formal, but there were intriguing developments regarding future cooperation between India and the Polish defence industry. Warsaw has always preferred to have its own sources of armaments and diversify suppliers of modern technologies. Polish companies have been adept at modernising former Soviet tanks and producing their own artillery systems with the help of South Korean partners, and they have also collaborated with American and European defence corporations. Until recently, India had been heavily purchasing weapons and technology from Russia, although in the last few years, it has sought to significantly reduce its dependency on Moscow.
What is prompting India to change its sources of military equipment and armaments? Firstly, it is the desire to avoid over-dependence on Russia, which is under sanctions from developed countries. Secondly, the results of using Russian weaponry during the full-scale war in Ukraine have not been inspiring for potential buyers, including India. Therefore, a partnership with the Polish defence industry is a perfectly logical decision for India.
The visit of India’s highest-ranking official to Ukraine was also the first in several decades, similar to the visit to Poland. However, the overall tone was quite different. There was significantly less specificity and more talk of future intentions. Regarding the pathways to ending the war in Ukraine, Narendra Modi was remarkably cautious: "We have firmly stayed away from the war, but this has never meant we were mere indifferent observers. We have never been neutral, and we had a side from the very first day - our side was peace... Therefore, coming to the land of Ukraine, I have come with a message of peace."
He also spoke about the value of territorial integrity and sovereignty, but he did not propose anything specific concerning the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity. According to some leaks, Kyiv received certain proposals from Moscow through the mediation of the Indian official. However, these proposals remain unacceptable to the Ukrainian side.
Two days after returning from Kyiv, Narendra Modi had a phone conversation with US President Joe Biden. Following the conversation, the White House released a brief communiqué, summarised by the phrase, “The leaders reaffirmed their unwavering support for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in accordance with international law based on the UN Charter.” It also mentioned the desire to promote peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region, including through cooperation within the Quad group, which facilitates a four-way dialogue between India, Japan, the US, and Australia.
Narendra Modi also reported on his conversation with the US President using quite cautious language in his post on X (formerly Twitter): "We had a detailed exchange of views on various regional and global issues, including the situation in Ukraine. I reiterated India's full support for the swift restoration of peace and stability. We also discussed the situation in Bangladesh and emphasised the need for a rapid return to normalcy and the protection of minorities, particularly Hindus, in Bangladesh."
The following day, Narendra Modi had a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin. "We discussed measures to further strengthen the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. I exchanged views on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and shared my thoughts from the recent visit to Ukraine. I reaffirmed India's strong commitment to supporting a swift, sustainable, and peaceful resolution of the conflict," Modi wrote in his post on X (formerly Twitter). These statements appear to be filled with internal contradictions, as it is difficult to understand how one can reconcile a "swift, sustainable, and peaceful resolution of the conflict" with the strengthening of a "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership" with the state that initiated this so-called "conflict," which is, in reality, a war.
Friendly communications between Washington and New Delhi are fuelled by the United States' hopes for a more balanced, realistic, and pragmatic policy from India, now the most populous country with a rapidly growing economy. India, for its part, is trying to build its own ecosystem – with access to both cheap sources of raw materials from Russia and modern technologies from G7 countries.
India indeed has a chance to take an equidistant position – away from both the "axis of evil," which includes Russia, and the G7 group, which consists of the world's major developed democracies. In pursuit of this equidistance, Indian companies are actively buying Russian oil and other raw materials and supplying Russia with components used in the production of weapons. At the same time, New Delhi is very actively offering its services to the United States as a mediator in discussions with Putin.
From time to time, developed countries send unequivocal signals to India that maintaining friendly relations with a country waging an aggressive war in Europe is not advisable. On 23 August, the US Department of the Treasury and the Department of Commerce imposed harsh sanctions on individuals and companies from Russia, China, Turkey, Belarus, Italy, Turkey, Austria, Liechtenstein, and Switzerland. For some reason, there were no companies or individuals from India on this list, but they were included in the previous round of American sanctions implemented in July. Notably, in both August and July, the sanctions were not imposed for circumventing price caps on importing Russian oil—a common practice among Indian companies—but rather for aiding Russians in importing sensitive goods and technologies used in the Russian military-industrial complex.
However, India is not overly concerned – it is building its own military-industrial complex and aspires to the status of at least a regional superpower.