Israel Grows Tired of Negotiations

It seems Israel has abandoned hope of negotiating a ceasefire with those who have been relentlessly bombing the country since 7 October 2023. On Sunday, 29 September, Israeli aircraft bombed the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, triggering massive explosions resembling the detonation of ammunition depots. Just a day earlier, Yemeni Houthi rebels had launched missiles at Israel. Two days prior, Israel attacked a location in Lebanon where the leader of the Hezbollah terrorist organisation, Hassan Nasrallah, was hiding, successfully eliminating him. This appears to mark a sharp escalation after 12 months of Israel’s fruitless attempts to secure peace and the release of hostages through negotiations. It feels like a decisive move at the end of a prolonged struggle.

On Sunday, 29 September, global media began to circulate images and videos of the aftermath of Israeli airstrikes on the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. This port is known to be a logistical hub, enabling the Houthis to receive Iranian arms for attacks on Israel. Israel has already confirmed that its aircraft were responsible for the strikes.

This was no simple operation for the Israeli Air Force, as the direct distance between Hodeidah and southern Israel is nearly 1,900 kilometres, stretching across Saudi Arabia and Jordan—countries that can hardly be described as staunch supporters of Israel. However, when it comes to the Houthis, Saudi Arabia is a situational ally of Israel, as they have also been targeted by Houthi attacks.

It’s a masterstroke by Hamas and Hezbollah to have found allies who are enemies of Arab nations closest to Israel.

Photo: On 28 September, Israeli police released images of debris from a Houthi missile intercepted near Jerusalem, causing minor damage. The Israel Defence Forces had earlier reported that the missile launched from Yemen was destroyed by Israel’s Arrow long-range missile defence system. Source: Israeli Police

Iran Gathers Foes

The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, who are essentially Iran’s proxies, has been ongoing since at least May 2015, when the Saudi border town of Najran was bombarded.

Subsequently, the Houthis began using missiles and drones to strike Saudi Arabia, causing numerous casualties among both military personnel and civilians. Their attacks escalated, with Houthi forces targeting Saudi infrastructure, including military bases and oil refineries deep within Saudi territory. In the summer of 2017, Houthi rockets struck King Fahd Air Base in Taif, Mecca Province, 700 kilometres from the Yemeni border.

The most infamous attack occurred in November 2017, when the Houthis launched a ballistic missile at the Saudi capital, Riyadh, a strike over 900 kilometres away. The Houthis used an Iranian ballistic missile, itself a copy of the Soviet SCUD system. Notably, the SCUD technology belongs to Russia, with development carried out by enterprises now located in the Russian Federation.

Thus, it’s highly likely that Israeli fighter jets were granted an aerial corridor over the narrow Gulf of Aqaba in the northern Red Sea, before proceeding along the Red Sea. The Gulf of Aqaba, with a width of up to 29 kilometres, would have required Riyadh’s tacit consent for Israeli planes to fly over.

Photo: Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi has vowed to continue the war. Source: dhamarnews.com

The Second Long-Distance Strike

The 29 September strike on the Hodeidah port was the second of its kind. The first took place on 20 July 2024, in response to a Houthi attack on Tel Aviv on 19 July. On that occasion, Israeli F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighters, supported by reconnaissance and refuelling aircraft, carried out the strikes.

This time, Israel responded to missile attacks by the Houthis on 27 and 28 September. A simple calculation reveals that for both the July and September strikes, the Israeli Air Force took no more than a day to prepare retaliatory operations. This swift response is only possible with continuous surveillance of enemy targets and air defence systems, allowing for effective strikes at any moment.

In addition to Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, other Iranian proxies have also attacked Israel. For instance, the Iraqi-based group Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) claimed responsibility for drone strikes on Israel and the Golan Heights on 28 September, which are under Israeli military control.

This all points to a coordinated network of Iranian proxies, likely managed from a single centre, probably through Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The 28 September Houthi missile attack was accompanied by a statement from their leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, declaring that the target was an airport where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plane was due to land after his visit to New York. In his address, Abdul Malik al-Houthi also threatened further attacks. The Israeli military took these threats seriously, responding with an airstrike on Hodeidah.

However, Israel’s missile defence system, Arrow, successfully intercepted the Houthi missile outside the atmosphere.

Al-Houthi also confirmed that the attack on Israel was retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was eliminated in an airstrike on a location in Beirut on 27 September. Al-Houthi vowed that "the resistance will not be broken" and that Nasrallah’s death "will not be in vain."

Simultaneously with the Hodeidah strike, Israeli aircraft continued targeting Hezbollah positions deep within Lebanon, even in the suburbs of the capital. Hezbollah confirmed that along with Hassan Nasrallah, another senior figure, Ali Karki, was killed in the 27 September strike, indicating the attack on Hezbollah leadership was devastating.

It seems Israel’s main ally, the United States, has moved from expressing concern about the Middle East escalation to endorsing the Israeli military’s actions, given their apparent effectiveness.

"I don’t think anyone is mourning the loss of Mr Nasrallah, a known terrorist, a man with American blood on his hands, as well as Israeli blood. It’s a terrorist organisation. He was its leader. And I believe people are safer with him gone," said U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday. However, Kirby also stressed the need for de-escalation: "I think we would all agree that efforts need to be made for de-escalation."

But this de-escalation is unlikely until Iran’s proxies face a shortage of missiles, drones, and funds.