No Ceasefire Expected as Putin Dreams of Autumn Offensive, Analyst Explains

A ceasefire in Russia's war against Ukraine is unlikely to be achieved in the near future, as Russia is not interested in it. Putin is dreaming of a summer military campaign, an autumn offensive. This opinion was voiced by political scientist and co-founder of the National Platform for Resilience and Cohesion Oleh Sahakyan.

The Gaze reports on this with reference to the broadcast of the FREEDOM TV channel.

‘I am sceptical that a stable ceasefire will be achieved. Russia is not interested in this. Their entire ceasefire strategy was aimed at preventing Trump from getting off the hook for asymmetric pressure on Ukraine,’ the political analyst said.

Sahakyan believes that after 100 days in office, US President Donald Trump has no real results. He continues his rhetoric that his predecessors are to blame for everything. 

‘The recent actions of both Europe and Ukraine, as well as Russia's inaction against the backdrop of electoral changes in the United States and the deteriorating geopolitical situation in general, that Trump has no real victories for a hundred days, and everything comes down to rhetoric that his predecessors are to blame for everything, is the best demonstration that he has nothing to show for real results today,’ Sahakyan said.

All of this, the political scientist believes, creates additional pressure on Trump from various sides, which does not allow him to strengthen his pro-Russian actions and position. Conversely, it calibrates a corridor for him in which Trump can only act tough on Russia, or generally retreat from any action and wait. 

‘Therefore, at the moment, Russia has no window to impose its scenario effectively, and they are failing. And Russia is not going to implement the European and Ukrainian ceasefire scenarios. Putin is dreaming of a summer campaign, an autumn offensive. And, accordingly, if he were really ready for a ceasefire and to enter the diplomatic process, there would be no return of the old new conditions from Lavrov, there would be concessions for Trump before his 100 days in office,’ the speaker said. 

In fact, the US-Russia negotiation track, if not broken down, is stalling very seriously, the political scientist believes. 

‘And these 8-10 days in Macron's statement, Rubio's words about what is left to two weeks, a week or so, Trump's rhetoric, which has changed, indicate that there is indeed a certain agreed European proposal that has been adopted by the United States to increase pressure on Russia,’ Sahakyan said.

This is likely to be led by Europe, where Trump will support the initiatives tacitly, but will not take responsibility for increasing pressure on Russia, the expert suggests. 

‘He will say that everyone is to blame, no one gives good suggestions, my brilliant proposals were rejected, and in general, everyone is responsible, and let Europe take more leadership in these processes. Apparently, the visit of Witkoff and Rubio to Paris was dedicated to this, in particular Rubio's visit,’ Sahakyan said. 

Steve Witkoff, in his opinion, went to Paris with a slightly different agenda, expecting France to be more accommodating in terms of compromises with Moscow. 

‘The United States was very much annoyed that Europe was not ready to lift sanctions against Russia, as well as the fact that they were not ready to abandon their military support for Ukraine, but rather were increasing it, and even talking about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine as part of operations not only in the air and sea, but also on the ground,’ Sahakyan said.

It is the possibility of ground operations by the European contingent in Ukraine that has become a field of compromise, the political analyst believes.

‘We have seen the leakage of information in Britain that they may refuse the ground mission. France was silent, did not comment on this. This may be a hint that this card was played to the Trump administration as a possible field for groping for compromises with Russia. That Europe, the ‘coalition of the willing’, is ready to reconsider, perhaps, its plans to send troops to Ukraine as part of a diplomatic, negotiating position to keep it in Trump's crosshairs, ready to ease its pressure a little bit, but not to give it up, and in return, the United States should set a certain deadline after which it is ready to increase pressure on Russia, rather than keep the suspense constant and exclusively put pressure on Ukraine, on the victim country, not the aggressor country,’ the guest said.

Therefore, Putin's announcement of a unilateral ceasefire for three days to allow for the parade was met with harsh reactions from Europeans and even the United States. 

‘Initially, the US showed a rather cold reaction at the level of the Foreign Ministry and a tougher one through Kellogg, which could not have been uncoordinated within the White House apparatus, as he is President Trump's special representative on these issues,’ the speaker added. 

Sahakyan reminded that Ukraine had decided not to answer either ‘yes’ or ‘no’.

‘I think it is very right to continue to marinate Putin on this issue. After all, the arrival of a number of leaders at the 9 May parade in Moscow largely depends on whether there is a cessation of the strikes. After all, if there is no guarantee of security, some of them may simply cancel their visits because they cannot be provided with basic security. And Ukraine is not likely to confirm in its bilateral contacts with these countries that it is committed to non-attack guarantees. On the contrary, Ukraine may keep a pause,’ Oleh Sahakyan stressed.

Putin needs Ukraine to confirm this ceasefire, which Russia is imposing now only at a time favourable to itself, just to send a signal to Xi Jinping or others that it is safe to fly to Moscow for the May 9 parade, the political analyst believes.

‘You don't have to hit Red Square. It is possible to attack the Moscow region, military facilities in the Moscow Military District, which will lead to the closure of airports for receiving and releasing planes. Accordingly, in such circumstances, none of the leaders will be able to fly to Moscow,’ the speaker added.

Earlier, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said that the Russian Federation should stop talking about its readiness for peace and start acting, unconditionally agreeing to a real and lasting ceasefire.

As The Gaze reported earlier, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the Republic of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (2010-2017) Oleksandr Levchenko explained why Putin’s ‘ceasefire’ initiative has nothing to do with peace proposal.