Romania Faces the Prospect of Remaining with NATO and the EU
Romania is entering a period of significant turbulence. The second round of the presidential elections is set to take place next Sunday, 8 December, following the parliamentary elections on 1 December. Unexpectedly, a pro-Moscow and little-known politician, Călin Georgescu, who does not even have a supporting political party, advanced to the second round. His competitor is the leader of the pro-European centrists, Elena Lasconi, representing the Save Romania Union (USR). Notably, the leaders of the two mainstream parties—the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL)—did not advance to the second round. The Constitutional Court refrained from annulling the first-round results, thus leaving Georgescu and Lasconi to face each other. This occurs against the backdrop of pro-European forces securing a parliamentary majority, though their coalition currently appears far from stable.
In the first round of elections, the far-right, pro-Russian populist Călin Georgescu (62) secured 22.94% of the vote, outpacing the pro-European liberal and centre-right candidate Elena Lasconi (52), who garnered 19.18% of the vote. Georgescu also surpassed representatives of the mainstream parties. Marcel Ciolacu, a centre-left populist and the current Prime Minister, narrowly missed advancing to the second round with 19.15% of the vote. Nicolae Ciucă of the Liberal Party (PNL) lagged significantly, obtaining only 8.79%.
These results sounded alarm bells ahead of the parliamentary elections. For instance, PSD recorded its worst-ever performance in a presidential election’s first round, failing for the first time to secure a second-round spot for its candidate.
Nicolae Ciucă suffered a crushing defeat, a predictable outcome of the political crisis three years ago. On 5 October 2021, the government formed around PNL was dissolved following a no-confidence vote titled "Stop Poverty, Price Increases, and Criminals! Down with the Cîțu Government!" It is worth noting that this no-confidence motion was initiated by PSD.
Following their dismal presidential election results, both Nicolae Ciucă and Marcel Ciolacu resigned as party leaders. However, Ciolacu remains Prime Minister until a new one is appointed based on the results of the parliamentary and presidential elections. The President's role is pivotal, as they appoint the Prime Minister, though the political spectrum of the parliamentary majority must also be considered.
1 December: A Day of Strain
As of the morning of 4 December, only preliminary results from the 1 December parliamentary elections were available, covering 100% of the submitted votes. According to the data, PSD received 22.3%, ahead of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), which secured 18.3%. The National Liberal Party (PNL) achieved 14.28%, while Elena Lasconi’s opposition centrist party, USR, garnered 12.26%. Far-right groups SOS and the Party of Young People (POT) received 7.76% and 6.39%, respectively. The ethnic Hungarian organisation UDMR obtained 6.38%. Although not a political party, UDMR is entitled to participate in elections as it represents a national minority. Other political forces failed to reach the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.
As previously mentioned, the final decision on the Prime Minister's appointment lies with the winner of the second round of the presidential election, as the President nominates the Prime Minister while taking into account the parliamentary majority. The Senate consists of 136 members, while the Chamber of Deputies has 331, requiring majorities of 69 and 166, respectively.
Photo: Preliminary (unofficial) results of elections for both chambers of Romania’s parliament—the Senate (left) and the Chamber of Deputies (right). Source: euronews.ro
Rivals Unite Against Danger
Negotiations have already begun in earnest. On the evening of 3 December, Marcel Ciolacu announced on his Facebook page that he had met with Elena Lasconi to discuss forming a pro-European parliamentary majority:
“Today, I had a meeting with Ms Elena Lasconi, the USR candidate in the second round of the presidential election. We discussed the pro-European parliamentary majority and the decisions needed to achieve a government that supports the same values. I will also meet with leaders of other political groups that have already declared their intent to join a government formula that continues Romania’s development with European funds. It is crucial to maintain Romania’s current course: alongside the European Union, NATO, and within the Schengen Area.”
If Ciolacu’s efforts prove fruitful, a coalition comprising PSD, PNL, and USR could be formed, with 77 seats in the Senate and 175 in the Chamber of Deputies—sufficient for a stable majority. Adding the seats from the Hungarian minority organisation, UDMR, is also possible. This political force consistently joins the majority to better advocate for Hungarian minority interests. Consequently, a potential PSD-PNL-USR-UDMR coalition would hold 87 seats in the Senate (where 69 are required) and 197 in the Chamber of Deputies (where 166 are needed).
This configuration, announced ahead of the presidential second round, is not merely about forming a coalition. It signals voter support for Elena Lasconi. While Lasconi is not a particularly popular politician, as evidenced by the first-round results, the mathematics of the second round are different. Voters are likely to cast their votes more against an unfavourable candidate than in favour of their preferred one. In this competition, Lasconi has substantial chances, though no guarantees, even with unanimous backing from future coalition partners.