Marginal Comeback and Putin Behind the Scenes

The unexpected and brutal success of the ultra-right, pro-Russian populist Călin Georgescu in the first round of Romania's presidential election has shaken the political scene. Georgescu secured nearly 23% of the vote, surpassing established mainstream candidates, including centre-left populist and current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, as well as pro-European liberal and centre-right Elena Lasconi. The outcome of this first round sets the stage for an intriguing second round on 8 December, one week after Romania’s parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, in another NATO eastern flank country, Poland, an equally significant political shift seems to be brewing. Although Poland’s presidential elections are scheduled for May, the campaign is already in full swing, significantly influencing the country’s political landscape. Both Romania and Poland share borders with Ukraine, which is currently defending itself against Russian aggression. These nations are vital logistical hubs for the supply of essential goods and weaponry to Ukraine, as well as NATO’s frontline against the Russian threat. Consequently, Romania and Poland have become priority targets for Kremlin hybrid attacks.

This year, elections in Central and Eastern Europe are undeniably in the crosshairs of Putin's hybrid warfare. The trend has been evident in national elections across Moldova, Romania, and Georgia, as well as the European Parliament elections held in June.

The impact of Kremlin interference has also been felt in heavyweight EU and NATO countries like France and Germany. It was apparent during France’s snap elections in the summer and in Germany’s state parliament elections this autumn. A Russian footprint is expected to emerge again during Germany’s early Bundestag elections in February 2025.

A recurring pattern is noticeable: marginal or previously unknown political forces are gaining prominence, often at the expense of mainstream parties and politicians. The latter are under relentless propaganda attacks, with their past mistakes or decisions during crises—such as the COVID-19 pandemic or in response to Russian aggression—scrutinised.

Marginal candidates often exploit their outsider status, accusing mainstream leaders of being responsible for the nation’s woes. They campaign on slogans like, “These old politicians are to blame for everything, but we are new and untainted by corruption or errors.” This narrative, however, omits the implicit “yet,” highlighting their lack of experience and accountability.

In Romania, 62-year-old independent candidate Călin Georgescu garnered 22.94% of the vote on 24 November by leveraging populist rhetoric. He capitalised on the country’s real economic challenges, including rising inflation, high unemployment, significant emigration for work within the EU, and the looming Russian threat. Georgescu used digital platforms, particularly TikTok, as his primary propaganda tool to spread his messages.

Despite Romania’s GDP per capita of $18,400—just $4,000 shy of Poland’s—the campaign resonated due to lingering socio-economic difficulties. Georgescu’s Eurosceptic and anti-NATO rhetoric contrasts sharply with the tangible benefits of Romania’s membership in these organisations, such as NATO’s bolstered military presence and EU-funded development programmes that bring jobs and billions in infrastructure investments.

The Candidates and Their Positions

Elena Lasconi, the centre-right leader of the opposition Save Romania Union, secured second place with 19.18%. Current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), finished third with 19.15%. This marks a historic low for PSD, as it failed to advance its candidate to the second round for the first time.

Ultra-right candidate George Simion of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) claimed fourth place with 13.86%, while Nicolae Ciucă of the Liberal Party (PNL) garnered only 8.79%—a record low for a PNL candidate. Mircea Geoană, former NATO Deputy Secretary General, managed just 6.32%.

Implications for the Second Round and Beyond

Simion’s supporters are likely to back Georgescu in the second round, bolstering his chances. Lasconi, on the other hand, must rally the supporters of Geoană and Ciucă, but the fragmentation of centrist and liberal forces complicates her task.

The parliamentary elections on 1 December are equally critical. Marginal candidates collectively attracted over 36% of the vote, suggesting that AUR could secure a disproportionately large share of seats. However, increased voter turnout—only 53% participated in the first round—could potentially alter the dynamics.

Although Romania's presidency is largely ceremonial, it carries substantial influence, particularly in representing the country at EU and NATO summits and in appointing judiciary and intelligence leaders. The current president, Klaus Iohannis of PNL, has focused on anti-corruption during his two terms. The current election, however, is centred on entirely different themes.