Russia Shows No Willingness to Compromise in Ukraine Peace Talks – ISW

Russia is showing no willingness to compromise in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, insisting on ultimatums that conflict with the peace proposals of Kyiv and the West.

The Gaze reports on it, referring to the Instiute for the Study of War.

The US side places responsibility for the next steps on the Kremlin, noting that “the ball is currently in [Russia’s] court” to respond to four documents prepared during recent negotiations between the US, Ukraine, and Europe. NATO Ambassador Matt Whitaker stated that the heavy losses Russian forces are suffering for “very small” gains on the battlefield do not push the Kremlin to seek a peaceful settlement.

Russia has already rejected Ukrainian and European counterproposals and continues to insist on its own conditions. 

"The Kremlin has repeatedly made demands that are incompatible with many proposals in the 20-point plan and shown that it is not interested in a resolution based on compromises, like the ones the latest document seems to embody," the report states.

Russia’s demands include the full withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from four regions, Ukraine abandoning NATO membership and committing to neutrality, the demilitarization and “denazification” of the country, recognition of Russian-annexed territories, and the lifting of Western sanctions.

Sources close to the Kremlin indicate that Russia is likely to push for changes to the 20-point plan due to the absence of provisions banning NATO expansion, ensuring Ukraine’s neutral status, limiting Ukrainian armed forces, and guaranteeing the status of the Russian language. This steadfast stance underscores the low prospects for the current peace agreement and the likelihood of continued confrontation.

Moreover, statements from Russian State Duma deputies and insider sources reflect Russia’s likely discontent with the latest proposals and align with recent Kremlin messaging on its uncompromising negotiating stance. Alexei Chepa, First Deputy Head of the State Duma International Affairs Committee, criticized the plan for lacking a clause prohibiting Ukraine’s NATO membership and rejected proposals for Ukrainian participation in managing the ZNPP. 

Repeatedly, Russia has framed any future peace settlement as needing to address the alleged “root causes” of the war—NATO expansion and purported discrimination against Russian speakers. 

An expert from The New York Times suggests that Moscow is likely to reject the new 20-point peace plan because it does not meet Russia’s long-standing demands, particularly regarding Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied territories and a permanent exclusion from NATO. Despite the heavy economic and military costs of its full-scale invasion, Russia can afford to continue the war thanks to a steady flow of new recruits, reducing the urgency to compromise. 

At the same time, Russia continues negotiations as a tactical move to maintain working relations with Washington and avoid being seen as solely responsible for the ongoing conflict. 

As The Gaze reported earlier, Russia opposed an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, calling it a neglect of the causes of the conflict, which once again demonstrates the Kremlin's unwillingness to achieve a just peace.