Temperature of the Race Reaches Boiling Point

Kamala Harris, not yet officially declared the Democratic Party candidate, and Donald Trump, the Republican Party candidate, have entered into a fierce battle. Harris' starting position a month ago seemed weak, but the situation has changed significantly, according to polls. Harris and Trump are vying for support from all voter demographics – from blue-collar workers to ambitious venture capitalists. Each day brings new scandals and statistics.

The financial strength of each candidate is evident from the funds raised for their campaigns. As of the evening of 25 July, according to opensecrets.org, Kamala Harris had $294.2 million in her campaign committee and $130.96 million in external funds, totalling $425.16 million. In comparison, Donald Trump had $216.86 million in his campaign committee and $233.4 million in external funds - $450,26 million in total.

A week later, 1 August, the gap narrowed: Harris's total financial resources stood at $458.8 million, while Trump's were $472.8 million. Thus, the gap decreased from $25.1 million to $14 million in one week.

Of course, the financial support and intentions of campaign donors are crucial for the race – campaign funds allow candidates to promote themselves, share their plans, and sway undecided voters. However, even more critical is the support of the voters themselves.

A month ago, the day after the debate between Biden and Trump, a Data for Progress poll was conducted with just over a thousand potential voters and a margin of error of about 3 percentage points. According to its data, Vice President Kamala Harris garnered 45% compared to 48% for Donald Trump in a direct contest. Interestingly, at that time, Joe Biden and Trump had the same results in a direct contest.

Biden's exit from the race significantly altered the landscape. The latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polls in swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) showed Kamala Harris receiving approval from 48% of voters compared to 47% for Donald Trump. While the difference is still within the margin of error, the momentum has shifted in favour of Harris.

The change in the Democratic candidate has also had a notable effect on voter enthusiasm. More African American and Latino voters are now ready to go to the polls in these states. While 44% of voters overall are certain or likely to vote, 64% of African American voters and 56% of Latino voters share this certainty. The determination of young people to vote has also increased, with 61% of Generation Z ready or likely to vote.

Donald Trump is attempting to undermine Harris's popularity among African American voters. On 31 July, during the largest annual gathering of African American journalists, Trump made an unfounded claim that Kamala Harris had not consistently identified with her Black heritage. “...I don’t know, is she Indian or Black? But you know what, I respect either one, but obviously, she doesn’t, because she was Indian to the end, and then all of a sudden she made a switch and went – became Black,” Trump said to the crowd. Harris responded almost immediately: “This was the same old display of division and disrespect… The American people deserve better.”

But is the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll in seven states representative? Although it is significant, because voting in swing states can determine the election outcome, as it did during Barack Obama’s campaign.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted from 26 to 28 July, aimed to cover all voters with a margin of error of 3.5%. The result? Kamala Harris is supported by 43% of registered voters, while Donald Trump is supported by 42%. Again, the difference is within the margin of error, but the overall trend is clear.

Of course, Kamala Harris is currently enjoying a "honeymoon" phase with voters. Expectations for her still need to be confirmed as voters examine her programme more closely. At the moment, it is believed that Trump is gaining popularity with his promises to solve economic problems and illegal immigration, while Harris is more focused on healthcare issues. However, it would be a mistake to assume this will remain the case.

For example, on 31 July, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as a candidate for President of the United States. This indicates that true "blue-collar" workers, who are focused on economic issues, support the Democratic candidate. This is a strong signal, as this union represents approximately 370,000 workers, is very active, and has significant influence in Michigan, a key swing state.

On the other end of the spectrum are venture capitalists and high-tech leaders. It is known that Tesla founder Elon Musk actively supports Trump, and entrepreneur and investor David Sacks, former PayPal executive and close friend of Musk, is raising funds for Trump's campaign.

However, on 31 July, more than 200 venture capitalists joined a public petition supporting Kamala Harris as part of the "VCs for Kamala" initiative. This petition, published online, includes values traditionally associated with Republicans: "We spend our days searching for, investing in, and supporting entrepreneurs who are building the future. We are pro-business, pro-American Dream, pro-entrepreneurship, and pro-technological progress." Among the initiators are industry heavyweights such as Mark Cuban, LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, Vinod Khosla (all three billionaires), as well as industry captains like Brook Byers (Kleiner Perkins), Ron Conway (SV Angel), Aileen Lee (Cowboy Ventures), and many others.

This means that the financial and intellectual resources of ambitious American entrepreneurs will support Kamala Harris. Yes, equally ambitious figures in venture capital and high-tech business support Trump. But previously, the Democrats did not attempt to gather such a broad support base.

Of course, very hot months lie ahead, and much can change suddenly. New topics will gradually emerge, in addition to purely domestic issues. Trump and Harris will inevitably mention the Middle East crisis, the war in Ukraine, and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. It is now clear that this game will not be one-sided.