The Future of the World Order

Human activity is characterized by several basic features: it is conscious, volitional, and purposeful. Moreover, these characteristics determine not only individual activity but also collective activity. Because of this, current events and processes, including political ones, should be understood not only from the perspective of what is happening now or what may happen, and not even through the prism of what consequences it will have, but first of all with the awareness of the goal to which volitional efforts are being made. 

The possible scenarios of the end of the bloody and senseless war that Russia has unleashed against Ukraine are not an exception. 

There may be many possible endings to this war. Each scenario will have far-reaching consequences, not only at the local (Russia-Ukraine) or regional (Europe) levels but also on a global scale. 

However, the likelihood of each of these options – falling on a speculative spectrum between the death of human civilization as a result of a nuclear catastrophe and the creation of a new system of international relations with a world order that will ensure the further development and prosperity of the global civilization – does not depend on blind chance or the whims of fortune. The realization will depend on who and what efforts will be made to bring this or that scenario to life. 

Of course, the role of chance cannot be discounted. However, as the old saying goes, “If a man knows not which port he sails, no wind is favorable.”

Ukraine's Peace Formula

With this in mind, Volodymyr Zelenskyy's "Peace Formula" is a vision of the future the conscious, willful efforts of humanity should aim to achieve. 

One should note that the provisions of the above-mentioned formula relate not only to the future of Ukraine itself. 

Most of the provisions of this formula do not even mention Ukraine at all: 

• radiation and nuclear safety,

• food security,

• energy security, 

• release of all prisoners and deportees, 

• implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity and world order, 

• withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, 

• restoration of justice, 

• countering ecocide, 

• preventing escalation,

• fixing the end of the war. 

All of these points are important not only and not so much for Ukraine but for the entire world order, which creates the preconditions for peaceful, secure coexistence of humanity for the sake of development and prosperity. 

With this, the insistence on the need to take them as the foundation for ending the war is not a manifestation of Ukraine's national selfishness, which allegedly seeks to achieve its goals by infringing on or neglecting the interests of other states and nations. On the contrary, as the President of Ukraine put it: "The Peace Formula is an important platform not only for a just end to the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine but can become a universal basis for ending other military conflicts on the planet and overcoming global problems."

There Are No Alternatives

We should realize that any other option for ending this war that neglects at least one of the points of the above formula will have far-reaching consequences for the current world order, which will be felt by even the people and states that currently believe that the war waged by Russia against Ukraine has nothing to do with them. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, Gabrielius Landsbergis, was very clear on this point, stating, "Our children will curse us in the trenches we are digging for them."

That is why, instead of unproductive and sometimes outright destructive efforts to invent alternative formulas for peace, we should focus on conscious, strong-willed actions to achieve a common goal - a sustainable and just peace, the foundation for which should be the provisions proposed by Zelenskyy. 

Unfortunately, it is quite obvious that this Peace Formula is unlikely to be approved by the UN. Moreover, the inability of this organization to either approve or ensure the implementation of the cornerstone principles proposed by Zelenskyy to end the Russian-Ukrainian war and prevent the recurrence of such bloodshed in the future is a clear indication of the deep crisis of one of the cornerstone institutions of the current system of international relations. 

Peace Summit

It is this helplessness of the UN that prompts diplomats, not only Ukrainian ones, to work on preparing and holding a global Peace Summit where states would express their support for Ukraine's Peace Formula.

Of course, even after the approval of this formula at the relevant Summit, the issue of ensuring the implementation of such a decision will remain open. However, the very raising of this question is a manifestation of a long-standing desire to create instruments and structures (not yet institutionalized) that can be considered parallel to the UN to some extent and may eventually replace the organization, or at least become a "superstructure" or an addition to it. 

Failure to implement the principles underlying Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Peace Formula will entail further erosion of international organizations and the disintegration of the world into blocs of states with antagonistic interests, which will sooner or later make armed confrontation between them inevitable. With all the consequences of such a confrontation for human civilization.

This is not just about the future of Ukraine or even Europe. It is about our common human future...or lack thereof.