Why the West Needs Ukraine's Victory

Western politicians are constantly talking about the need for Ukraine to win, noting that this is in the interest of their countries. At the same time, words are not always backed up by concrete steps to help Ukraine achieve this victory. And the very understanding of the significance of Ukraine's victory is not yet clear and distinct enough for many citizens of civilized countries that help Ukraine.

Mostly, when people talk about the need to help Ukraine, they appeal to moral arguments. Ukraine has to win as a democracy that has chosen the path of European and Euro-Atlantic integration and is resisting a foreign dictatorship. Or simply as a sovereign state that is a full member of the United Nations and has the full right to defend itself.

But for many, moral arguments may seem too abstract to be worth spending concrete material resources on. Therefore, it is worth reminding that the interests of the civilized world go far beyond purely moral or ideological arguments.

Military Arguments

An interesting forecast on what will happen to NATO in the event of Ukraine's defeat in the war with the Russian Federation was made by the Institute for the Study of War. The main points of the forecast are as follows. If the West fails to provide assistance, Ukraine could be completely occupied, Russian troops would advance to the borders of the Alliance, and NATO's European forces would have nothing to hold them back. 

Therefore, enabling Ukraine to regain control of its territory is much more profitable and cheaper than cutting aid or freezing the conflict now. In addition, a defeat would force the United States to urgently move troops to the European border. The United States will have to choose between maintaining enough aircraft in Asia to defend Taiwan and deterring or repelling Russia's attack. A Ukrainian victory would put the most capable army on the European continent on the front lines of NATO's defense.

At the same time, for the West, the war is currently developing in a completely positive way. Ukraine's defense forces have destroyed almost 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022. And this is a serious argument not to reduce, but to increase assistance to Ukraine. Given all these arguments, Ukraine must receive assistance, and our partners are well aware of this. The logic here is simple and clear: either to help Ukraine now or to fight on our own later, having a very serious enemy as an opponent. 

The Collapse of the Security System

Although the United States has no specific military alliance treaties with Ukraine, it has repeatedly declared its unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, which has been confirmed by the allocation of significant funds and means to fight back against Russian aggression.

Ukraine is perceived by the entire world as an ally of the United States, and thus any victories and defeats of Ukraine will be victories and defeats of the United States and other Western countries, and will affect their perception in the world.

If the United States is unable or unwilling to fight for Ukraine, will it fight for its other partners? Where is the line beyond which a real war will begin? There may be even more questions like this.

A separate topic is the destruction of international institutions and the very concept of nuclear nonproliferation. As you know, Ukraine is a country that gave up one of the world's largest nuclear weapons capabilities in exchange for "guarantees" of its own security from the world's leading powers, including the United States, Great Britain, and France, as well as the aggressor, the Russian Federation. 

Obviously, these "guarantees" set forth in the well-known Budapest Memorandum proved to be ineffective. However, the commitments of the United States and other Western countries to Ukraine have remained in place. No matter how one assesses their legal force. If Ukraine wins, most of the issues will disappear one way or another, but if it does not, the whole world will realize that only nuclear weapons are a real guarantee of security. Not papers. The world will be facing an unprecedented nuclear arms race, and the consequences of all this are hard to overestimate.

Geopolitical Situation

At the moment, a coalition of large non-democratic states is increasingly forming that opposes the West, with China, Russia and Iran playing the leading role, and North Korea, Hamas and Hezbollah, and a number of other entities, often of an openly terrorist nature, alongside them. Together, they are now increasingly being called the "Axis of Evil," but the main thing is that they all really oppose democratic Western states, view them as enemies, and are ready to wage war with them in different parts of the world.

It is absolutely clear that any Russian victory in the war with Ukraine will be a joint victory of the entire "Axis of Evil", which will start the spread of war across the globe. The next bark could be either a Chinese attack on Taiwan or a North Korean attack on the South. Similarly, Iran could intensify hostilities against Israel and the United States in the Middle East, and Russia could continue to "return" the lands of the former USSR by attacking the Baltic states that are members of NATO. 

Each of these options would require direct military intervention by the United States, as it would not be able to stand by and watch its direct allies being destroyed. At the same time, the US position will be much weaker in such circumstances, and the "Axis of Evil" will feel more confident and have serious resources for further offensive. Thus, such an offensive will be inevitable.

In general, the absence of Ukraine's victory will make this world much less stable, full of military conflicts, an arms race, mass production of nuclear weapons, and a situation as close to World War III as possible. The current spending on assistance to Ukraine will seem like a trifle to the citizens of the nuclear powers if they themselves are forced to spend additional billions on their own weapons. Weapons that will be used by their own citizens, because there will be no one else to deter the aggressors. Ukraine's victory is indeed the best investment for the West, which will not only save many lives, but will also "save" such sums of money that are hard to imagine.