Azerbaijan to Widen Gap with Russia and Move Closer to Turkey, Expert Says
Russia has failed to influence Azerbaijan and is increasingly using hybrid warfare methods against Baku. This confrontation will intensify. Baku will continue to distance itself from Moscow and move closer to Ankara, said political expert Ruben Megrabyan.
The Gaze writes about it, referring to a broadcast on the FREEDOM TV channel.
Russia has suffered a fiasco in terms of its influence and control over the countries of Western Asia — Azerbaijan and Armenia — and is now using elements of hybrid warfare against them, constantly escalating the situation.
‘Russian influence in our region has catastrophically collapsed, and the situation can be described as a moral and political fiasco of historic proportions. And now Russia is escalating tensions in its relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan,’ Megrabyan said.
Moscow is using various hybrid instruments against Yerevan and Baku. Megrabyan noted that with regard to Baku, the Kremlin has chosen to oppress the Azerbaijani diaspora — Azerbaijanis living in Russia are subject to systematic repression.
Russia is also constantly trying to pit Armenia and Azerbaijan against each other.
‘Russia is waging a hybrid war against both Azerbaijan and Armenia. But the main thing is that Russia is unable to instrumentalise Armenia against Azerbaijan, just as it is unable to instrumentalise Azerbaijan against Armenia. And this makes Moscow extremely angry,’ the speaker noted.
The downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane by a Russian air defence missile in December 2024 intensified the confrontation between Baku and Moscow.
"This is not the first time that Russia has attacked civilian aircraft. In doing so, Russia is demonstrating an unacceptable and barbaric attitude. And the Azerbaijani plane is no exception. For the Kremlin, apologising for what has been done, even unintentionally, is considered a sign of weakness. Naturally, no self-respecting country whose citizens have died in the course of such criminal actions will put up with this," Megrabyan stressed.
He is confident that Moscow will continue to put pressure on Baku.
“We must be prepared for anything from Russia. Because there are no methods that Russia is not ready to use, there is no meanness that Russia is not capable of. And we must systematically oppose this,” the expert continued.
Baku’s policy is becoming increasingly independent of Moscow. Megrabyan recalled one of the latest statements by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who called on Ukrainians never to agree to occupation. He also recalled the situation when a Ukrainian journalist presented Aliyev with the insignia of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to which the Azerbaijani president replied: "Thank you for what you are doing. Keep up the good work."
‘Aliyev's response to the Ukrainian journalist was not so much for Ukraine. The addressee of this statement was Putin himself. And it was a big and heavy stone in Russia's garden. And it is clear that this will lead to a new round of tension in relations between Russia and Azerbaijan,’ the speaker believes.
Megrabyan is confident that Azerbaijan will continue to distance itself from Russia and increasingly synchronise its policy with Turkey, ‘and this is logical.’
Azerbaijan is preparing a lawsuit against Russia in the case of a passenger plane shot down in December 2024. The Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed near Aktau in Kazakhstan. Thirty-eight people were killed. Azerbaijan claims that the plane was shot down by a Russian air defence missile. Moscow does not recognise this.
As The Gaze reported earlier, on 25 May, during a high-level visit to Baku, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha held a series of meetings with Azerbaijani leaders, including President Ilham Aliyev and Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov, to advance bilateral cooperation and address key regional challenges stemming from Russia's ongoing aggression.