Japan: A New Centre of Power in the East

Shigeru Ishiba is set to return as Japan's Prime Minister on 11 November during an extraordinary parliamentary session. Following recent parliamentary elections, a new government will be formed in Japan, still led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Ishiba's foremost challenge will be to build even closer ties with the new US administration after Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections. The previous Japanese government cooperated well with the Biden administration, but now, more robust contacts are needed to address shared security priorities. The threats posed by the "Axis of Evil" – Moscow-Tehran-Pyongyang – and Beijing’s support for them are growing, requiring swift action. Tokyo is considering the possibility of a meeting between Ishiba and Donald Trump as early as the end of next week when the Japanese Prime Minister will stop in the US en route to the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.

The end of the government crisis, which led to Japan’s snap elections on 27 October, has come. This crisis entered a critical phase exactly a year ago – in November 2023 – when it was revealed that some ministers and lawmakers from the ruling LDP had violated political finance laws, prompting a prosecution investigation. Shortly afterwards, in December 2023, then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida dismissed several party leaders and cabinet members to salvage his administration.

The LDP has only been out of power twice in the past seven decades, as opposition political forces were considerably weaker and hesitant to form alliances. What will happen this time?

A Fragile Coalition

The corruption scandal continued to unfold steadily, ultimately leading Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to resign in August this year and withdraw from the LDP leadership race. Consequently, Ishiba became the party leader on 1 October. He was confirmed as Prime Minister by the parliament but he dissolved the House of Representatives on 9 October, calling for elections held on 27 October.

This was a bold move, as the ruling party, amid the corruption scandal, had sure to lose parliamentary seats. And it did, with competitors launching fierce attacks on the LDP, invoking the term "Ura-gane" (dark money in Japanese). The ruling party faced opposition from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP).

Both opposition parties pushed for anti-corruption measures, with the centre-right DPFP also calling for economic reforms to benefit the economically active population. Although DPFP had previously entered into situational alliances with the ruling LDP, it emerged as a strong opponent in the October elections.

For the ruling party and its coalition partner, Komeito, to retain a majority in the 465-seat House of Representatives, they needed to secure at least 233 seats. Before the 27 October elections, the distribution was as follows:

• LDP – 256 seats;
• Komeito – 32 seats.

After the elections, the situation worsened, even considering that independent representatives leaned towards cooperation with the LDP:

• LDP – 191 seats;
• Komeito – 24 seats;
• Independent representatives – 6 seats.

Thus, in the new parliamentary configuration, the coalition around the LDP holds 221 seats. The CDP emerged as the primary beneficiary of the elections, increasing its seats from 98 to 148, while the DPFP grew from 7 to 28 seats. Another opposition force, the right-wing Nippon Ishin no Kai (Ishin), became the second-largest opposition party after the CDP, holding 38 seats.

Parliament will now elect the Prime Minister. If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round, a second round will be held between the top two candidates. In the second round, only a simple majority is needed.

One way or another, Shigeru Ishiba, the 67-year-old newly elected LDP leader, will assume the role of Japan’s Prime Minister on 11 November. What do we know about him? He hails from an influential family – his father was the governor of Tottori Province. He first entered parliament in 1986 at the age of just 29, a notable achievement in Japan. Later, in 2007, he was appointed Defence Minister in Yasuo Fukuda’s government and, in 2008, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries in Taro Aso’s government, holding each post for just one year. He then pursued a purely party and parliamentary career.

Japan Aspires, and Japan is Desired

During Donald Trump's first presidency, the US treated Japan as a direct competitor. However, there is a chance for both sides to reconsider this stance to their mutual benefit.

If we examine the combined GDP of allied countries, we see two global centres of power in the Pacific region. The first is AUKUS: the US, the UK, and Australia, with GDPs of $25.43 trillion, $2.67 trillion, and $1.67 trillion, respectively, totalling $29.77 trillion. We can add Japan, the world’s third-largest economy with a GDP of $4.25 trillion. This could be advantageous for Tokyo given the risks posed by the China-Russia axis, which aspires to be the second global power centre. Other hand, China and Russia combined GDP in 2023 was $16.86 trillion ($14.72 trillion and $2.24 trillion, respectively).

But what about other members of the "Axis of Evil" – Moscow-Pyongyang-Tehran? North Korea’s GDP is unknown but certainly not higher than Iran’s, at $0.41 trillion. Thus, the "Axis of Evil" plus China amounts to a maximum of $17.66 trillion.

If we really consider a potential power centre forming around AUKUS, we should also consider Japan, which North Korea views as a target. Similarly, South Korea, another North Korean target, and Taiwan, which Beijing menaces, would also be significant. This would bring the economic weight of AUKUS plus three major East Asian democracies to approximately $36.5 trillion totally.

On 31 October, Pyongyang tested its largest nuclear missile, the Hwasong-19, which threatens both the US and Japan. Japanese experts calculated that it could reach the US East Coast.

It seems likely that Shigeru Ishiba will raise these points when he meets with Donald Trump, already elected but not yet in office, with his inauguration scheduled for 20 January 2025.

On 6 November, Ishiba wrote on X (formerly Twitter): "Heartfelt congratulations to Donald Trump. I truly look forward to working closely with you to further bolster the Japan-US Alliance & cooperate to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific."

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol also announced his readiness to work with the new White House administration on X: "Congratulations to Donald Trump! Under your strong leadership, the future of the ROK-U.S. alliance and America will shine brighter. Look forward to working closely with you."

Close cooperation between the US and both countries strengthens Washington's security track. Trump is likely to appreciate Kishida’s defence budget policies, which, in 2022, amounted to 1.08% of GDP, rising to 1.6% in 2024, surpassing the previous "no more than 1%" restriction. Because during his first term, Trump often criticised European NATO allies for their insufficient defence spending.

The Japanese government signed a $2.35 billion deal for American Tomahawk cruise missiles in January. The agreement involves the purchase of 200 Tomahawk Block IV, 200 Tomahawk Block V, and 14 Tactical Tomahawk weapon control systems, with delivery expected during Trump’s second term. So there's a good reason for smiles during the meeting Ishiba’s team is currently organising.

Japan is actively advancing its cooperation with NATO, a pragmatic move given the threats posed by Russia and China, which confront the Alliance. On 1 November, Japan signed a bilateral security agreement with the EU. Tokyo is also heavily involved in supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression, primarily through humanitarian and financial aid, with military-technical cooperation remaining a possibility. A bilateral security agreement between Japan and Ukraine was signed in June.

Obviously, Trump may well welcome Tokyo's proposals for joint actions to displace Beijing from markets dominated by Chinese goods.