Tough Tour
The tour of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to East Asian countries was somewhat extraordinary. Plans had to be adjusted due to the urgent visit of Prime Minister Netanyahu to the US. However, the results are impressive. The US is building a network to resist autocratic regimes in Asia. Washington is demanding that Beijing stop supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine and is also rebooting ties with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. This is not entirely unexpected, as several strong signals were sent 10 months ago during the G20 summit in Delhi. But now, it’s much tougher and more effective.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken initially planned a whirlwind tour of six Asian countries, including four in Southeast Asia. He planned to start the trip with a visit to Vietnam to pay tribute to the late communist leader of the country, Nguyen Phu Trong. Then, he was to visit Laos for the 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting for a series of bilateral talks. After that, Blinken planned to visit Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Mongolia.
His trip was scheduled to start on 24 July, but an unexpected visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the US made some adjustments necessary. Blinken’s trip was delayed by one day, so he missed the state funeral of Nguyen Phu Trong, who died on 19 July at the age of 80 after serving as General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam for 13 years. On 27 July, Blinken visited Laos for negotiations on the sidelines of the 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, primarily with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Blinken also met with Laotian Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, but this meeting appeared more as a protocol expression of respect for the host country of the region’s foreign ministers.
The ASEAN Regional Forum was primarily focused on security issues. Diplomats from Russia, India, China, Australia, Japan, the EU, and of course, the US were present. Key topics of discussion included the conflict in Gaza, the war in Ukraine, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, and tensions in the South China Sea. Notably, the forum had a somewhat global character given the range of issues discussed. It served as a platform where representatives of superpowers could meet on neutral ground for quick contacts during a very tense moment.
A New Powerful Partner
After his visit to Laos, Antony Blinken arrived in Vietnam late on 27 July to pay respects to Nguyen Phu Trong and hold brief talks with the country’s leaders. Blinken met with Trong’s successor, Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong, former head of Vietnam’s internal security agency, and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. During the meeting, Blinken reminded that the Biden administration has been actively working to strengthen strategic ties with Hanoi. It is worth noting that in September 2023, after participating in the G20 summit, US President Joe Biden visited Hanoi, where he had very productive talks with the Vietnamese leadership, known for its pragmatic approach to relations with both Beijing and Washington.
During Biden’s visit, the countries elevated their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. The US indeed sees cooperation with Vietnam as a means to gain greater independence from supply chains based on Chinese suppliers. Therefore, it is quite understandable that the US Department of Commerce may soon announce the elevation of Vietnam’s status to a “market economy” country, something Hanoi has long sought for expanding its exports to the US. This upgrade might happen despite strong opposition from certain US industries, from steel manufacturers to agribusiness.
Hot Discussion Between Ministers
China has repeatedly received strong signals from both Europe and the United States regarding their desire for a more restrained foreign policy from Beijing. Three years ago, the focus was on Beijing's intentions concerning Taiwan and the hyperactivity around the Belt and Road Initiative. Now, there is the added issue of Beijing’s involvement in supporting Russia's aggressive war in Ukraine. The response is no longer limited to traditional diplomatic expressions of "concern"; secondary sanctions are now being imposed on Chinese companies that help the Russian military-industrial complex circumvent US and EU sanctions.
Therefore, the meeting in Laos between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi resulted in no more than a demonstration of willingness for further negotiations – what diplomats call the "importance of maintaining open lines of communication."
What was the actual discussion about? Blinken expressed his concern over Beijing's "destabilising actions" in the South China Sea, including areas where Philippine military personnel are stationed. Incidentally, the Philippines is also marked as a destination in Blinken's current Asian tour.
Blinken also emphasised the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The choice of words is significant – it’s about the Taiwan Strait, not Taiwan itself. Even such cautious language caused irritation from the Chinese side: following the meeting, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Wang Yi responded by stating that China would counter any provocation from what he called "Taiwan independence forces."
"The Secretary of State once again expressed serious concern about China's support for Russia's defence-industrial base and made it clear that if China does not take steps to eliminate this threat to European security, the US will take measures" said a US State Department statement regarding the negotiations between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Regarding the war in Ukraine, the US State Department’s statement mentioned Blinken’s "serious concern" over China’s support for Russia's military-industrial complex. This is likely the first time such a strong formulation has been used. The statement also noted that Blinken warned that if Beijing fails to eliminate "this threat to European security," Washington will continue to take appropriate countermeasures. In response, Wang Yi expressed the unacceptability of so-called "unilateral" sanctions. As they say – the ball is in Beijing's court. It will be interesting to see China's subsequent actions regarding Russia and what will be included in the next package of US sanctions.
Photo: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin (on the left), Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, and Japanese Defence Minister Minoru Kihara (on the right) held a meeting in Tokyo on 28 July, where they openly highlighted "the increasing of provocative cooperation between Russia and China." Source: Antony Blinken X (formerly Twitter).
Japan Returns
It appears that the level of threats to Japan from North Korea, which acts as a proxy for China, and China itself has reached such a level that Tokyo's previously restrained voice is changing its tone. Following talks in Tokyo between the US and Japanese foreign and defence ministers, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed his readiness to strengthen the deterrence and response capabilities of his country's alliance with the United States in various fields. Kishida made this announcement during a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on 28 July. What did the ministers agree on?
"Today, Secretary of Defence Austin and I met with Japanese Foreign Minister Kamikawa and Defence Minister Kihara. We reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to deepen defence industry and technology cooperation and discussed ways to implement strategic initiatives for our important Alliance" - Antony Blinken, X (formerly Twitter).
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, and Japanese Defence Minister Minoru Kihara held a meeting in Tokyo on 28 July, where they openly highlighted "the increasing provocative cooperation between Russia and China, including joint actions and exercises near Japan and China's support for Russia's defence industrial base." They also strongly condemned the cooperation between Russia and North Korea, including the procurement of ballistic missiles and ammunition, which violates UN Security Council resolutions. Overall, this collaboration between two authoritarian regimes poses the risk of "the transfer of weapons of mass destruction or ballistic missile technology to North Korea."
They also harshly criticised China, which is expanding its nuclear arsenal, attempting to "alter the international order in its favour at the expense of others," engaging in destabilising actions in the region, "including dangerous interceptions at sea and in the air, attempts to disrupt resource extraction by other countries, and the dangerous use of coast guard and maritime police vessels."
Amid these threats from China, the participants agreed to increase the US military presence in Japan, including the establishment of a US forces headquarters in Japan, which will report to the commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command.
It seems others will join this team: on the same day, but before the 2+2 format talks, Japanese Defence Minister Minoru Kihara held the first trilateral talks with Austin and South Korean Defence Minister Shin Won-sik. This initiative came from Tokyo, and such talks will be regular, according to agreements.
In light of this news, the Quad format talks, also held in Tokyo, are not as surprising. Though at another time, they would have garnered enormous attention. In this case, it was a meeting involving Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. What did they discuss? Approximately the same topics: cybersecurity and maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region with stern looks towards Beijing, which is openly referred to as a source of increasing tension.