Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia Brace for Russian Cyberattacks Amid Disconnection from Soviet-Era Power Grid with Russia and Belarus

On 9 February, the European Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will disconnect from the Soviet-era common power grid with Russia and Belarus, which will cut off power to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and switch to the European Union's regional grid. Against this backdrop, the European Baltic States are preparing for Russian cyberattacks, Politico reports. ‘Estonia has prepared for many possible risk scenarios regarding our withdrawal from BRELL, including cyber threats,’ said Gert Auvert, head of the Estonian Cyber Security Centre.

The country is ready to use its cyber reserve, which includes the Estonian Defence League's cyber unit and a group of volunteer cyber defenders.

Lithuanian Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas said the transition would be a ‘smooth process’, but the authorities are nevertheless ‘ready for even the worst-case scenarios at the technical level’. A spokesperson for Lithuania's Energy Ministry said it had taken ‘additional measures and plans to increase our preparedness’.

As early as Saturday, all power lines between them and Russia, Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave between EU members Poland and Lithuania and the sea, will be shut down one by one. For the next 24 hours, the Baltic power system will operate independently in an ‘island mode’. The next day, on 10 February, the Baltic power grid will be interconnected with the networks of continental Europe and Northern Europe through several connections with Finland, Sweden and Poland.

Work on this project accelerated after Russian dictator Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine three years ago. The Baltic States, which are NATO members, have had cold relations with Russia since declaring independence from the USSR in 1990 due to the occupation of these countries. Relations deteriorated further with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This has also significantly deteriorated Russia's relations with the EU and all democratic countries. 

The severance of Soviet-era electricity ties with the aggressor Russia has geopolitical and symbolic significance. 

‘This is a physical disconnection from the last element of our dependence on the Russian-Belarusian energy system,’ Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda told the Associated Press in a recent interview.

The three Baltic States were connected to Russia and Belarus by 16 power lines. These networks have been dismantled over the years. At the same time, a new network was created to connect them to the rest of the European Union, including submarine cables in the Baltic Sea, which Russia has been sabotaging with the help of its shadow fleet.