Ministers Seek Keys to Peace in the Middle East
On 24 October, Israel launched strikes on military targets in Syria – in Damascus, the capital, and in Homs, located 140 kilometres north. This occurred the day after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's major visit to Israel and just hours after his meetings with members of the Saudi royal family, including Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. On the same day, an international conference began in Paris with the participation of representatives from 70 countries and 15 international organisations. However, high expectations from this meeting should be tempered. Why is the Middle East peace process stalling? Likely because Tehran still opposes peace in the region.
During the night of 23 to 24 October, Israel launched strikes not only on targets in Syria but also in Lebanon, following Hezbollah’s rocket attack on Israeli cities during the religious festival of Simchat Torah. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's regional tour continues. He is pushing for a ceasefire and the release of hostages, who have been held by Hamas for over a year since the terrorist attack on 7 October 2023.
"Israel has achieved significant strategic objectives to ensure that 7 October is never repeated. Now is the time to end the war, bring the hostages home, and chart a new path forward that allows the Palestinian people to rebuild their lives," Antony Blinken declared at the airport on 23 October as he left Israel for Saudi Arabia. Despite a series of meetings in Israel, no conclusive announcements were made, meaning the negotiation process is ongoing, with Blinken’s Middle East trip bearing the hallmarks of shuttle diplomacy – successive meetings with interested parties to align their positions.
At the same time, after Blinken’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it was revealed that the Israeli leader insisted on implementing security and political changes in Lebanon to create safe conditions in northern Israel. It is well known that due to constant rocket attacks and shelling from southern Lebanon, Israelis have been forced to flee their homes and seek refuge in the more southern regions of their country.
No concrete results were announced following Netanyahu and Blinken's 150-minute meeting on 22 October, although the communication was described as friendly and productive by the Israeli prime minister’s office. However, Netanyahu did issue a statement afterwards, stressing that Israel is working hard to return the hostages still being held in Gaza and that the elimination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in mid-October "may have a positive effect on the return of the hostages, the achievement of all the war’s goals, and the day after the war."
It is doubtful that Antony Blinken was overly pleased with such statements, which indicate one thing: Israel is in despair and has resorted to force after ten months of diligent attempts to resolve pressing issues through negotiations. These issues include the release of hostages captured a year ago and the cessation of terrorist attacks by Hamas from Gaza and Hezbollah from Lebanon.
Photo: Defence Minister Yoav Gallant meets with pilots and ground staff at Hatzor Airbase. Discussions centred around Iran. Source: Yoav Gallant, social network X
In fact, the airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and Syrian military facilities immediately after Blinken’s visit are not only military operations but also diplomatic signals. Almost simultaneously with Blinken's statement before boarding the plane to fly from Israel to Saudi Arabia, a message appeared on X (formerly Twitter) featuring a video address by Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. He had met with pilots and ground staff at the Hatzor Airbase, where he emphasized: “After we strike Iran, everyone will understand your strength, the process of preparation, and training – any enemy that tries to harm the State of Israel will pay a high price.”
This statement came amid Washington's calls for Israel to be restrained in responding to the massive Iranian ballistic missile strike that took place on 3 September.
If Netanyahu did not halt military action after Blinken's visit, what was the purpose of the trip? Washington holds significant influence, and its voice is heard. It seems that an international isolation of Iran is currently underway, and Blinken flew to Riyadh to secure a deal on normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
On 23 October, U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham stated in comments to Reuters that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that day and saw a real prospect of concluding such an agreement within the next two months. It seems that this path is much more productive than the major conference on Middle East issues that France is hosting on 24 October.
France has traditionally maintained close ties with Lebanon, its former protectorate. However, its efforts do not appear particularly promising at this time. The framework document presented to conference participants in Paris declares the need to cease hostilities based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006. That UN resolution calls for the liberation of southern Lebanon from any forces or weapons other than Lebanese ones. It seems that the U.S. is somewhat irritated by this idea, given that the future of Hezbollah appears to have fallen out of focus at this conference, just as it did with the 2006 UN Security Council resolution too. Yet, Hezbollah is responsible for the escalation that occurred in this region following the terrorist attack on 7 October 2024. Perhaps that is why the conference lacks prominent U.S. or Saudi Arabian representation.