Yom Kippur Approaching: The Middle East on the Brink of a Major War
The spiral of violence in the Middle East continues to escalate due to Iran and its proxies, but global leaders primarily direct their calls for a ceasefire towards Israel. Against this backdrop, the only sensible voice seems to be the calls for no one to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize this year. Today, 11 October, marks the beginning of Yom Kippur (the Day of Atonement), a significant religious holiday for Jews. Rabbis have permitted worshippers to bring smartphones to synagogues, despite this being traditionally forbidden by religious law. This exception is due to the high risk of another large-scale missile attack, which Iran may carry out today. Israel has had a tragic experience on this day: on 6 October 1973, a coalition of Arab states used the holiday as an opportunity for a coordinated attack on the country.
On Thursday evening, 10 October, Israeli jets once again targeted sites in Beirut, in pursuit of leaders of the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah. Simultaneously, Hezbollah militants from southern Lebanon launched rockets at northern Israel. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) continued operations in southern Lebanon, searching for Hezbollah fighters and missile storage bases.
Lebanese sources claim that 22 people were killed and over 100 injured in a building in central Beirut, which had not previously been subjected to air strikes. It is believed that the target was senior Hezbollah leader Wafiq Safa, although he survived. No official confirmation has been provided, although this report has been circulated by both Israeli and Lebanese media. This is far from the first targeted strike by Israeli forces against Hezbollah leaders.
On 27 September, a prominent Hezbollah leader and one of the group's founding members, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in a southern suburb of Beirut. Following this, Iran launched a massive attack on Israel on 1 October.
Earlier, on 20 September, Israel struck a residential building in a Beirut suburb, killing Hezbollah military commander Ibrahim Aqil and 15 other members of the terrorist organisation. In total, 37 people were killed in the attack, likely including both Hezbollah members and civilians.
The latest round of escalation realistically began in early September, when Israeli forces found the bodies of six brutally murdered hostages in a Hamas tunnel under the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip. As reported at the time, the killings had occurred shortly before the bodies were discovered. The victims were among more than 200 hostages taken by Hamas militants a year earlier, during a terrorist attack on Israeli towns near Gaza on 7 October 2023.
In early September, mass demonstrations took place in Israel, with demands for the government to negotiate an immediate peace to save the approximately 100 hostages believed to still be alive and held in Hamas prisons. However, negotiations between the Israeli government and the terrorists' representatives, which had been mediated for about eight months, yielded no positive results. All freed hostages were released as part of negotiations during the first few months following the 7 October 2023 terrorist attack. Alongside Israel’s initial countermeasures in the Gaza Strip in October last year, Hezbollah began launching rockets at northern Israel.
The situation is now teetering on the edge of further escalation—a term used outside Israel to describe potential retaliatory strikes against a massive missile attack by Iran. Israel is receiving a flood of appeals, recommendations, and demands not to launch retaliatory strikes against Iran, which is not only responsible for its own air attacks but also for the actions of its proxies—Hezbollah and Hamas.
For now, Israel continues targeted operations to eliminate Hezbollah and Hamas's combat capabilities, as well as the military leaders of these terrorist organisations. However, no clear decision has been made regarding retaliation against the main source of the threat. A government source told The Times of Israel that during a security cabinet meeting on the night of 10-11 October, no serious resolutions were made. The source explained, "There is a desire among Israelis to coordinate actions with the Americans" concerning possible military responses to Iran’s 1 October missile attack.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, currently visiting Laos, made a statement on 11 October, saying that the United States is working hard to prevent this escalation: "We are working very hard, through deterrence and diplomacy, to ensure this doesn’t happen. Clearly, we share deep concern for the plight of children, women, and men in Gaza, who have been in a dire situation for a year, caught in crossfire incited by Hamas." However, he also emphasised Israel's right to self-defence. On the eve of the US presidential election, this delicate balancing act is likely to dominate American policy towards Israel.
This delicate balance also explains why there are voices calling for no Nobel Peace Prize to be awarded this year. It is worth remembering that last year's winner, the Iranian human rights activist and feminist Narges Mohammadi, was a rather strange choice. While her contributions to human rights, particularly women’s rights, are undisputed, they do not relate to achieving peace. Almost simultaneously with the announcement of her award, a horrific terrorist attack with mass casualties and hostage-taking was carried out by Iran’s proxy group, Hamas.