Russians are Trying to Destabilise the Situation in Moldova from Within through Provocations in Transnistria

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that the incident with the launch of a drone in the pro-Russian self-proclaimed republic of Transnistria is an attempt by Russia to destabilize the situation in Moldova from within. The ISW said this in its new Russian offensive campaign assessment, Ukrinform reports.

Transnistria outlets claimed on March 17 that a single drone struck a helicopter on the territory of an unspecified military unit in Transnistria, posted video footage of the moment of the drone strike, and alleged that the drone flew from the direction of the Odesa region. Neither Transnistria nor Russian authorities have accused Ukrainian forces of conducting the strike as of this writing, but may do so in the future

"ISW cannot independently verify the details of the singular drone strike in Transnistria or identify the responsible actors, but it is unlikely that Ukrainian forces conducted the strike given the limited means used in the strike and the insignificant target. Ukrainian officials have also recently stated that Transnistria does not pose a military threat to Ukraine," ISW analysts said.

Transnistria authorities recently asked Russia for unspecified "zashchita" (defence/protection) against Moldova, and Russia or Russian-linked actors would likely be the beneficiaries of this provocation in order to further the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to set information conditions to justify a variety of Russian hybrid operations that aim to destabilize Moldova, about which ISW has extensively warned.

On March 17, the unrecognized breakaway state of Transnistria (Moldova) reported an explosion and fire at a military unit in Tiraspol as a result of a kamikaze drone attack. It was also reported that the fire after the strike could have destroyed a helicopter.

The Bureau of Reintegration of Moldova stated that the drone strike was intended to spread fear and panic in Transnistria and that this was part of a hostile information operation targeting Moldova.

The bureau also noted that the Moldovan authorities, who are in contact with the Ukrainian side, "do not confirm any attack on the Transnistria region."

The Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council accused Russia of carrying out the attack with the aim of manipulating the information space.