Stolen Victory of the Left in France

Emmanuel Macron is reluctant to concede the victory that the left believe they have won. Three weeks ago, elections in France ended without any significant advantage for any of the three main political forces, which are also widely separated on the political spectrum. Centrist Macron and his "Ensemble" bloc remain in power at least until a feasible coalition is formed. Therefore, the President has proposed to the parliament to postpone decisions regarding the government composition until after the Paris Olympics. This is against the backdrop of terrorist attacks, which "certain forces" have resorted to in order to mar the global sporting event.

This somewhat unexpected chaotic situation was created by early elections in the French parliament, initiated by Emmanuel Macron following the strong performance of the far-right "National Rally" (RN) in the European Parliament elections in early June. Although most polls predicted a victory for the "National Rally," and the first-round voting seemed to confirm this, the second-round results were completely different. Out of a total of 577 seats in the French parliament, the results were:

• NFP (New Popular Front) – 180 seats;
• "Ensemble" – 159 seats;
• RN (National Rally) – 142 seats;
• Republicans – 39 seats;
• Other smaller parties – 57 seats.

A ruling coalition requires at least 289 votes. None of the three heavyweights can form this on their own. Even if all minor political forces joined the leading party, it would still be impossible to form a majority coalition. An agreement between the "Ensemble" alliance and the leftist "New Popular Front" for a government coalition seems unrealistic. The prospect of a coalition involving the "Ensemble" alliance and the "National Rally" appears even less realistic.

Unfortunately for Macron, a likely coalition of the "Ensemble" alliance with the Republicans would only yield 198 seats. No number of small satellite parties would suffice to form a majority, as we can see. Therefore, the government continues to function under 35-year-old Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who served as the face of the "Ensemble" campaign during the elections.

Until After the Holidays

The significant political differences make it impossible to find sufficiently weighty allies in an acceptable timeframe. This is why, on 23 July, three days before the start of the Paris Olympics, Emmanuel Macron announced that the current centrist government, which is temporary, must work at least until the end of the global sports event to avoid "unrest." This was his reaction to the "New Popular Front" nominating its candidate for Prime Minister, a little-known civil servant – 37-year-old economist Lucie Castets. Incidentally, The Gaze predicted three weeks ago that the nomination of a technocrat would be the most likely scenario. However, it seems Macron does not favour this candidate because she has already announced her intention to revoke Macron's pension reform and raise taxes. Otherwise, the NFP would not have nominated her for the position.

The candidate for Prime Minister of France, Lucie Castets, has announced that her priorities as head of government would be "cancelling the pension reform" and "a major tax reform so that everyone pays their fair share."

However, even with the appointment of a technocrat Prime Minister, forming a working coalition for the government will be extremely challenging. The "New Popular Front" wants to implement its extremely populist slogans, including increasing the tax burden on businesses, raising the minimum wage, regulating prices on certain goods, and scepticism towards NATO and the EU. Importantly, the "New Popular Front" does not hide its desire to dismantle the pension reform implemented by the Attal government with Macron's support. This is the same reform that sparked protests since last year.

Regarding the war waged by Russia in Ukraine, the "New Popular Front" has taken a more balanced stance thanks to the involvement of greens and moderate socialists, who are also part of the “New Popular Front.” The NFP believes that Ukraine's territorial integrity must be restored and the aggressor must be punished.

"Ensemble" supports Macron's position on France's active participation in the EU and NATO and the active support of Ukraine in its struggle. However, to be honest, international issues were not prominently featured in the campaign statements of the bloc's leaders. Additionally, the National Rally, which is quite Eurosceptic, through its leader Jordan Bardella, has expressed a desire to support Ukraine in its struggle but to avoid escalating tensions with Russia.

The low likelihood of a coalition between "Ensemble" and the far-right is due to the fact that Bardella, along with the RN, insist on drastically limiting the rights of migrants and imposing restrictions on the movement within the Schengen area for citizens of countries that are not members of this zone. Hence, the radical anti-immigration and Euro-disintegration views of the RN are unlikely to be acceptable to Macron-Attal centrists.

Photo: Lucie Castets has announced that her priorities as head of government will be "repealing the pension reform" and "a major tax reform so that everyone pays their fair share." Source: Lucie Castets X (formerly Twitter)

What Will Happen After the Olympics?

There is much to endure before the Olympic Games conclude. On the opening day of the Games, several attacks on French transport infrastructure occurred. Unknown individuals set fire to high-speed rail equipment, leading to schedule disruptions affecting at least a quarter of a million people. Notably, these acts of sabotage appeared highly coordinated, causing significant damage to SNCF, the operator of the TGV – the high-speed rail network in France.

Reports also indicated attempts at cyberattacks on French infrastructure. Thus, France experienced a clear hybrid attack just three days after Emmanuel Macron warned of potential risks to the Games. It is worth recalling that Russian athletes are banned from representing the Russian flag – the flag of the aggressor nation – at these Games. The "Russian trace" is evident in these attacks, particularly as a Russian national born in 1984 was arrested by the police, leading to a judicial investigation on suspicion of "organising measures that could lead to destabilisation during the Olympic Games."

In recent weeks, France has witnessed numerous actions aimed at stirring public discord on important issues – regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Israel's campaign in Gaza following the Hamas attack on Israeli civilians on 7 October 2023. This creates a challenging backdrop for parliamentary processes and significantly impacts public opinion in France. Hence, Macron likely had good reason to separate the timing of the Games from the internal government crisis.

Regardless, the President is responsible for nominating the Prime Minister, but the National Assembly, France's parliament, can dismiss them. Thus, Macron holds a "blocking vote" in this situation. He has already faced considerable criticism from the left for "trying to steal the left's victory." But this is politics: in modern French history, there have been instances where the Prime Minister and President were from different political camps.