The Ambitious Game Surrounding BRICS
The expanding anti-G7 movement that BRICS is gradually becoming, the attempt to create alternatives to the dollar and euro in international trade – these are perhaps the most significant challenges posed by this organization. How realistic is all of this? There is no definitive answer. However, new risks to the global security system are emerging at a frantic pace. Here are the highlights from the recent BRICS summit.
The BRICS summit, held from August 22nd to 24th in Johannesburg, South Africa, provided more food for thought than a clear path towards a notable transformation of the organization. "Not the right time," most analysts noted, closely observing the event. The participants themselves, as the union welcomes six new members starting January 1, 2024, seem to prioritize economics over geopolitical constructs. Yet, let's not forget the behind-the-scenes competition for global dominance.
What is BRICS?
BRICS consists of countries whose combined potential comprises roughly a quarter of the global economy. The union was formed to bolster competition in global politics. However, BRICS can be called an organization with at least a dual center: China and India have quite distinct interests. Both countries each have over 1.4 billion inhabitants and strive to display their influence in local and global affairs.
One could label BRICS as the "League of the Global South," but the presence of Russia there makes this characterization difficult. In Johannesburg, Russia wasn't condemned, but direct support for its actions in Ukraine wasn't expressed either. Although, as of now, Russia is the sole global supplier of oil and gas among BRICS members. The situation will change radically if Iran and Saudi Arabia join BRICS. But for now, it is what it is.
Therefore, in the present, BRICS politics appear significantly more intricate and compromising than we might imagine. Let's remind ourselves that neither Brazil, China, India, nor South Africa imposed sanctions against Russia after the start of its aggression in Ukraine. They didn't even overly concern themselves with humanitarian aid to Ukraine, let alone arming support. However, both China's special envoy and the president of South Africa visited Kyiv this year.
The discussion around the perspective of Russian President's participation in the 2023 BRICS summit increased the focus on this assembly. The International Criminal Court's issuance of an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin in March 2023 prevented his physical presence at the summit. The organizers of the Johannesburg meeting informed the Kremlin that they considered the order binding for South Africa, thereby causing a change in the head of the Russian delegation. Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, had to work both for himself and for his boss. Although Putin eventually participated in the summit through a video conference. Lavrov even had a meeting with the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, discussing his own version of the grain agreement renewal.
In his video address to the BRICS summit participants, Putin criticized the West's actions in global politics and used the term "global majority." Thus, Russia proposed its vision of the actual priorities of BRICS. It involves competition with the "golden billion" countries for resources and consolidating around those who dislike the dominance of the US and NATO in the modern world. This seems to be the real purpose of this organization's existence.
Likewise, Beijing seems to hold similar positions. It's unlikely that BRICS countries would have agreed to hold their next summit in Kazan, the capital of the Russian region of Tatarstan, if China didn't support this idea. Conducting the next BRICS summit in an expanded format in Russia, a country engaged in an aggressive war with its neighbor and facing an impressive array of sanctions from democratic countries, is both a signal and a challenge. It's a signal to the West that Russia isn't in isolation, even though it practices terrorism. Of course, the motives aren't solely about BRICS countries openly siding with the developed nations. There are substantial economic reasons: the billionaire countries, namely India and China, reap significant benefits from Russia's problems arising from sanctions against it. They obtain oil and gas with remarkable discounts during the Russian-Ukrainian war. It's all business – pure BRICS.
Expansion and Claims of Dominance
It's noteworthy that the announcement of a significant expansion of the organization came from South Africa, which joined BRICS in 2010. More than 20 countries have submitted applications for membership in recent years, but in the "expansion wave" set to take place on January 1, 2024, six nations will participate. Each of the new members vividly showcases the organization's activities. For instance, Iran's inclusion signifies an anti-Western orientation, Argentina's presence demonstrates BRICS' readiness to act more actively in South America, and Ethiopia and Egypt highlight the African perspective of BRICS. China actively operates on the African continent, and Russia employs intrigue through "Wagner Group" mercenaries and special services.
It's worth emphasizing that in Johannesburg, BRICS countries agreed on, but did not disclose, the principles of organizational expansion. It's important to note that the organization is approaching the point where it will unite countries representing half of the world's population.
Of particular significance is the entry of Iran, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, which together with Russia could not only fulfill the energy needs of their fellow BRICS members but also sway the oil market even more powerfully than OPEC did in its prime. Putin is promoting this idea almost as vigorously as his proposition to eliminate the dominance of the dollar in international transactions and trade. Exiting the perimeter of the dollar-dominated financial world might diminish the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, which it has faced due to the conflict in Ukraine.
Photo: "India 'fully supports the expansion' of the BRICS group," stated Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the second day of the BRICS Summit. Previously, India was criticized for lacking enthusiasm for BRICS expansion. Source: 15th BRICS Summit Flickr
The "de-dollarization" of the global economy, which Putin dreams of and other BRICS members don't necessarily oppose, remains an unsolved problem. The desire of Global South economies, especially Russia, to be less dependent on the Federal Reserve System and developed countries in general is understandable. However, the immaturity of financial systems in BRICS countries works against them, and the question of creating a common currency remains unresolved.
In the summit's concluding declaration, participants emphasized the necessity of peaceful solutions to global issues, expressed direct concerns about the West's use of sanctions, and called for the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue at the negotiation table. Such declarations seem insincere and cynical in light of the behavior of Russia and Iran, and Beijing's near-forceful attempts to annex Taiwan.
The situation appears quite ominous. Although BRICS has not yet acquired a clear structure, amid the weakness of the UN and potential seismic shifts in global politics, this organization could potentially undermine the global security system, especially if the more aggressive sentiments and ambitions of a bygone political era prevail. The resources for such attempts are present.
A Hint from Beijing
China's leader, Xi Jinping, unexpectedly skipped his planned speech at a key multinational business forum in South Africa on August 22. According to the summit schedule, Xi was supposed to attend the forum and address the audience alongside other leaders on that day. Instead, his prepared statement—with subtly veiled jabs at the United States, which have become a part of Xi's international remarks—was delivered by China's Minister of Trade, Wang Wentao (pictured). In the statement, Xi urged the world to avoid steps "into the abyss of a new Cold War."
Without directly mentioning the US, the statement referred to "a certain country obsessed with preserving its hegemony" that has done everything possible to paralyze developing markets and countries. Later, Xi participated in the summit's luncheon, but no reasons were given for his speech's absence.
According to analysts, this decision was likely made last-minute. They referenced a tweet by Hua Chunying, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Several hours after the event, the spokesperson tweeted that "Xi gave a speech at the closing ceremony of the BRICS Business Forum 2023," along with a photograph showing a packed conference hall. This intriguing turn of events remains unresolved for now.
Photo: Instead of China's leader, Xi Jinping, his prepared statement was unexpectedly announced by China's Minister of Trade, Wang Wentao (pictured). In the statement, Xi called on the world to avoid steps "into the abyss of a new Cold War." Source: 15th BRICS Summit Flickr