Ukraine Will Join NATO. When?

Only a few hours left before the summit in Vilnius but the amount of news with the NATO tag is off the charts. The results of the gathering of three dozen world leaders, which has been planned for months, are approaching their logical conclusion amid heated discussions. The consultations will continue until the final statement is signed, experts say. The decisions made on July 11-12 will be historic. Against the backdrop of the largest war on the European continent since World War II, the NATO summit aims to demonstrate the unity of the Western world against Russia. However, disputes over the accession of Ukraine and Sweden and the funding that national governments are expected to allocate to implement the Alliance's new strategy are casting a shadow over the unity of the North Atlantic bloc's partners.

Ukraine as a test of politicians' ability to protect the lives of voters

In 2008, world leaders decided to avoid tensions with Russia: no action plan for the NATO membership of Ukraine and Georgia was proposed. A few months later, Russia started a war in Georgia, occupying 20% of the country's territory. A few years later, in 2014, the Russian army invaded the Ukrainian territories of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In 2022, Russia launched ballistic missiles and hundreds of thousands of soldiers at peaceful Ukrainian cities in an attempt to seize power in Kyiv. Every day, the Russian army destroys Ukrainian infrastructure, causing tens of thousands of euros in damage, and daily killing Ukrainian citizens.

Have politicians and their voters realized that all of this became possible after the compromises of the Bucharest Summit? Is the bloc ready to avoid following the same scenario this time?

"We were laughed at, criticised and not heard. Now, when we meet leaders, [...] they complain and say that we were right. But why are we not being listened to now?" - said former President of Lithuania Dalia Grybauskaitė at the Vilnius University (VU) conference.

"European Response. The War in Ukraine and New Challenges. We have failed to deter Russia [...] from going to war. We are still failing to explain to the people what needs to be done. We are still failing to arm [Ukraine] so that they can strike back," the leader adds, emphasizing that the threat of Russia is now being underestimated again.

Cards on the table: what will be discussed in Vilnius?

The Gaze has already described the benefits the Alliance and EU citizens will gain from Ukraine's accession to NATO. It seems that the bloc itself is beginning to realize this.

On the eve of the 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, 23 countries of the bloc officially reaffirmed their position on supporting Ukraine's membership in NATO by signing declarations.

Feeling the threat to their own security, citizens of the bloc's member states are gradually forming their own position.

Thus, a recent poll commissioned by NATO in each of the 31 countries of the Alliance shows that the vast majority making up 64 percent of citizens consider Russia's war in Ukraine to be a negative factor affecting their security, and 65 percent of respondents approve of their countries' continued support for Ukraine.

Some NATO countries are convinced that Ukraine's membership in NATO is the only clear and understandable signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the invasion. Other members of the Alliance emphasize the impossibility of joining the ranks of the defense bloc for a country in which a war is taking place.

The Ukrainian side realizes the complexity of the discussion and does not insist on immediate accession to the Alliance. Instead, Kyiv proposes to avoid Bucharest's mistakes and emphasizes the need to fix a clear and understandable position of the Alliance on terms: when Ukraine can obtain actual membership. In an interview with CNN, Volodymyr Zelensky directly called on the American president to make history and finally officially invite Kyiv to join NATO.

However, the bloc's leaders, the United States and Germany, are hesitant. The extension of the contract of longtime NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg shows that the countries are still trying to strike an impossible balance between "non-interference" in the war and the inability to ignore its bloody consequences and the obvious threats Russia poses on the eastern border of the bloc.

Ukraine's place is in NATO. What will be the Summit's decisions on Ukraine?

Today, we are watching live one of the most heated global socio-political debates of the 21st century. The consequences of the decisions made in Vilnius will influence the agenda for decades to come and the lives of entire generations.

"At the Summit, we will make Ukraine even more stronger, and set out a vision for its future. I expect Allied leaders will agree a package with three elements, to bring Ukraine closer to NATO," said the NATO Secretary General in one of his statements on the eve of the Summit.

But what does this mean in practice?

While specific predictions are not a rewarding thing to make in a turbulent world, trends suggest that the Summit will adopt several key items:

• A new NATO Defense Strategy, which will provide for a radical overhaul of the Alliance's work to ensure the security of its members, in particular those on its eastern border. This includes an obvious militarization to counter Russia, terrorist threats, and potentially China. Additional military presence of the Bloc's forces will be deployed, amassing equipment and ammunition. New rules for the coordination, movement, and stay of NATO troops in allied countries will be approved and implemented.
• Security guarantees for Ukraine. According to media reports, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and the United States have been actively discussing the concept of a "security umbrella" for Ukraine with Kyiv and other NATO, EU, and G7 partners for several weeks. The idea is to coordinate efforts in a format that is effective for long-term and constructive support of Ukraine. The specific model is not yet clear, but The Gaze has previously analyzed the main provisions under discussion.
•  A multi-year program of assistance to Ukraine, in essence, a roadmap to ensure full interoperability between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO.
• Establishing the NATO-Ukraine Council, which is a renamed and somewhat enhanced version of the pre-existing Commission.
• A political document on Ukraine's membership in NATO, possibly with specific conditions and timelines.

Most analysts agree that the decision on Ukraine's accession to NATO has already been made and is positive. However, the devil, as always, is in the details. And it is these details that the participants of the Vilnius Summit will be discussing until the joint declaration is signed.

After all, it is quite obvious that the position, statements and backroom agreements of each of the Summit participants will go down in history. The decisions made in Vilnius will be scrutinized, analyzed and evaluated in terms of consequences and responsibility for their occurrence. The stakes are high and they have been made.

The policy of appeasement of the aggressor has repeatedly demonstrated its "bloody effectiveness" for the European continent and the whole world. Attempts not to provoke Hitler ended in World War II, while efforts to "not escalate" misunderstandings with Putin mobilized 150 million Russians for a war of aggression against a sovereign neighbor.

Perhaps this time, a complex political consensus will make it possible to find a solution that will give more chances to the thousands of people who are or may become victims of senseless violence legalized by Russia and the provocative inaction of the international community.