Ukrainians Lower Expectations on NATO as Security Guarantee, Survey Shows

Public opinion in Ukraine regarding security guarantees is gradually shifting from maximalist expectations toward more pragmatic models of state protection.

The Gaze reports on this, referring to a nationwide survey conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation.

Although NATO membership remains the preferred option for security guarantees among a relative majority of Ukrainians, support for it has significantly declined over the past year — from 55% to 38%. 

This decrease is not accompanied by a rise in support for a non-aligned status, but rather reflects doubts about the feasibility of rapid Euro-Atlantic integration amid a protracted war and mixed signals from international partners, particularly the United States.

Compared to last year, the share of respondents who favor bilateral agreements on strategic defense cooperation with individual NATO member states has noticeably increased, rising from 9% to 15%. Support for a neutral status with international security guarantees has also grown — from 12% to 16%. In other words, more Ukrainians are willing to consider neutrality not as a rejection of alliance guarantees, but as a security model that ensures international deterrence against potential aggression.

Additionally, the proportion of those who consider relying solely on Ukraine’s own defense capabilities, even without external guarantees, has risen from 3% to 7%.

The choice of a security model differs significantly by region. In western and central oblasts, support for NATO membership remains dominant, whereas in the south and east, respondents are more likely to choose neutral status with guarantees or are unable to determine the best option.

The strongest factor influencing preferences is belief in Ukraine’s victory. Among those who believe in victory, NATO remains the key reference point, while among skeptical respondents, support for alternative and less ambitious security models has grown substantially.

At the same time, support for Ukraine’s European integration path remains stable and high despite internal and external challenges. Even after a decline to 59% in 2025, the orientation toward the EU remains significantly higher than before the full-scale invasion, and this decrease should be viewed as a reflection of public fatigue and frustration over the slow pace of change.

As The Gaze reported earlier, three-quarters of Ukrainians view Russia’s peace plan as completely unacceptable with only 17% of respondents willing to accept Moscow’s version of a settlement.

Read more on The Gaze: EU Citizens See Ukraine War as the Union’s No. 1 Problem – Eurobarometer