Uprising in Niger? No, It's an Attack on Paris

Why Niger, and why now? The answer lies in the colossal deposits of strategically important natural resources and the Kremlin's desire to create asymmetric challenges for Western Europe amidst Russia's attack on NATO's eastern flank.

Despite Russia's military engagement in Ukraine, Moscow has not scaled back its ambitions in the Global South. Over the past year, Russia has doubled its focus on the African Sahel region. Why here? The Sahel is perhaps the most volatile part of the continent, and Moscow has leveraged the controversial private military company Wagner Group to penetrate countries like the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, and now Niger. In this region, Russia deftly exploits the West's policy mistakes, growing anti-European sentiments, and the fact that Western Europe is preoccupied with Russian threats closer to home.

As of the publication of this article, the first ten days have passed since the military coup in Niger. The government of President Mohamed Bazoum, elected democratically, was overthrown. The military intervened, claiming they aimed to prevent bloodshed and preserve "the welfare of our people."

The military announced that Bazoum had been detained by presidential security personnel on July 26. A military statement on July 27 also warned against foreign military intervention, which they said "risks having catastrophic and uncontrollable consequences." However, neighboring Nigeria almost immediately imposed sanctions, including cutting off electricity supply. Nigeria and other neighboring states have also been actively working to restore civilian rule in Niger.

The situation appears to be a revolt among former allies of Mahamadou Issoufou, who essentially brought Bazoum to power in 2021. However, Bazoum was not overly grateful to his political godfather's inner circle and sidelined several high-ranking individuals in both the military and the government. It seems that Mohamed Bazoum's actions were primarily aimed at consolidating his own influence.

But the pursuit of power is not the only driving force. After taking office, Bazoum strengthened military cooperation with France and the United States, curtailed the autonomy of the Nigerien army's command, and launched anti-corruption programs targeting the oil sector. These actions earned him many enemies.

The deadline for the restoration of civilian rule after the coup in Niger expired on Sunday, August 6. Thus, regional powers resisting transcontinental external influence are expected to take action if military leaders do not revert to the status quo. Despite the ultimatum, the West African bloc, known as ECOWAS, says it still prefers diplomatic efforts.

However, it seems the Nigerien junta has no plans to return to the status quo. The military remains in the game. The next steps are expected from G7 members.

Photo; Mohamed Bazoum Source: Bogdan Hoyaux, European Union

Sahel - Why Here?

The Sahel is a region in Africa that stretches across the continent from the Red Sea in the east to the Atlantic Ocean in the west. The region is located between the Sahara desert to the north and the Sudanian savanna to the south. Nonetheless, the Sahel is home to the largest population in Africa, including Nigeria with its 230 million inhabitants. Niger is also a population record holder for its growth rate, though its population is ten times smaller than that of its neighboring Nigeria.

Through the harsh, dry climate, this region faces almost constant food and water shortages. The situation worsens due to the rapidly growing population resulting from high birth rates in the area. Consequently, the countries in this region generally have low living standards and extremely low GDP per capita. For instance, Niger has a nominal GDP per capita of only $561, making it one of the poorest countries in the world and, at the same time, with the highest birth rate globally.

In addition to the strong influence of Russia in the region, there is also an impact from extremist groups like "Boko Haram," "Islamic State," and "Al-Qaeda." This makes the situation even more complicated. The region is like a tinderbox, and all it takes is a spark to set it ablaze.

Photo: Sahel Map. Source: The Gaze

Now, why specifically Niger?

As mentioned earlier, the country is one of the poorest in the world, but it holds vast reserves of natural resources. According to available estimates, Niger covers 15% of France's uranium needs through its uranium exports, supplying one-fifth of the EU's total uranium imports. The French state-owned company Orano, which is a major producer of nuclear fuel in France, still operates in Niger. However, it's worth noting who else is a key supplier of uranium to France and is significantly linked to Russia – neighboring Kazakhstan. And Russia too, of course!

An interesting chain emerges. If Niger were to stop uranium extraction and exports to France, it would lead to three bitter consequences.

First, an attack on Niger could result in Russia significantly increasing France's dependence on Russia for uranium supply, creating a strategic vulnerability for Paris. France's nuclear energy accounts for 68% of its electricity consumption, making it reliant on Moscow. French officials have tried to reassure the public that existing reserves would last for approximately two years to supply the 56 nuclear power units currently in operation

Second, it could lead to a surge in uranium prices due to the temporary disruption of supply chains, significantly boosting Russia's uranium export revenue, providing more money for Putin's military actions.

Third, the uranium market crisis, already felt amid the Niger coup, might hinder the implementation of sanctions against Russia, particularly in the mining and export of uranium. If France faces a uranium shortage, Paris will have to resist sanctioning Russian uranium.

Photo: The External view of the SOMAIR uranium plant, Arlit, Niger. Source: Maurice Ascani, Orano

And we haven't even mentioned other valuable minerals in Niger, like oil and gas. The country is sandwiched between powerful global players in the gas and oil markets, with Libya and Algeria to the north and Nigeria to the south, all of which have huge oil deposits.

The reason why oil and other well-known minerals still don't bring significant revenue to Niger is the deplorable state of the country's transport system. Compact uranium and some other metal ores still make sense to transport to the ports of neighboring Nigeria, even by road. Everything else becomes unprofitable.

And here's the dreadful cycle: there is not enough money for infrastructure development, but there's no opportunity to earn more money because there's no capacity to efficiently mine valuable minerals.

So, what to do in this case? The same thing Paris is doing right now in this volatile region. Supports real politicians and carefully exert pressure on old allies in the region, so they, in turn, pressure the self-proclaimed government of Niger.