Back in the USSR

Vladimir Putin, the Russian dictator, has embarked on a journey to locations reminiscent of Soviet glory. His trip to Pyongyang is a voyage into the past, into the times of Soviet grandeur. However, the flight to Vietnam turned out to be a misguided idea, as Hanoi has turned the page and is simply building a normal life. There is a bit of sentiment about the past in Vietnam, but they certainly do not aspire to resemble Kim Jong Un’s regime.

Putin travelled to East Asia, visiting Pyongyang first and then Hanoi. If viewed as a PR stunt, the sequence of this trip was not the best choice for him. However, this sequence is ideal for those whom Putin has declared his enemies. His prior visit to North Korea placed Hanoi in an extremely awkward position.

Alliance of Two Autocracies

Russia and North Korea signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in Pyongyang. This agreement includes mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the participants. This is essentially all that is known about its content. Vladimir Putin reported this key point of the agreement following negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, as announced by the Russian state news agency TASS: “The comprehensive partnership agreement signed today includes, among other things, mutual assistance in case of aggression against one of the participants in this agreement.”

This is a real revision of several previously existing agreements between Russia and North Korea: the 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, the 2000 Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness, and Cooperation, as well as the Pyongyang and Moscow Declarations signed in 2000 and 2001, respectively. The last time Putin visited North Korea was exactly 24 years ago when the 2000 treaty was signed.

It is worth mentioning two very interesting moments that characterise the atmosphere of the visit. Firstly, among the souvenirs Putin presented to the North Korean dictator was a Russian luxury limited-edition Aurus limousine, but the parade honouring the visit was reviewed by both leaders standing in a Mercedes-Benz limousine. Incidentally, the manufacturer of this car immediately announced that it does not supply vehicles to North Korea.

Secondly, the group of high-ranking Russian officials accompanying Putin on the visit was humiliatingly escorted out of the meeting room because they entered and took their seats before Kim Jong Un arrived. These were not just any figures – they included Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, recently appointed Defence Minister Andrey Belousov, First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Manturov, Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Savelyev, and several others, including the head of the state corporation Roscosmos, Yuri Borisov. But they were invited later.

The significance of Borisov’s presence is clear. One of the issues North Korea relies on Russia to resolve is access to space technologies, as the North Korean missile and space programme faces significant difficulties and numerous failures.

A video of this embarrassing incident was disseminated by the website of the popular Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda, which, like all major Russian media, is controlled by the Kremlin. This publication is quite humiliating for the Russian government delegation, yet it was released. The very occurrence of such an incident is highly significant, as it could not have been accidental in such a highly regulated and autocratic state as North Korea. Undoubtedly, both the conditions for the incident and the actions of the minor Korean officials were pre-agreed and carefully planned. This incident can certainly be seen as a gentle diplomatic slap to the Russian leader. Nevertheless, the agreement was signed.

Here are five key outcomes of the agreement:

• Russia is likely to continue receiving North Korean-manufactured ammunition for Soviet-era weapons, which are in short supply in Russia. Reportedly, Moscow has already received at least 10,000 containers of ammunition from Pyongyang, including large-calibre artillery shells and medium-range ballistic missiles.
• North Korea will likely receive food supplies from Russia, including those taken from occupied Ukrainian territories.
• North Korea may serve as a Russian proxy in Moscow's projects in the Far East.
• Russia has effectively assumed responsibility for all future actions by North Korea that violate international treaties and international law in general. It is worth noting that Pyongyang continues to develop and test nuclear and missile weapons in violation of international norms on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and missiles. The same applies to provocations along the demarcation line with South Korea.
• By signing this agreement, Russia has violated the sanctions regimes against North Korea, including UN sanctions for which Russia itself voted in the UN Security Council in 2013.

On the other hand, this agreement can be seen as the beginning of a broader Kremlin attack on sanctions policies against autocracies. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hinted at this: "We will continue to counter the practice of sanctions strangulation as an instrument the West is accustomed to using to maintain its hegemony in politics, the economy, and other areas."

"We plan to reconsider the issue of arms support to Ukraine," South Korea National Security Advisor Chang Ho-jin said on June 20, suggesting a shift in South Korea's policy of not providing lethal aid to Ukraine. By  Yonhap News Agency 

Cool Reception in Hanoi

Putin arrived in Hanoi on the morning of 20 June local time after a two-day visit to North Korea.

Vietnam is striving to develop rapidly and establish itself as an East Asian industrial tiger, increasingly competing in international markets not only with China but even with South Korea and Taiwan. Vietnam has a population of 100 million but a GDP per capita of only $4,200. As a result, the country is expanding its cooperation with the United States and recently gained a new powerful status as a trading partner – Comprehensive Strategic Partnership status. This is on par with the relationships Vietnam has with Russia, China, and several other countries.

In 2023, Vietnam exported goods worth $118.92 billion to the United States, while the US exported goods worth $9.79 billion to Vietnam in the same year. Thus, the trade turnover amounted to approximately $129 billion.

The US accounts for about a third of Vietnam's total exports, which amounted to $354.7 billion in 2023. Meanwhile, of the $326.4 billion total imports to Vietnam in 2023, imports from the US accounted for only about 3%.

It is noteworthy that Vietnam's total exports in 2023 decreased by 4.6% compared to 2022. Importantly, exports to premium markets in the US and the EU fell much more sharply – by 11.3% and 6.6%, respectively, compared to 2022. Exports to Japan fell by 3.8% and to South Korea by 3.3% over the year. Thus, Hanoi is very interested in restoring export volumes to these countries, especially to the US and the EU.

And what about Russia? The total trade turnover with Vietnam, i.e., exports plus imports, amounted to just over $3.6 billion in 2023. The scale of Vietnam's international trade with Russia is simply incomparable to that with developed countries.

Investments? Russia has invested in nearly 200 projects in Vietnam, but the total volume of these investments is not impressive – slightly less than $1 billion. An important component of economic cooperation is the development of the energy and oil sectors in Vietnam, primarily in oil and gas exploration not only on Vietnam's continental shelf. This includes the joint venture Vietsovpetro.

Photo: Putin was warmly welcomed right at the foot of his airplane's stairs at Hanoi airport. Source: kremlin.ru

Vladimir Putin's visit to Vietnam has placed the country in a difficult position following the outcomes and atmosphere of his trip to Pyongyang. Most prominent experts on East Asian affairs did not expect any breakthroughs from this visit. However, Vietnam is unlikely to abandon its long-standing relationship with Russia, which holds a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. It is worth recalling that Russia is the successor to the USSR, which provided Vietnam with extensive financial and military-technical support during the war in the 1960s and 1970s. To this day, Vietnam's armed forces are predominantly equipped with Soviet-era, now Russian-made, weaponry.

Vietnam has tried to maintain a neutral stance regarding the war in Ukraine. However, Putin’s visit, especially after his trip to Pyongyang, may undermine this neutrality. This would be highly undesirable given Hanoi's interest in trade relations with the US and other developed countries.

Washington has sharply criticised Putin's visit to Vietnam. "No country should give Putin a platform to promote his aggressive war and otherwise allow him to normalise his atrocities," a spokesperson for the US embassy in Hanoi told Reuters on 17 June. "If he can travel freely, it may normalise Russia's blatant violations of international law," he added, referring to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The President of Socialist Vietnam, To Lam, welcomed Putin in Hanoi following his re-election as president. To Lam also praised the comprehensive strategic partnership with Moscow and promised to strengthen ties, though this seemed more like a diplomatic routine than genuine intent.

Besides meeting with the President of Vietnam, Putin also met with the General Secretary of the Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong, and other officials. Putin last visited Vietnam in 2017, but at that time, Russia had not faced the extensive sanctions imposed following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Additionally, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for war crimes after 2022.

As this article was being prepared for publication, it was reported that Putin's hour-and-a-half talks with President To Lam ended with only ritual assurances of mutual respect. "Vietnam always regards Russia as one of its priorities in foreign policy. We wish to develop traditionally friendly relations with Russia, which have been built over many generations by the leaders of our two countries," To Lam stated at a concluding press conference after the talks. This was reported by the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.

To Lam also added that Moscow and Hanoi agreed not to enter alliances aimed against each other. Putin, in turn, expressed gratitude for the warm reception: "When I say warm, I mean not only the temperature on the street but also the hospitality with which - as we can see - the residents of Hanoi greet our delegation on the streets. I want to convey my sincerest greetings and best wishes to them." And there was nothing more specific.