Baltic Nations Prepare for War with Russia

Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia are proactively preparing for new challenges posed by the Russian threat on NATO’s northeastern flank. Examining their efforts closely, it appears that these four nations are moving in near-synchronisation in four key areas: increasing their defence funding, securing funding from EU joint resources, strengthening air defences, and bolstering the stability of their eastern land and sea borders. It’s no surprise that these nations are significantly more concerned about overall European security than their continental neighbours, as they currently face threats and even hybrid attacks from Russia.

On 27 September, the defence ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Polish Deputy Defence Minister Stanisław Wziątek held a working meeting in the Latvian city of Daugavpils. They discussed real threats from Russia, including violations of NATO airspace by Russian missiles and drones.

These violations occurred in southeastern Poland, where Russian cruise missiles entered Polish airspace. In northeastern Romania, Russian kamikaze drones, used to attack Ukraine's Odesa region, entered Romanian airspace. Furthermore, a recent incident saw a Russian armed drone entering Latvian airspace from Belarus. Latvia is currently investigating this incident.

It is important to note that in none of these cases were attempts made to intercept the dangerous intruders, even though Polish and Romanian fighter jets are on patrol in case of an air invasion threat. Additionally, Ukraine and Poland signed a security agreement that allows for the interception of missiles and drones in Ukrainian airspace if there is a threat to Polish territory. Since this agreement was signed in July 2024, there have been no such incidents.

Photo: Lithuanian Defence Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas (centre left) and Ukraine's Ambassador to Lithuania Petro Beshta (centre right) discuss continued support for Ukraine, including a €19 million aid package provided in September. Future plans, including enhanced support for Ukraine’s defence industry and assistance as part of the Demining Coalition, were also outlined. Source: X (formerly Twitter) Lithuanian Ministry of Defence.

A Joint Air Patrol is Needed

Although no public statements were made regarding the strengthening of air defence systems in the Baltic States and Poland following the meeting in Daugavpils, this appears to be the most urgent area of focus, considering the ongoing war in Ukraine. Every night, Russian forces conduct combined attacks in Ukraine using kamikaze drones, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles.

Typically, Russian forces use several dozen kamikaze drones and up to ten missiles against Ukraine daily. Ukrainian cities near the front lines are attacked daily by dozens of guided glide bombs, launched by Russian aircraft from distances of up to 70-80 kilometres. In the event of a massive bombardment, the number of aerial weapons used has reached nearly 200.

These figures likely shape the assessment of NATO’s northeastern countries’ air defence needs. This is not the first time that strengthening air defences on NATO’s eastern flank has been discussed. A previous meeting took place just a week ago in Bucharest, where nine NATO defence ministers met.

But as part of this event, a four-way meeting of representatives from Romania, Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania also took place at Latvia's initiative. They discussed recent violations of NATO airspace by Russian drones. Following that meeting, the defence ministers of these four countries prepared and signed a statement outlining the steps needed to enhance air defence both nationally and collectively.

This time, on 27 September, the Baltic defence ministers called for expanded NATO patrol missions to better protect the region from future aerial threats. They also emphasised the need to strengthen the region's air defences overall.

Photo: German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius presents the defence cooperation agreement in the Lithuanian Seimas. Source: X (formerly Twitter) Lithuanian Ministry of Defence.

Hybrid Attacks Continue

The defence ministers of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Polish Deputy Defence Minister did not choose Daugavpils as the meeting site by chance—it lies just 18 kilometres from the Latvian-Belarusian border. They visited the Silene border crossing, which Latvia had to close due to hybrid attacks involving illegal migrants attempting to cross the border. The area is now reinforced with anti-tank obstacles and other security measures.

In posts on their X (formerly Twitter) accounts, the Latvian Ministry of Defence announced, "Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland are working to secure additional EU funding to strengthen the defence of the EU/NATO Eastern border." The Lithuanian Ministry of Defence made a similar statement on X (formerly Twitter): "Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland are working to secure additional EU funding to strengthen the defence of the EU/NATO Eastern border. Defence Ministers met in Daugavpils today to emphasise the need for NATO and EU focus on our joint countermobility initiative."

These four countries are not only calling for security efforts to be funded but are already implementing their own projects under the Baltic Defence Line initiative, which aims to enhance the physical security of the borders between these nations and Russia and Belarus.

As part of the Baltic Defence Line, Lithuania has previously mined critical infrastructure, including bridges. Latvia has installed concrete anti-tank barriers along the border. Estonia is building underground bunkers, and Poland has deployed additional military forces to its eastern border. During negotiations, all four participants expressed the need to significantly intensify these activities, which is currently underway.

In addition to collective efforts, individual Baltic countries are strengthening bilateral ties with more western NATO members. On 26 September, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius presented the Lithuanian-German defence cooperation agreement in the Lithuanian Seimas (parliament), which establishes the legal framework for the permanent presence of a German brigade in Lithuania.

An additional focus of the Baltic nations’ security efforts is military aid to Ukraine, including equipment, weapons, and ammunition. It is likely that representatives of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia will give special attention to this area during the next meeting in the Ramstein format, scheduled for 12 October.