Black Swan for Putin

The armed suppression of opposition in Syria, hybrid interference in elections in Moldova, Georgia, and Romania, attacks on undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea, support for terrorist movements in Lebanon and Gaza, provision of military technologies to autocratic regimes, obstruction of free navigation in the Black and Red Seas, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and nuclear blackmail directed at its partners – these are just a few dubious accomplishments of the Russian regime across various regions of the world in recent years. Such actions could not go unanswered. The first response came from Ukraine, which thwarted Putin’s February 2022 attempt to "take Kyiv in three days." Now, resistance to Russian expansion is being mounted by citizens of Georgia and Syria. This resistance arises not only because these two countries have reached the brink of desperation but also because even the abundant flow of Russian petrodollars cannot fund the Kremlin's numerous destabilising operations against global security. It seems that the attacks by Syrian rebels on the hereditary dictator Bashar al-Assad might turn into a "black swan" event for the Kremlin.

Desperate attacks by opposition forces on Aleppo, Syria's largest city, appear to be yielding success. This is despite the fact that Assad's forces are using aviation, supported by Russian warplanes. Official Syrian sources report thousands of rebel casualties and downed drones, but the only seemingly accurate detail in these accounts is that the rebels are deploying cutting-edge technological means in their assaults.

A Cosy Little Dictatorship Inherited

Bashar al-Assad has been attempting to suppress insurgents in the northwest of the country since 2011. That year saw the eruption of fierce protests against the dynastic rule of Assad, who has governed since 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad. The elder Assad had ruled Syria since 1971 with unwavering support from the Soviet Union.

From the early 1970s, Syria played a pivotal role in controlling oil supply routes from Gulf states to the Mediterranean coast. Hafez Assad's tenure is closely linked to the support of terrorist movements, which fuelled Lebanon's prolonged civil war and relentless attacks on Israel.

After the Soviet Union collapsed, Hafez Assad scaled back his activities somewhat, but his death, Bashar’s rise to power, and a surge in Russian oil revenues in the early-to-mid 2000s revived Damascus's disruptive influence in the Middle East. The 2011 Arab Spring could have ended this, but covert and later overt Kremlin intervention preserved Bashar al-Assad's dictatorship in Damascus.

Initially, Assad sought to crush the rebellion with his own forces, but the insurgents quickly armed themselves and began targeting government troops. Some rebel groups even received weapons from NATO countries and Gulf states. Meanwhile, Moscow and Tehran actively supported Assad, initially with arms. After rebel victories west of Aleppo, near Idlib, and in the east near Raqqa, Russia directly intervened in Syria, joining the war on Assad’s side.

The tragedy of this war lies in its lack of a clear divide between positive forces opposing the dictator. Numerous rebel groups, including Kurdish forces, became embroiled in the conflict, as did the Islamic State (IS) and, later, the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from 2017 onwards.

While both the US and Russia fought against IS in 2014–2016, the rise of IS and the need to counter its terrorist activities even beyond the Middle East provided Russia with leverage to intensify its involvement in Syria’s civil war. Russia deployed the Khmeimim airbase and a naval base in Tartus on Syria's western coast. However, Russian forces primarily targeted Syrian opposition groups rather than focusing on defeating IS or similar factions.

Migrant Crisis as a Weapon

Between 2015 and 2016, Russia's actions in Syria triggered an artificial migrant crisis in Western Europe. The Kremlin conducted disproportionate strikes on civilian infrastructure and cities that served as opposition strongholds. This led to significant civilian casualties and the migration of millions of Syrians to Western Europe, mostly men. Meanwhile, other refugees – women, children, and the elderly – largely settled in camps in Lebanon.

Moscow used this migrant crisis as a hybrid tool against Western Europe, attempting to soften the EU's stance on Crimea's annexation and the establishment of Russian proxy regimes in eastern Ukraine. This strategy largely succeeded.

Turkey’s Stake

Turkey is another key player in this multilayered conflict. The Syrian civil war involves Kurdish forces and extremist organisations that threaten the stability of Turkey’s eastern provinces. Ankara has supported certain rebel factions operating along the Syrian-Turkish border, placing it at odds with Moscow.

This rivalry led to ceasefire negotiations in 2020. However, as seen in early winter 2024, fighting has resumed. It is possible that Ankara has subtly encouraged the rebels, bolstering them to address regional stability issues, including potentially ousting Russian forces from the area.

The latest escalation in Syria is likely due to Moscow's deep entanglement in Ukraine, which prevents it from allocating the same level of resources, funds, and weaponry to support Assad as before. Many parties are eager to see Assad removed.

Bashar al-Assad is among the world’s most notorious dictators, brutally suppressing opposition, facilitating terrorist attacks on Israel, fuelling Lebanon's civil war, hosting Russian military assets in the eastern Mediterranean, exerting pressure on NATO’s eastern flank, and supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. These dubious achievements make Assad a key figure in the global "axis of evil" formed by the Kremlin alongside Pyongyang, Tehran, and Beijing.

On 1 December, unconfirmed Russian sources reported the dismissal of General Sergey Kisel, head of Russia’s military contingent in Syria. This could indirectly indicate significant successes by the armed Syrian opposition. Events are unfolding rapidly, with numerous actors involved, not all of whom are heroes with spotless reputations. However, few world capitals are likely to mourn Assad’s fate.