Hot Cold Days on the Frontline in Ukraine
Intense fighting in southern Donetsk, mass displays of Russian strategic aviation following a conversation between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and rumours of Ukraine being pressured into territorial concessions — this is the face of the ongoing war in Eastern Europe. However, there is more to the story. Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary still rely on Russian gas supplies. Meanwhile, Russian oil continues to be exported with price cap violations. In the early hours of 10 November, the Russians launched a record-breaking drone assault on Ukraine, with a total of 145 attack UAVs detected in the air.
The event on the morning of 11 November above the Caspian Sea and Russia’s steppe regions was not just psychological warfare; it was mental warfare. Thirteen heavy strategic Tu-95M bombers simulated missile launches over the Caspian, a route they typically use to launch Kh-101 missiles. These are the same missiles that struck the Kyiv Central Mother and Child Hospital on 8 July 2024, each carrying a 400 kg warhead. In addition, six MiG-31K fighters, armed with hypersonic "Kinzhal" missiles, were also in the air.
Ukrainian commanders speculated that this could lead to a genuine mass assault, given the ongoing nightly drone attacks targeting civilian infrastructure and energy facilities. On the night of 10–11 November, Russian forces launched 74 heavy strike drones. So the state energy company Ukrenergo instituted short-term emergency power cuts early in the day to help preserve the energy system's integrity in the event of an actual missile attack, as previous Russian strikes have specifically targeted power stations and transformer substations.
This show of strength with Tu-95 bombers seemed like an attempt by Putin to test the resolve of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump before his official inauguration on 20 January 2025. Although Trump’s current role is unofficial, these interactions are crucial.
All this unfolds as winter rapidly approaches. Similar attacks in 2022 resulted in regular power outages, as they did in the spring of this year. In this context, Kyiv has been appealing to its partners for more air defence systems while developing its own methods to counter Russian strike drones. At the same time, Ukraine continues to transit Russian gas and oil to Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, and, partially, the Czech Republic.
However, more troubling than the seasonal cold is the brutal escalation of fighting in Eastern Ukraine. These battles rarely make it to television screens because this is a war like no other. The reality is starkly captured in video footage from FPV drone operators, who have turned drones into 21st-century weapons. Panoramic photos of utterly destroyed cities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions reveal the scale of the tragedy. Despite its losses, the Russian army advances, leaving a scorched earth in its wake.
Bloody Oil
More and more Ukrainians are asking why Russian oil and gas are still being transported through Ukraine’s pipelines. This transit earns billions for Russia’s state budget — funds used to kill Ukrainians and destroy power stations and homes. Kyiv has made repeated efforts to end this, but so far, it has been unsuccessful. Vienna, Budapest, and Bratislava insist on maintaining Russian oil and gas supplies, as they come at a relatively low cost. Whenever Kyiv has demanded increased sanctions against Russian suppliers, it has encountered difficulties in Brussels, often stirred up by Vienna, Budapest, or Bratislava.
The amount of oil transported through Ukraine is dwarfed by Russia's semi-piratical export schemes at sea using its shadow fleet. Nonetheless, around 1.1 million tonnes of Russian oil, or approximately 250,000 barrels per day, reach Western Europe monthly via pipelines through Ukraine. Just under a million tonnes flow into Slovakia and Hungary, with the remainder going to the Czech Republic.
In July 2024, Ukraine imposed sanctions on the Russian company Lukoil, blocking its oil from being transported through Ukrainian pipelines. However, Hungary has since entered agreements with Azerbaijani suppliers. Now, Azerbaijani oil is being transported along a strangely long route, despite a more direct path by sea to Croatia and then by pipeline.
A similar story surrounds natural gas: in December, the transit agreement allowing Russian gas to pass through Ukraine en route to Western Europe is set to expire. Vienna, Bratislava, and Budapest are lobbying for the continuation of this transit, claiming it is Azerbaijani gas. However, Azerbaijan lacks the capacity to export the volumes currently flowing through Ukraine to Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary.
Meanwhile, European traders are searching for reliable weather forecasts for December–February in Western Europe. If Kyiv succeeds in halting the transit of Russian fuel through Ukraine, spot gas prices may be affected. Vienna, Budapest, and Bratislava were counting on Russian gas — gas tainted with the blood of Ukrainians — to come through again, rather than preparing for the possibility of halting Russian oil and gas supplies altogether.
Photo: Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs (right), visited a drone production facility in Kyiv with Ukraine's Minister of Strategic Industries, Herman Smetanin. Source: Josep Borrell X (formerly Twitter).
“Produce More Drones, and We’ll Provide the Funds”
Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, during his visit to Kyiv:
«Visited today with Minister Herman Smetanin a drone factory.
Hugely impressed by Ukraine’s innovation capacity & entrepreneurship.
The EU has already made €400 million from revenues of Russian frozen assets available to support Ukraine‘s defence industry.
More is to come».
Weapons? We’re Making Our Own, but We Still Need Yours
Ukrainians have not been idle, with the country launching an impressive programme to produce drones, armoured vehicles, and ammunition.
Every week, new reports emerge of fresh arms production projects being established in Ukraine. Some of these programmes are partially funded by frozen Russian state assets held abroad. Yet, Ukrainian forces are pleading, "Send more," as Russian generals continue to send their troops into battle as if they were in a video game, heedless of the thousands of soldiers left dead in Ukrainian fields. For nearly two months, confirmed Russian casualties have consistently exceeded 1,500–1,600 killed and wounded daily.
“More than 800 (Ukrainian) enterprises are now involved in producing weapons for our Defence and Security Forces,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a video address.
On 11 November, Ukraine's Ministry of Strategic Industries presented defence representatives with new drones, which may soon replace civilian DJI Mavic drones on the front line. Meanwhile, compact FPV drones, employed as tactical strike weapons, are already being delivered to defence forces by the hundreds of thousands from a wide range of local manufacturers.
Putin is playing a high-stakes game, driven by Russia’s deteriorating financial situation. He is attempting to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible to leverage these gains in future peace negotiations, demanding recognition of the territories he has taken. In Russian, this is called "establishing the dividing line according to realities on the ground." In plain terms, it means "we stole these territories; let us keep them."
President-elect Trump’s intentions to swiftly bring an end to the war are, of course, respected. However, these intentions are somewhat perplexing to experts familiar with the complex dynamics of this war. At any negotiation table where Trump meets Putin, there will likely be an “Invisible Man” present from Beijing. Moreover, as highlighted by recent media coverage of Trump’s conversation with Putin, it appears that the Russian president selectively ignores statements he finds unfavourable.
Meanwhile, European leaders are gaining a clearer understanding of the situation. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have publicly announced their intention to meet, aiming to persuade U.S. President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets deep within Russia.
Kyiv has been requesting permission to strike military airfields, logistics hubs, and missile launch sites for almost two years. European and American partners have been reluctant to allow attacks with their weapons on Russian territory, citing escalation risks. However, Putin seems entirely unafraid of escalating the conflict.