Germany Turns Rightward

The crisis within Germany’s ruling coalition appears to have accelerated following the recent US elections. While this may be a factor, it is neither the sole nor the primary cause. The weakened policies of Olaf Scholz’s government had only just begun to show resilience, yet could not keep pace with global turbulence. As a result, Scholz’s coalition, known as the "traffic light" due to the colours of its member parties, has fractured. This has set the stage for an expedited electoral campaign, with controversial prospects influenced by recent local election outcomes. Notably, far-right groups gained significant ground in several federal states, while coalition members suffered substantial losses.

Only a month ago, Germany celebrated the 34th anniversary of reunification. Outwardly, the event was bright and ambitious, yet behind the scenes, signs of economic stagnation, surging support for far-right political groups, and hybrid threats from Russia loomed. The German economy is heavily impacted by aggressive exports of Chinese goods, especially the subsidised influx of Chinese cars, which threatens German workers and businesses. Germany is currently experiencing perhaps the poorest economic indicators among EU countries, with GDP projected to decline by 0.2% by the end of this year.

The first political blow for the “traffic light” coalition—comprising the Social Democratic Party (SPD - “red”), the Free Democratic Party (FDP - “yellow”), and the Greens (“green”)—came with the European Parliament elections in June. These results revealed voter dissatisfaction, particularly among farmers, over the swift pace of the “green transition,” which weakened the Greens' position. The left-leaning coalition’s lenient stance on illegal migration cost them numerous seats in the European Parliament, which was less a warning bell than an outright alarm.

The second adverse sign came with the local elections in Saxony and Thuringia in September. The coalition secured only 12.4% of the vote across the three member parties, and just 10.4% in Thuringia. Meanwhile, in Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained 31.9%, up from 27.5% in 2019, and the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) garnered 30.6%, down slightly from 32.1% in 2019. In Thuringia, the far-right AfD increased its share from 23.4% in 2019 to 32.8%, while CDU/CSU saw a reduction from 23.6% in 2019 to 21.7% in September 2024. Impressively, the ultra-left BSW party participated for the first time, achieving nearly the same level of support as all coalition parties combined.

Thus, the current coalition crisis is only tangentially related to the US election results. Instead, the “traffic light” coalition's three-year track record is marred by numerous missteps. The most pressing issues facing Olaf Scholz’s government include the migrant crisis, excessive pace of the green transition, insufficient defence of German industry’s economic interests, and an inconsistent stance on Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine.

Of these, the inconsistency on the Ukraine issue stands out starkly. Kyiv has expressed ongoing gratitude for Germany’s refuge for Ukrainian citizens fleeing war, as well as for financial aid and certain arms supplies, all of which have supported Ukraine’s resistance. However, this falls short in terms of countering Russia’s threat to both Ukraine and Western Europe.

Ukrainian military requests for weapons that could decisively shift the war’s trajectory in its favour remain unanswered. "Too little, too late" is the most tactful way to express the sentiment of those on the front lines, defending both Ukraine and Western Europe from Russian advances. 

The next German government will inevitably face a demand for security responses.

The concluding blow to the “traffic light” government appears to have come from a fiery speech by CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz, head of the right-wing opposition in the Bundestag, during parliamentary debates on 13 November. Merz essentially announced a pre-election agenda focusing on three key points:

• If his party leads the next coalition, it will form a “stable and effective government.”
• A new government would “restore control over immigration,” with undocumented migrants turned back at the border.
• The primary aim of the new administration would be to “revive the international competitiveness of our economy.”

This reflects what German voters expect—and what they seemingly have not received from the “traffic light” coalition. But where does Donald Trump, elected a week ago as US president, come into this? It’s unlikely that the issue stems from Scholz’s tenure as mayor of Hamburg in 2017, when Trump attended the G20 summit amid anti-globalisation riots that troubled attendees. Merz sarcastically recalled this incident, saying, “Donald Trump knows your name from the G20 summit in Hamburg, which you so brilliantly organised.” However, this is merely political rhetoric, not a genuine concern about any potential misunderstanding between Washington and Berlin, the latter being Washington's main ally in continental Europe.

The current crisis in the German government is a product of widespread voter dissatisfaction with policies spanning multiple issues, stretching beyond even the last three years to the Merkel era. Voters appear to crave greater clarity, pragmatism, and enhanced security measures against Russia’s threat. They see the US rightward shift as a model, a tougher stance on national interests and a firm response to external threats. It seems democratic nations are collectively moving towards a firmer stance, pivoting rightwards.

Whether this sentiment holds true for Germany will become clear on 23 February 2025, the date set for Bundestag elections, though a confidence vote procedure is scheduled for mid-December. It seems likely that the “traffic light” coalition may not withstand this hurdle - confidence vote procedure, prompting federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to call an election in accordance with the German Constitution.