Populists Attack Germany

The results of local elections in two eastern states of Germany have unsettled the federal government and top political parties. This is particularly concerning as federal elections to the Bundestag are scheduled for next year, and the outcomes in Thuringia and Saxony indicate a strong advance of radicals on both the far-right and far-left. Of particular alarm is the striking debut of the newly formed far-left BSW party. Many view the 1 September election results as an anomaly linked to the legacy of the pro-Soviet regime in the former GDR. Thuringia and Saxony were part of the GDR before the reunification of Germany in 1990. However, the situation is more complex, and there are legitimate concerns, especially due to the significant influence of the Kremlin on radical political forces in EU countries.

A brief summary of the elections in eastern Germany — in Saxony and Thuringia — reflects a continuation of the trend that emerged during the European Parliament elections in early June this year. Although there had been earlier signs, such as the unexpected victory of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) in the Dutch parliamentary elections in November 2023.

The elections in Thuringia and Saxony show the same trend – far-left and far-right parties are siphoning off votes from more moderate, centrist parties. Specifically, in Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 31.9%, up from 27.5% in 2019. This time, it overtook the CDU/CSU, which saw its vote share drop from 32.1% in the previous election to 30.6%. Part of this shift was due to a transfer of votes from the CDU/CSU to AfD, and partly due to increased participation by far-right voters. Thus, AfD took first place in terms of votes, CDU/CSU came second, and the far-left BSW, which contested the elections for the first time, came third with 11.8%.

In Thuringia, the far-right AfD secured 32.8%, up from 23.4% in 2019. CDU/CSU's popularity in this state also declined, dropping from 23.6% in 2019 to 21.7% in September this year. The far-left BSW also took third place here with 15.8%.

This is surprising even considering the remarkable success AfD showed in the European Parliament elections in June when it won 15 out of Germany's 96 seats in the European Parliament, accounting for 15.9% of the vote and securing second place after the most popular CDU/CSU party, which gained 30%. The rise of far-right influence and the surge of far-left power is alarming. Even the fact that the ruling coalition is a "traffic light" alliance – a coalition of three distinct political forces – the Greens (green party colour), FDP (Free Democratic Party, yellow), and SPD (Social Democratic Party, red) – doesn't ease concerns. This coalition formed the government after the 2021 elections, with Olaf Scholz elected as Chancellor.

In the 2024 Saxony local elections, the "traffic light" coalition collectively garnered just 12.4% of the vote for its three participating parties, while in Thuringia, it managed only 10.4%. These two eastern states are certainly a source of concern for Olaf Scholz. What spares the ruling coalition from despair is the fact that these two states are relatively sparsely populated, accounting for only about 7.3% of Germany's population. In contrast, each of the largest western German states – North Rhine-Westphalia, Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, and Lower Saxony – have populations significantly larger than Saxony or Thuringia.

One more hope for the current government is that the extremes tend not to cooperate well. In both Thuringia and Saxony, AfD is unable to form a state government on its own, so it would need partners. However, neither the respectable CDU/CSU, the "traffic light" coalition, nor even the far-left BSW are willing to cooperate with AfD. Nevertheless, the far-right party can block laws that require a two-thirds majority, such as the appointment of judges.

What AfD Wants

The AfD party was founded 11 years ago in response to dissatisfaction with the cost of supporting Greece under EU programmes following the global financial crisis of 2007-2011. Its popularity surged in 2015-2016 due to protests against migration from the Middle East, which was triggered by Russia's actions in Syria and other countries in the region. Its policies are highly populist, which has earned it 77 seats in the Bundestag (the German parliament) out of a total of 733 seats. It is currently the fifth-largest party in the Bundestag. Recent national opinion polls indicate that AfD enjoys support at around 18%, higher than the Social Democratic Party, which represents Scholz. AfD's highest levels of support are found in the eastern states.

Among the key positions of AfD are the following:

• Euroscepticism, including the rejection of the euro.
• Halting the "green transition" and abandoning the stated pace of renewable energy development.
• Anti-immigration policies.
• Lifting of Sanctions Against Russia Imposed Due to Its Unprovoked Invasion of Ukraine.

What BSW Wants

The BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) party is a newcomer, founded in January 2024 by former journalist and communist politician Sahra Wagenknecht after distancing herself from the other far-left party Die Linke. Wagenknecht represented Die Linke in the Bundestag from 2009 to 2023, including serving as co-chair of the party faction. The 55-year-old Wagenknecht was born in East Germany, in the city of Jena. Her mother is German, and her father is of Iranian descent. She was educated in the socialist, pro-Soviet GDR and was a member of the communist Free German Youth (FDJ) organisation.

In fact, BSW's ideology is close to national socialism, a mix of communist and nationalist views, surprisingly enough. In many respects, BSW is aligned with AfD, particularly in:

• Anti-immigration policies.
• Lifting of Sanctions Against Russia Imposed Due to Its Unprovoked Invasion of Ukraine.

However, BSW has some positions unique to itself:

• Anti-American and anti-NATO sentiments.
• Expanding social benefits and entitlements.