Poland Reloads Government with Strong Prospects
Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his new government are embarking on their work with both tremendous opportunities and equally formidable challenges. The funds are there and more will come. Support from allies within the ruling coalition in parliament is also present and with a certain reserve of strength. Inherited from Tusk's predecessors are disputes with Brussels regarding the independence of the judiciary. Additionally, he will have to address certain differences in views with Kyiv on Ukrainian agricultural exports and Ukrainian truckers. But, it seems Tusk has every chance of coping.
Just-appointed Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, is set to meet with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in Brussels on December 15. The return from Brussels is expected to be powerful for the head of the government, as Tusk will receive confirmation of €5.1 billion payments from the amended National Reconstruction Plan (KPO). This is a strong start and robust support for Poland's new government, where the opposition has managed to form a coalition, unlike PiS (Law and Justice), which controlled the government since 2015 and still has its representative as the country's president.
It's worth considering that Poland is expected to receive almost €60 billion from KPO, of which over €25 billion will be in the form of non-repayable grants. These funds will come through the RePowerEu programme, which involves investments in green technologies and a shift away from the use of fossil fuels. For Poland, reducing the consumption of fossil fuels is a sensitive issue, as the country has a significant share of thermal power stations running on local coal and a considerable number of jobs in the coal mining industry. Thus, ahead are the modernization of power plants and the retraining of tens of thousands of workers, a significant undertaking for Poland.
Another serious challenge is meeting one of the conditions for further funds within KPO, which is the restoration and strengthening of the independence of the Polish judicial system. Brussels had significant objections to the previous government regarding this issue. However, in addressing this problem, Tusk will have to coordinate actions with President Andrzej Duda, who represents PiS, in reality.
The Premier's Return
Donald Tusk addressed the Sejm (Polish parliament) on December 12. The Sejm had elected him as prime minister with 248 votes in favour and 201 against. Later that day, the parliament expressed a vote of confidence in the government of Donald Tusk. These figures indicate sufficient strength for Tusk's government and the legislative projects he will propose. However, this is now when there are no disputes within the ruling coalition of former opposition members. Later, Tusk will have to navigate between his party members and representatives of other coalition parties in the Sejm, but we'll delve into this coalition diversity a bit later.
Tusk has a very powerful political background; for example, from 2007 to 2014, he was already the prime minister of Poland, and from 2014 to 2019, he held the position of the President of the European Council. Donald Tusk is very popular in Poland, especially in major cities. He has a good relationship with the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, who is a fellow party member.
However, Tusk faces numerous challenges related to both internal issues and the significant external threat posed by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Poland has to prepare for a possible direct invasion. This not only increases security expenses but also elevates social tension in one way or another. Moreover, Poland puts in considerable efforts as the closest and most powerful neighbour of Ukraine in the west. Poland also provides logistical and other capabilities to support Ukraine and hosts a significant number of temporarily displaced Ukrainian women and children fleeing the war.
Tusk Coalition Takes the Helm
Donald Tusk's journey to the position of head of government was quite lengthy. After the parliamentary elections in Poland in October, he had to wait almost two months until Mateusz Morawiecki's government from PiS exhausted all possibilities. The issue for Tusk's predecessor was that, although PiS received the most votes in the elections, it lacked the seats in both chambers of parliament for a majority. So, PiS couldn't form a coalition majority. Opposition managed to form a coalition headed the Civic Coalition (KO) with three political forces, such as "Poland 2050" led by Szymon Hołownia (Polska 2050 Szymona Hołowni, PL2050), the Polish People's Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, PSL), and the New Left (Nowa Lewica, NL).
KO itself is considered a centrist political alliance, comprising several centre-left and centre-right parties and movements. PL2050 is a centrist party in terms of views, created only 2 years ago but quite ambitious and modern. The Polish People's Party is perhaps the oldest active party in Poland, dating back to the late 19th century. It is usually characterized as an agrarian political party with more socially conservative voters than KO. Interestingly, the Polish People's Party competes with PiS for voter sympathies in rural areas. The New Left is a social-democratic party that holds a centre-left position. Thus, the spectrum of the ruling coalition is indeed quite broad. From a political spectrum perspective, certain segments of the former opposition intersect with PiS.
Where both the current ruling coalition and PiS align significantly is the question of their stance on Russia and its invasion of Ukraine. There are no differences in this regard, except perhaps in technical details. PiS, however, criticized Donald Tusk during the election campaign for what they considered too generous actions toward Russian Gazprom and the reduction of Polish armed forces during his tenure as prime minister. Nevertheless, Tusk actively contributed to the defense of Ukraine's interests in the EU during his time as the President of the European Council.
PHOTO: The new Polish government has a lot of challenges. Firstly, from the outside as a result of the war started by Russia. Second, from within, both economic and political. But most importantly, after a long break, the Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) is returning to power in the form of the Obywatelska Coalition. Many members of the ruling majority - yesterday's opposition - are also on board. Source: Platforma Obywatelska
Who's on Board
The second person in the government is Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. He is appointed deputy prime minister and defence minister of Poland. This is a quite significant combination of positions at the moment. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz led the Polish People's Party from 2015, so Tusk appointed a representative from one of the ruling coalition members to the most powerful position in the government, apart from his own. This is both trust and a signal to rural conservative Poland that the country will defend itself, whatever happens.
Another representative from the coalition in a top government position is Krzysztof Gawkowski, representing the political alliance "The Left." He is appointed deputy prime minister and minister of digitization, which is a crucial position, although not as key as the position held by Kosiniak-Kamysz.
A crucial role will be given to the minister of justice in this government, as, as mentioned initially, there are significant disagreements between Brussels and Warsaw regarding the independence of the judicial branch in Poland. This position is occupied by former human rights activist and ombudsman, representative of the Civic Coalition(KO) Adam Bodnar. An important detail is that Mr. Bodnar comes from a Ukrainian-Polish family, but born in Poland. His father, of Ukrainian descent, suffered in childhood during the "Vistula" operation in 1947 when approximately 150,000 ethnic Ukrainians were forcibly resettled from the south-eastern regions of Poland.
Bodnar's figure is absolutely relevant to the task of restoring and strengthening the independence of the judiciary, so Tusk will have certain guarantees in this direction. Therefore, his government will have justified expectations that the funding from the EU will be unimpeded.
Just-appointed finance minister Andrzej Domański also represents KO in the government. He is a professional economist with strong experience in capital markets. Like Bodnar, Domański was elected to parliament from the Civic Coalition. But while Bodnar was elected to the Senate, Domański was elected to the lower house, the Sejm.
As we can see, Tusk's government is expected to be quite managed in key directions, although there will be quite a few challenges in coordinating actions within the "four-headed" ruling coalition.