The Second Step Towards the Demise of the Axis of Evil

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria cannot be labelled a "black swan" event, as it has been anticipated for 13 years since the start of the civil war in 2011. However, these developments in the Middle East might become a "black swan" for several autocratic regimes, from Pyongyang to Tehran, and possibly even as far as the Kremlin. How events unfold will largely depend on the resolve of Washington, Tokyo, Berlin, London, Paris, and Seoul to seize this window of opportunity. If Russia's demonstrated failures in its war against Ukraine can be considered the first step towards dismantling the axis of evil, then the events in Syria represent the second step.

"This victory, my brothers, is historic for the region," declared Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), in his address at the iconic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, as reported by France24. While HTS spearheaded the offensive, leaders of the free world do not yet view this group as a viable partner for discussions about Syria's future, let alone the broader region.

A Window of Opportunity

Until recently, HTS was considered affiliated with al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, but it has increasingly sought to adopt a more respectable image. Despite these efforts, most Western governments still list HTS as a dangerous terrorist organisation. In stark contrast, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), dominated by Kurdish leadership, enjoy a positive reputation in Washington.

The cast of players on the Middle Eastern stage is strikingly diverse, complicating the response of developed nations to these events. "The regime's fall is a fundamental act of justice," said US President Joe Biden. He described the situation as a "historic opportunity" for Syrians to rebuild their country—not just its devastated cities but its democracy as well. Biden also emphasised the need to hold Assad accountable.

Against the backdrop of support for the various factions that toppled Assad, the US conducted a series of air and missile strikes on ISIS forces, seemingly to prevent extremist groups from exploiting the anti-Assad forces' victory. Meanwhile, the Israeli military targeted bases in southern Syria, which had been used for attacks on northern Israel.

As for Bashar al-Assad, Russia's Foreign Ministry announced on 8 December that the long-time dictator had stepped down, with Russian media reporting he had sought refuge in Russia. It seems the 53-year rule of the Assad dynasty has come to an end. However, the future of this war-torn country remains uncertain.

Is the Axis of Evil About to Crumble? Not Quite Yet

There are compelling arguments that peace and order could be restored in Syria. Chaos in the country was initially perpetuated by the Soviet Union and later by Putin's regime to drive up the cost of delivering Middle Eastern oil and gas to Western Europe.

The fall of Assad's regime opens the door for the construction of robust oil and gas pipeline systems from the Middle East to Turkey’s Mediterranean ports and even directly to the Balkans via Turkey. These opportunities should motivate the EU and NATO to maintain peace and stability in the region. However, there are formidable opponents to this scenario, primarily Russia and Iran. Tehran, in particular, has lost a valuable foothold for launching attacks on Israel.

If the axis of evil is seen as starting in Moscow and extending eastward through Tehran, this coalition of autocracies inclined towards state terrorism has suffered a significant blow—but nothing more for now. Russia has lost not only its military bases in the eastern Mediterranean but also its offensive momentum and much of its credibility in the global South.

Tehran: The Next Weak Link?

Tehran has also felt the pressure. On 26 October 2024, Israel directly engaged Iranian forces in combat, exposing the vulnerability of its most aggressive adversary. Moreover, it seems Tehran is struggling to acquire and implement Russian nuclear and missile technology. However, the most notable sanctions against Iran target its "grey" oil export channels.

On 3 December, the Biden administration expanded sanctions against Iran, targeting 35 organisations and vessels associated with Tehran's so-called "shadow fleet." This series of measures builds on earlier sanctions imposed on 11 October in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel on 1 October and its expanding military nuclear programme.

The EU has taken a similar approach. On 18 November, Brussels imposed sanctions on individuals, companies, and ships involved in the development, production, and transfer of Iranian missiles and drones to Russia. The restrictions also cover the supply of components, materials, and equipment that could be used to develop such weapons. This is merely the latest in a series of sanctions, with a similar package introduced on 14 October.

Despite increased pressure on Tehran, Beijing remains a steadfast importer of Iranian oil, just as it is of Russian oil. This means the revenues China earns from exporting goods to the EU and the US are used to purchase oil from two of the most notorious autocracies. These regimes, in turn, fund threats against the EU and the US with their oil revenues.

So far, the G7 has only caused minor discomfort for Beijing regarding its technological, diplomatic, and military support for Moscow and Tehran. However, Assad’s fall may present intriguing new dynamics in this regard.