Trump and NATO

For months now, the US media have been running a pre-election media project called "If Trump Wins," publishing predictions of what the White House's foreign and domestic policies might be if Donald Trump is elected to a second term.

With regard to domestic policy, the experts demonstrate a polarity of opinions. This is not surprising, since, for example, almost all economic forecasts regarding the actions of the current US President Joe Biden turned out to be irrelevant. President Biden supported everything Trump did in an effort to "make America great again." In particular, he took steps to support the development of the domestic manufacturing cluster, fight inflation and unemployment, etc.

In terms of foreign policy, almost all forecasts agree that Trump will start reducing spending on security projects that are not directly related to US defense. In particular, they predict a possible US withdrawal from NATO, based on Trump's threat in 2018 that "European conflicts are not worth American lives. Abandoning Europe will save this country millions of dollars every year."

Candidate Trump and President Trump Are Two Different Trumps

The next US presidential election will take place in November 2024. Given that Trump and Biden are neck-and-neck in public opinion polls, a Trump victory seems likely. However, it would be wrong to assume that either team, Republican or Democrat, would fully implement its election promises. They realize the political interests and interests of party sponsors and large and organized groups of voters. 

Elections in the United States are not limited to and do not end with the presidential ones. Rotations in Congress and the struggle for situational advantage between the two most powerful political forces in the United States take place almost every two years. Every two years, one third of the Senate changes via rotational elections. The American establishment has built a fairly robust system of checks and balances that prevent the president from taking uncoordinated and dramatic steps that could significantly change the balance of power in both domestic and foreign policy.

What was relevant in 2018 is a relic of the past in 2024. In addition, institutionally and possibly politically, withdrawing from NATO could be difficult for Trump. As soon as he announces his intentions, a constitutional crisis could begin in the United States. According to the US Constitution, the State Department needs the approval of the Senate to conclude treaties, but the Constitution says nothing about parliamentary approval of withdrawal from treaties. In addition, a governmental crisis is also possible, because a wide range of people - former commanders-in-chief of the armed services, former chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, former U.S. presidents, etc. - will probably unite to defend NATO.

Moreover, Trump has been actively promoting his "Make America Great Again" program during his third presidential race (he lost the second one to current US President Joe Biden). This program, in addition to economic and social factors, includes a security component. Withdrawal from NATO or simply unwillingness to fulfill its allied obligations to European countries means a reduction of more than 70,000 U.S. troops and their tactical nuclear weapons currently based in Europe. 

Reducing the army and its expenditures, returning tens of thousands of demotivated ex-military personnel to the United States is a major social problem that will have to be addressed. It begs the question: what to do with the tactical nuclear weapons in US bases in Europe? How much would their withdrawal cost the US budget? Would it be possible to leave them to allies? What is the mechanism for transferring weapons? At the same time, both withdrawing and transferring tactical nuclear weapons to allies would mean a reduction of the American nuclear arsenal, favoring Russia. If they are returned to the United States, at what cost, where will they be stored, and who will be responsible for this? 

There are no answers to these questions, but each question is followed by political opposition to the decision, which may lead to constitutional and governmental crises. Internal political and intra-party crises may also arise. Aforementioned issues serve as the tip of the iceberg that the United States would face if it left NATO. This would not benefit Trump's program to increase the country's greatness. Therefore, one should understand that candidate Trump and President Trump are different politicians in terms of their behavior.

NATO Is a Tool for Implementing US Foreign Policy

It is also worth noting that NATO, as a collective security system, ensures the leadership of the United States both in Europe and in the world at large. That is, leaving the Alliance would undermine America’s other allied relations with partners and countries outside the bloc. Therefore, Trump used the speculations about the US withdrawal from NATO only to make European states increase their spending on the military segment to 5% of their budgets.

Importantly, allied relations are not only about military cooperation. They facilitate joint trade, as well as scientific and technological programs. It is also a matter of standardization in various fields, primarily in the field of public administration and in the field of law.

Also, a possible U.S. withdrawal from NATO would affect the security situation in all regions of the world, not just Europe. As soon as Trump makes it clear that the United States is going to break off relations with the bloc, all other American security alliances will also be at risk. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and even Israel will find that they can no longer count on automatic US support.

In other words, the United States would become an unreliable ally, leading to all its partners insuring risks. Some European countries may choose to cooperate with Russia. Some countries will reorient to closer cooperation with China. As a result, American economic influence will also decline. Trade agreements and financial arrangements will change, affecting American companies and, ultimately, the US economy.

Withdrawal from NATO could be the beginning of the end of the US as a superpower. The costs that are currently being spent on maintaining this status are paying off precisely because of the opportunity to influence the global economy and politics, using the Alliance as a tool for this influence. Trump, as a politician, cannot fail to realize this. Therefore, changing the existing Status Quo is not in his interests or in the interests of the United States.