Putin Goes All In
Ukraine is experiencing intense military and political pressure. Vladimir Putin is attempting to lay down as many cards as possible ahead of the US elections and the BRICS summit, which is set to take place in Russia next week. In reality, the fate of the entire world is being decided on the Ukrainian plains: whether it will soon continue its path towards the spread of democracy and return to relatively peaceful times, or whether it will finally shift towards the dominance of totalitarian autocracies and total wars.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports daily on what a modern high-intensity war looks like: between 100 and 200 combat clashes occur on the front line every day, with no fewer than 20 heavy kamikaze drone attacks per day, sometimes exceeding a hundred. Constant missile strikes range from a few ballistic missiles a day to several dozen. Overall, this is significantly more than a year or two ago.
A year or two? Yes, Ukraine is now in the midst of a war, the largest in the world since the Second World War. It is likely the largest not only in Europe in terms of the variety and quantity of weapons used. Yes, this war has been going on for more than two and a half years, and soon it could reach three.
The world is feverish from Russia's aggressive and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The cost and regularity of global food supplies, problems with shipping security, and increasing tensions even beyond the region are all consequences of Russia’s invasion. And right now, the intensity of the fighting on the Ukrainian-Russian front is escalating. Russian air attacks are targeting not only Ukrainian military positions. Every day, Russian missiles, heavy drones, and glide bombs hit civilian buildings, energy facilities, and trade ports both deep within Ukraine and near the front line.
Photo: In response to Russian threats: On 14 October, NATO launched its annual nuclear drills involving 60 aircraft over Western Europe. Source: NATO
Hot Autumn 2024
Most of the combat is currently taking place in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, in the east and northeast of Ukraine. Tensions are also high in Russia’s Kursk region, which borders northeastern Ukraine. In the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, located in the southeast of Ukraine, the situation is also tense, but the intensity of the fighting is significantly lower.
Tens of thousands of soldiers from both sides are involved in the fighting, alongside dozens of tanks, hundreds of artillery guns, and multiple rocket launch systems. Small-range kamikaze drones, known as FPV drones, are widely used. All of this results in heavy losses. The Ukrainian command does not disclose the number of wounded and dead in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), but they do publish the confirmed losses of the enemy.
Typically, the General Staff's daily report includes figures showing Russian personnel losses more 1,000, combining the wounded and killed, along with the loss of around ten combat tanks, several dozen armoured vehicles, and artillery systems. The daily summary reports, as well as the overall figures of Russian losses since the invasion began on 24 February 2022, do not differentiate between irrecoverable and sanitary losses (i.e., wounded). There is also no data on those who died later from their injuries or became unfit for further military service.
Occasionally, reports detail the outcomes of battles in specific areas. For example, on one of the hottest fronts—the Pokrovsk direction in the west of the Donetsk region—Russian forces attacked 38 times on 14 October. Preliminary figures from the General Staff reported around 150 Russian soldiers wounded and 148 killed. Five IFVs and four units of automotive equipment were destroyed, and eight Russian armoured vehicles were damaged. Considering that 189 combat clashes occurred across the Ukrainian-Russian front that same day, it is possible to estimate Russian losses. One can also refer to the overall Russian losses reported by the Ukrainian command, which include both the dead and wounded.
It seems that in autumn 2024, Russian forces are losing at least 500 soldiers killed and at least 700 seriously wounded every day in fierce fighting.
However, these losses do not stop the Russian command from sending more and more soldiers into the hell of war. There is already information that North Korean units are reinforcing Russian troops. This was revealed on 14 October, almost simultaneously with the news that Putin submitted a draft law to the State Duma of the Russian Federation to ratify the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with North Korea, signed in Pyongyang on 19 June 2024. The most discussed article of the treaty states that "if one of the parties is subjected to an armed attack by any state or several states and thus finds itself in a state of war, the other party will immediately provide military and other assistance with all available means."
North Korea is not the only open or indirect partner of Moscow in its aggressive war against Ukraine.
Photo: Consequences of an airstrike on the city of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine. Source: State Emergency Service of Ukraine
Pyongyang, Tehran, Beijing, Who Else?
The war in Ukraine has opened Pandora’s box. Tehran, Beijing, and others have taken advantage of the situation. Each autocracy is solving its problems with Moscow's help. They supply weapons and dual-use goods with varying levels of intensity and openness. China provides a stream of microelectronics, equipment, engines, and semi-finished products for Russia to manufacture its own weapons. Meanwhile, North Korea and Iran supply ballistic missiles, drones, artillery shells, guns, and more.
In return, these autocracies gain access to Russian raw materials under special conditions. Iran, for instance, is eager for Russian nuclear technologies. The fact that Russia is violating international non-proliferation treaties goes unnoticed by G7 countries, the EU, and other key international players. The global security system was truly dismantled 10 years ago when Russia, in defiance of international agreements, annexed part of Ukrainian territory.
Moreover, it was exactly 10 years ago that the Budapest Memorandum, signed on 5 December 1994 between Ukraine, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, guaranteeing Ukraine's security in exchange for its nuclear disarmament, was ignored. Later, the guarantor countries did not react to Russia’s breach of the memorandum. As a result, the world now hears nuclear threats from Moscow in the event of a defeat by Ukraine in a conventional war.
The failure to uphold the guarantees to Ukraine has also triggered a renewed nuclear arms race in many countries that had concealed their nuclear ambitions. For instance, Tehran has repeatedly and cynically emphasised its pursuit of nuclear status, citing the lack of security guarantees for non-nuclear countries. The cynicism of Iran's claims lies in its desire, as demonstrated in the events of April and October 2024, not for peace but to gain the same impunity for aggressive policies that Moscow currently enjoys.
Photo: In 1994, Ukraine agreed to relinquish the nuclear weapons it inherited from the USSR in exchange for guarantees of territorial integrity. However, these guarantees failed both in 2014 and 2022. Signing of the memorandum in Budapest, 1994. Source: Wiki
Ukraine Resists
"Drones, EW, artillery. Partner investments. Our capabilities. By the end of this month, we will have specific new contracts in our Ukrainian defence industry," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening video address to Ukrainians on 15 October. This is perhaps the essence of what is happening in Ukraine.
In Kyiv, and not only there, many believed after the cancellation of the Ramstein group meeting on Ukraine's support that new strong decisions on the topic were unlikely before the results of the US elections were announced. However, the few days following the decision to cancel the Ramstein summit on 12 October show that developed countries now understand their own responsibility to support Ukraine. It seems the era of European "free riders" has ended. This happened not today but in spring 2024, when EU and NATO countries launched independent arms and financial support programmes for Ukraine, separate from the US.
Photo: The Ukrainian army is actively using drones, with the government striving to increase drone supplies to the troops. Source: 93rd Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar"
A few days after the cancellation of October's Ramstein, Volodymyr Zelensky made four blitz visits to Britain, France, Italy, and Germany. During those meetings, Zelensky received confirmation of security packages that were to be announced on 12 October. Several other announcements were made separately from European capitals. For example, Bucharest confirmed the provision of a Patriot missile system to Ukraine. In Brussels, Josep Borrell, the head of European diplomacy, announced the strengthening of the EUMAM mission, under which the EU supports training programmes for Ukrainian military personnel. It is also expected that by the end of October, a loan of EUR 35 billion to Ukraine will be finally approved by the European Council.
Photo: A severe shortage of modern weapons creates significant challenges for Ukrainian forces. Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Moreover, an attack has begun on the "sacred"—Russia’s energy export revenues. The EU has begun preparing for a complete rejection of Russian gas, both piped and liquefied natural gas. This could signal the launch of truly powerful, crippling economic sanctions aimed at undermining Russia’s financial and technological capacity to wage its aggressive war. On 17 October, Volodymyr Zelensky is set to present his Victory Plan at the European Council meeting. Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative, announced this on 14 October, immediately following the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting. A difficult winter lies ahead, but Ukraine resists.