The War Hasn't Halted the EU's Green Deal
The new composition of the European Commission will continue to push the Green Agenda despite strong opposition from conservatives. Reducing the consumption of fossil fuels will be the main goal, with a promise from re-elected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to accelerate the carbon footprint reduction schedule. However, to mitigate the consequences of decarbonisation, the use of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles may be extended, provided they use e-fuel. Europe also plans massive investments in the development of electricity, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide transmission networks. This is not only to reduce the carbon footprint but also to eliminate dependency on Russian oil and gas amidst the aggressive war Russia is waging against Ukraine.
Inherited from the previous European Parliament (EP) are ambitious plans to reduce the carbon footprint. The new EP seems poised to strengthen these requirements, although there is considerable opposition from conservatives and the far-right. In line with the carbon neutrality goal, the European Parliament in 2023 agreed to gradually phase out the sale of fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2035.
Throughout 2023, the European Parliament was focused on renewing the drive towards carbon neutrality. The term "renewing" is the most accurate, as the momentum was slowed in 2020 by the more immediate threat of the COVID-19 pandemic. In May 2022, the EU adopted the RePowerEU programme, which was intended to address both the threat of climate change and the threat of energy blackmail by Russia. However, the energy crisis of 2022, triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine, posed an obstacle. Nevertheless, in 2023, the European Commission actively advocated for carbon neutrality. This marked a return to the fervour of 2019 when the most vigorous fight against climate change began. The EU's green transition can generally be divided into two stages, with the ultimate goal of achieving a zero-carbon footprint.
By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 55% from the 1990 level. This initiative, called Fit for 55, was introduced as an extension of the Green Deal in July 2021. It was further strengthened in May 2022. Over the next 20 years, from 2030 to 2050, the European Union aims to achieve full carbon neutrality. Currently, the EU ranks third after China and the US in contributing to carbon dioxide pollution.
Challenges of War
On 18 July, Ursula von der Leyen presented her programme to the European Parliament as a candidate for the position of President of the European Commission for 2024-2029. In her speech, she referred to moments from her previous term that gave her "chills down the spine," highlighting the war in Ukraine and the support for its struggle against Russian aggressors.
As her priorities for the new term, she listed supporting Ukraine and achieving a "just and durable peace for a free and independent country," as well as EU investments in its security and defence. She also emphasised that the expansion of the EU would be a "main priority" for the European Commission under her leadership. Von der Leyen focused heavily on strengthening the resilience of the EU, particularly supply chains and energy resilience. Naturally, this involved the Green Transition, as resilience against the threat of Russian energy blackmail, such as in the second half of 2022, presents a challenge. The green transition is a response to this challenge, just as it is a means of combating climate change.
In her speech, von der Leyen committed to proposing new climate policies, including a legally binding goal for the EU to reduce emissions by 90% by 2040. Thus, the timeline now looks as follows:
By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced to 45% of the 1990 level, a 55% reduction as previously mentioned.
By 2040, greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced to 10% of the 1990 level, a tenfold reduction from the starting point.
By 2050, the European Union should achieve full carbon neutrality.
In the previous European Commission, Kadri Simson (Estonia) was appointed as the Commissioner for Energy. She will hold this position for another four months. The appointment of the new commissioners will be in early autumn. It is unlikely she will remain in this position, as another Estonian politician, Kaja Kallas, will hold the position of High Representative for Foreign Affairs. However, there is no doubt that Kadri Simson will use the remaining months as effectively as possible to promote the ongoing changes.
Photo: Kadri Simson: "REPowerEU has accelerated the transition to clean energy and enhanced Europe's energy security and sustainability." Source: Kadri Simson X (formerly Twitter)
"...One Thing We Didn't Plan at the Start of This Term Is... Russia's War Against Ukraine"
Key Messages from Commissioner Kadri Simson's Speech at the Lunchtime Discussion of the European Energy Forum on 16 July:
"...we have revised almost every part of the EU's energy legislation in line with the most ambitious European reform and modernisation programme, the Green Deal.
But one thing we didn't plan at the start of this term is Russia's illegal and unjustified aggressive war against Ukraine.
This has been the most significant moment for EU energy policy in recent years.
Even before the invasion, the Kremlin began using gas supplies as a weapon and blackmailing some member states.
We faced the worst energy crisis Europe has ever encountered. Or at least the worst since the 1970s.
In such challenging conditions, Europe's unity could have crumbled.
This was Putin's goal and expectation.
But we united and maintained political solidarity. We even accelerated our green push.
Initially, we responded with a series of short-term emergency measures.
These helped to reduce market volatility, address energy supply issues, and redirect excessive energy sector revenues to citizens and businesses.
The next step was to end our dangerous over-dependence on Russian gas under REPowerEU.
Two years later, the results are evident.
Russia's share in EU gas imports has significantly dropped: from 45% in 2021 to 15% last year.
We exited last winter with a record level of gas reserves, around 60%.
And more importantly, as already mentioned, we also accelerated the clean transition.
Newly installed solar and wind capacities reached over 100 GW in two years, saving 24 billion cubic metres of gas.
The share of renewable energy in electricity production last year jumped to almost 45%.
The bottom line is: REPowerEU has accelerated the transition to clean energy and enhanced Europe's energy security and sustainability."
Obstacles in the Way
But there are also obstacles to the green transition. Since autumn 2023, there have been several protests by farmers against what they consider the overly rapid implementation of measures for biodiversity and the exclusion of chemical plant protection products, as well as crop rotation regulations. Therefore, in mid-March 2024, the European Commission proposed to relax or even repeal some of the stringent "green" criteria of the new Common Agricultural Policy (2023-2027), which came into effect last year.
However, the controversial law on nature conservation, aimed at restoring natural habitats, continued to make progress. On 17 June, it was approved by the EU environment ministers after the European Parliament voted for it at the end of February. This nature restoration law aims to revive forests, wetlands, and rivers. Its provisions would impose significant restrictions on farmers, leading to their vehement protests.
Another compromise is the situation around internal combustion engine vehicles. It seems their lifespan will be extended. During her speech on 18 July, Ursula von der Leyen shed some light on how she plans to implement the EU policy to ban the sale of new CO2-emitting cars by 2035.
Photo: Ursula von der Leyen: "We must and will continue on the path to achieving the goals outlined in the European Green Deal." Source: Ursula von der Leyen X (formerly Twitter)
Both car users and manufacturers, as well as investors, opposed the overly strict conditions and deadlines. The proposed solution is that cars running on so-called electronic fuel (e-fuel) can be counted among those that do not create CO2 emissions. If this is indeed implemented with the necessary guarantees against the use of fossil fuels, it could solve the problem and extend the lifespan of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles.
It should be noted that electronic fuel is a type of synthetic fuel produced using captured carbon dioxide or carbon monoxide along with hydrogen derived from water. Of course, the electricity used for water splitting must come from low-carbon sources—wind, solar, and nuclear power plants.