Putin's Threat to Europe: From the Dnipro to the Vistula and the Rhine

The first truly public presentation of Ukraine's victory plan by President Volodymyr Zelensky attracted attention but has yet to receive unanimous support from Kyiv's partners. Quick approval was not expected, as this ambitious plan includes one crucial precondition: Ukraine’s partners must finally accept that the Ukrainian military and civilians are the front line between Russian aggression and European countries. Only when this reality is acknowledged and forms the basis for decisions and actions by European leaders will the plan, presented in Brussels, become a reality. Of course, Europe could continue to “look the other way” and ignore this fact, but if they do, Putin's forces may eventually cross not only the Dnipro, but also the Vistula, the Spree, the Rhine, and the Danube.

While Ukrainians are primarily defending themselves, if they fall, Russian tanks, bombs, and missiles will not stop at Ukrainian cities but will target Polish, Slovak, Czech, and German cities – continuing westward to the Atlantic coast. President Zelensky reminded the audience of this in his speech presenting the victory plan: “This is not just about defending Ukraine; it’s about protecting the Baltic States, Scandinavia, Poland, the Balkans, and other regions and partners Russia has in its sights.”

The growing threat from Russia is well understood by those who are grounded in reality. The Baltic countries—Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia—together with neighbouring Poland, are making enormous efforts to strengthen their defences in the face of this danger.

Unfortunately, the understanding of the full scale of the Russian threat is coming too slowly. This delay raises the risk that Putin will act before Europe is ready.

The Plan Amidst Partners' Uncertainty

This contradiction has plagued NATO’s approach since 24 February 2022. While European countries and the United States want Ukraine to win, they are hesitant to provide the level of support truly required for Ukraine’s victory. The reasons are clear. In the US, there are other priorities beyond Ukraine, such as the Taiwan Strait and the Middle East. EU countries and the UK still have longstanding economic benefits from “business as usual” with Russia. Moreover, on both sides of the Atlantic, there are concerns about escalating tensions with Russia.

These factors create a false impression that simply signing a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow—at any cost—will resolve the situation permanently.

The bad news is that nothing will be resolved. On the contrary, this would give Putin the chance to rebuild his military capabilities, with help from his allies, drawing on the experience gained in Ukraine. Such a scenario would be portrayed by the Kremlin's powerful propaganda machine as a victory. This narrative would encourage other authoritarian regimes to engage in aggressive actions against their neighbours or even countries further afield. As a result, new conflicts would likely erupt in the Taiwan Strait and the Middle East.

“Putin must respect our strength, not force the free world to tremble at his threats,” said Zelensky during the presentation of his plan.

One scenario for bringing Russia to the negotiating table involves the US enforcing a settlement. The idea is that Russia and Ukraine could be compelled to negotiate a peace agreement. However, no diplomatic or sanctions-based pressure could, under current conditions, force Putin into an agreement that includes the return of occupied Ukrainian territories. And no such pressure guarantees that Putin would not, a few years later, attempt once again to capture Kyiv and push towards Ukraine’s western border, as he tried to do in February 2022.

The reference to “current conditions” right now means the absence of truly crippling sanctions against the aggressor state and the lack of significant military aid to Ukraine, compounded by restrictions on the effective use of such aid.

Forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table for a humiliating peace is feasible—it is heavily dependent on financial and defence assistance from its partners. But forcing Russia to return seized territories and abandon its aggression is not possible under current conditions. This requires entirely different starting points.

The creation of such conditions is the core of the five points of Zelensky’s victory plan, which he presented in Brussels on 17 October.

Five Points, Summarised

The first point of the plan is Ukraine’s immediate invitation to join NATO. This decisive step would provide Ukraine with genuine security guarantees. “This would be one of the main arguments to stop the war,” Zelensky insists.

The second point is the strengthening of Ukraine’s defence capabilities. “It’s entirely possible to hold the front lines within Ukraine and simultaneously bring the war to Russia, so the Russians feel what war is like and start hating Putin for it... We have a clear list of weapons that would enable us to achieve this,” Zelensky explained.

This point includes supplying more weapons, removing restrictions on their use, investing in Ukraine’s defence industry, and establishing joint production.

The third point is real pressure on Russia. Zelensky calls for the deployment of a deterrence package on Ukrainian soil, which would either force Russia into real peace talks or allow for the destruction of their military infrastructure. “This involves a missile package,” Zelensky emphasised, noting that Ukraine has provided detailed plans to its partner countries, including the US, UK, France, Italy, and Germany.

In the fourth point, Zelensky proposed that the EU, the US, and other global partners sign a special agreement to protect Ukraine’s critical resources. This would prevent Russia from exploiting Ukraine’s resources, worth trillions of dollars, to strengthen its position. The resources in question include titanium, uranium, lithium, graphite, manganese, and many others.

The fifth point involves engaging Ukraine’s experienced and well-equipped military for peacekeeping and defence tasks in Europe or “wherever we agree,” as stated in Zelensky's speech. “But to achieve this, of course, we need to win,” he added.

The reaction to his plan was muted, but for the first time, it is being seen as a genuine plan. What has changed compared to six months ago?

It is increasingly clear that a peace agreement, even one imposed from the outside, will not provide a long-term solution to the problem known as Putin’s attempt to restore the Russian colonial empire. Putin has not yet abandoned his goal of making Ukraine a Russian colony again. Given that a war-ravaged Ukraine would be unable to defend itself, no settlement could last long without long-term Western security guarantees for Ukraine. Lasting peace in Europe and a clear message to distant autocracies are impossible without military and financial aid to Ukraine. This aid is necessary to ensure that the idea of reigniting the conflict becomes definitively unacceptable to Putin.